The year of the ox leaves the old year and the year of the tiger welcomes the new year. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the volatility of the A-share market increased significantly, and the main line of investment was also quite chaotic. Now, the first trading day of the year of the tiger is about to open tomorrow. How can the private placement “Legion” with a large amount of money judge the future market and investment opportunities?
From the perspective of many 10 billion private placement investment strategies in the year of the tiger, a consensus is forming. A number of 10 billion private equity leaders said that the year of the tiger market is still dominated by shock and structural market, but after the adjustment in January, the cost performance of the high-profile track has gradually rebounded, and the undervalued blue chips related to steady growth will also show some performance.
under the tone of steady growth, A-Shares do not have a “bear market foundation”
At the beginning of 2022, A-Shares have been significantly adjusted, reflecting the market’s concerns about negative factors such as pressure on China’s economic growth, fluctuations in overseas markets and increased uncertainty of the epidemic. However, many private equity investors believe that under the policy tone of steady growth, the liquidity environment in the year of the tiger will be more friendly, and A-Shares do not have a “bear market basis”.
Deng Xiaofeng, partner and chief investment officer of Gaoyi assets, said that the macro economy and corporate profits will face certain pressure this year. After September 2021, there was a downward turning point in the real estate industry. The recurrence of the epidemic in the second half of the year also had an impact on many industries such as offline consumer services. This pressure will be shown in 2022. However, from a policy perspective, China has more policy space to deal with the pressure of economic growth. When the stimulus policy really starts to work, the economy can stabilize and recover, which will also provide a better investment window for the capital market.
According to the analysis of Chongyang investment, there is no doubt that China’s economic growth is under pressure. Under the resonance influence of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation, it is more difficult to stabilize growth in 2022. However, the market has fully expected and priced these factors since the second half of 2021, and the policy focus has been on the year of steady growth in history, which is the year of good performance and valuation expansion of A-share and even Hong Kong stock market.
In terms of total volume, stable growth is conducive to stabilizing the market’s expectations of economic growth and corporate profits.
Structurally, in the context of steady growth, the central government encourages all departments and regions to introduce policies conducive to economic stability, and the industrial policy and regulatory environment are more friendly to market players.
From the perspective of liquidity, the stabilization and recovery of the credit environment is conducive to the expansion of valuation, and the credit pulse is highly related to the change of market valuation. Therefore, the opportunity of the year of the tiger A-share market is still greater than the risk.
“Systematic bear markets are closely related to liquidity contraction, but the liