Chinese festival information
travel passenger transport: the local festival trend is obvious, and the total passenger flow runs at a medium and low level
during the Spring Festival, in order to prevent the spread of covid-19 epidemic, local festivals and welcoming the Winter Olympic Games are advocated, and the passenger flow is lower than the level before the epidemic. according to Baidu insight, during the period from December 11 to the third day of the first month of this year, the daily average of the national migration scale index was 406.32, a year-on-year increase of 61.4% compared with 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% compared with 2020, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% compared with 2019 spring transportation before the outbreak. The deputy director of the Ministry of transportation said that the number of passengers sent by the National Spring Festival Transportation Office was 29.071 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05% compared with that in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 2.05% compared with that in 2021. On January 20, according to the preliminary arrangement of the Ministry of Commerce, the number of local festivals in 36 large and medium-sized cities this year increased by more than 48 million over previous years.
epidemic prevention and control: during the Spring Festival transportation, the risk of spread increases, and the epidemic is distributed in local spots
during the Spring Festival, there is a large mobility and aggregation of people, so we still need to be aware of the risk of epidemic spread after the festival. on February 4, 27 new cases were confirmed in 31 provinces of China and Xinjiang Construction Corps, and 224 new cases were confirmed from New Year’s Eve to the fourth day of the new year, including 105 Local cases (including 34 in Tianjin, 31 in Zhejiang, 27 in Guangdong, 8 in Beijing and 5 in Hebei). As of 20:00 on February 4, there were 7 high-risk areas in China (2 in Tianjin, 4 in Beijing and 1 in Zhejiang); 56 medium risk areas.
film box office: the box office of the Spring Festival is hot, and the ticket price of the film rises
this year’s Spring Festival has rich types of stalls and popular box office, showing the characteristics of price increase and volume decrease. on January 12, the lighthouse Research Institute predicted that the box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 would be between 7 billion and 8 billion yuan. According to the data of cat eye professional edition, as of 00:102022 on February 5, the total box office of New Spring Festival films (including pre-sale) exceeded 4.6 billion yuan, of which the box office of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” was 1.98 billion yuan, far ahead, followed by “the killer is not too calm” and “miracle stupid child”. The average ticket price for the Spring Festival this year reached 55.2 yuan, compared with 48.88 yuan in 2021 and 44.66 yuan in 2019.
other information: the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics and the warming of ice and snow sports
the Spring Festival has boosted catering tourism, the Beijing Winter Olympics has driven the enthusiasm of ice and snow sports, and “300 million people on ice and snow” has gradually become a reality. The opening ceremony of the 24th Winter Olympic Games was held at the National Stadium on the evening of February 4. Four days before the Spring Festival holiday, Beijing scenic spots received 3.941 million tourists (excluding global resort), a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% compared with 2021 and an increase of 1.5 times compared with 2020. Ice and snow tourism continued to grow. According to the big data of flying pigs on January 20, the number of ice and snow tourism bookings for the Spring Festival this year increased by 484% year-on-year. In addition, the “2022 national online New Year’s festival” is selling well. According to tmall, the sales of prefabricated dishes increased 16 times year-on-year, ranking first among the top ten new year’s goods.
overseas macro economy
United States: economic growth exceeded expectations, and non farm employment was strong in January
2021q4 final value of GDP month on month equivalent annual rate + 6.9% (expected + 5.5%, previous value + 2.3%);
In January, the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 467000 (it is expected to be 125000, compared with the previous value of 510000); Of which: the number of manufacturing employment increased by 13000 (expected to be 20000, compared with the previous value of 26000);
The unemployment rate in January was 4.0% (expected to be 3.9%, the previous value was 3.9%);
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the weekly survey on January 29 was 238000 (expected 245000, the previous value was 261000);
The change of ADP employment in January was – 301000 (expected + 180000, previous value + 776000);
In January, ISM manufacturing PMI reported 57.6 (expected 57.5, previous value 58.8);
In January, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index reported 67.2 (expected 68.8, previous 68.8);
Personal income in December 2021 was + 0.3% (expected + 0.5%, previous value + 0.7%);
Personal expenditure in December 2021 was – 0.6% (expected – 0.6%, previous value + 0.6%);
Factory orders in December 2021 were – 0.4% (expected – 0.4%, previous value + 1.6%);
The initial value of durable goods orders in December 2021 was – 0.7% (expected – 0.9%, previous value – 0.9%);
eurozone: economic growth is slightly lower than expected, and inflation in the eurozone is rising
2021q4 GDP seasonally adjusted + 0.3% (expected + 0.4%, previous value + 2.2%), year-on-year + 4.6% (expected + 4.6%, previous value + 3.9%);
CPI in January was + 0.3% (expected to be – 0.4%, + 0.4%); Core CPI + 2.3% (expected + 1.9%, previous value + 2.6%);
In January, Markit manufacturing PMI reported 58.7 (expected 59.0, previous value 59.0), comprehensive PMI reported 52.3 (expected 52.4, previous value 52.4), and service PMI reported 51.1 (expected 51.2, previous value 51.2);
The unemployment rate in December 2021 was + 7.0% (expected + 7.1%, previous value + 7.2%);
global epidemic: gradual deregulation in many countries and the spread of Omicron subspecies in South America
· as of 22:39 Beijing time on February 4, 2022, the global confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia have risen to 3886859, including 5715128 deaths, 75994966 new cases in the United States, 17727681 in the United Kingdom and 10729495 in Germany;
· who: the population immunity to covid-19 virus in Europe is enhanced and is expected to enjoy a long period of calm; (February 3)
· South African scientists: known as ba The Omicron variant strain subspecies of 2 is spreading rapidly in South Africa and may cause a second infection peak in the current epidemic wave; (February 2)
· who: five African countries have reported the Omicron strain ba Infection cases of 2 subspecies; (February 3)
overview of overseas policies
United States: expected rise in interest rate
· Bostic of the Federal Reserve: the most likely scenario is to raise interest rates three times a year from March, with 25 basis points each time; If a more aggressive approach is needed to curb inflation, the Fed may choose to raise interest rates by 50 basis points; (January 31)
· Federal Reserve Daly: it is expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as soon as March. At present, we see extensive inflationary pressure; We should change monetary policy step by step, and do not think that policy adjustment will undermine the fundamentals of a strong labor market; (February 1)
· Bostic of the Federal Reserve: raising interest rates by 50 basis points is not the “preferred action” of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting; It is expected to raise interest rates three times this year, but it depends on many future data; (February 1)
· Harker of the Federal Reserve: it favors raising interest rates four times this year, 25 basis points each time. Although 50 basis points are not excluded, it is not in favor at present; (February 1)
· Bullard of the Federal Reserve: it supports the interest rate increase at the meeting in March. If a decision is made now, it will consider the possibility of interest rate increase at the meeting in May; (February 2)
· Democratic Senator manqin of the United States: President Biden’s $2 trillion “reconstruction for a better” plan is “dead”, and any negotiations on restarting key parts must start from scratch; (February 2)
· former US Treasury Secretary summers: the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates seven times during the year and may increase more than 25 basis points at a time; (February 4)
· Federal Reserve: the decision to appoint Powell as interim chairman of the Federal Reserve will take effect on the 5th, which will enable Powell to continue to perform his duties after the end of his first four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve; (February 4)
euro zone: the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and suggested inflation risk
· inflation in the euro zone reached an unexpected high. The chairman of the euro group said that the inflation rate would fall below the ECB’s target of 2% in 2023; (February 2)
· ECB: the asset purchase plan will be implemented at the rate of 40 billion euros per month in the second quarter and 30 billion euros per month in the third quarter.
From October 2022, the asset purchase plan will be implemented at the rate of 20 billion euros per month; (February 3)
· ECB Lagarde: there are signs that the supply bottleneck may begin to ease. The global economic recovery has contributed to an optimistic outlook. Most potential inflation indicators have risen; (February 3)
UK: two consecutive interest rate meetings raised interest rates and entered the tightening cycle
· Bank of England: raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%, with a voting ratio of 5-4. Among them, four members of the monetary policy committee hope to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%; (February 3)
· Bailey of the Bank of England: it supports the interest rate increase by 25 basis points and believes that it is wise to adjust the interest rate step by step; Rising global energy and import prices will inevitably push up inflation and put pressure on income; (February 3)
global market trend
stock market
with the economic recovery and the growing concern about high inflation, the UK and the European Central Bank have tightened successively, and the stock market as a whole has improved, but the volatility has increased significantly. after the US stock market rebounded for four consecutive days, the actions of the UK and the European Central Bank raised the expectation of tightening by the Federal Reserve, and the performance of weighted technology stocks was lower than expected, which became the trigger for the decline of US stocks. The multiple uncertainties of high inflation, geopolitical risks and repeated epidemics still exist. Hong Kong stocks made a good start on the first trading day of the year of the tiger. The concept sector of sporting goods rose strongly, and the premium of ah shares narrowed.
bond market
non farm employment in the United States was strong in January. Combined with the hawks of the European and British central banks, bond yields of major developed countries rose sharply under the expectation of global tightening. the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike has warmed up. The ten-year US bond yield has increased by 1.9%, the ten-year UK bond yield has risen to 1.4%, and the ten-year German bond yield has risen to 0.2%. It has returned to a positive range since the epidemic.
goods
the imbalance between supply and demand pushed the oil price to exceed $90 / barrel, and the precious metals fluctuated upward. crude oil supply pressure became the biggest concern. The cold winter in the United States led to the shutdown of some oil production facilities, and geopolitical concerns also increased the upward risk of oil price. Brent crude oil futures stood at $92 / barrel. Precious metals fluctuated upward under the influence of the dollar index, tightening expectations of central banks and U.S. economic data, and most base metal prices fell.
post section information prompt
★ data
At 08:00 on February 7, China’s foreign exchange reserve data in January
09:45, February 7 China Caixin PMI data in January
At 21:30 on February 8, US trade balance data in December
From February 9 to February 15, China’s social finance and other financial data in January
At 23:00 on February 9, the monthly rate of wholesale inventory in the United States in December
At 21:30 on February 10, US January CPI data
At 21:30 on February 10, the number of Americans who claimed unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week on February 5
At 21:30 on February 10, the number of Americans who renewed unemployment benefits in the week of January 29
February 11 23:00 University of Michigan consumer confidence index
★ event
At 23:30 on February 9, Federal Reserve governor Bowman delivered a speech to Community Bankers
At 01:00 on February 10, the Federal Reserve mester delivered a speech on the prospects of the US economy and monetary policy
From 18:00 to 21:00 on February 10, OPEC released its monthly crude oil market report
At 04:15 on February 11, Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, delivered a speech
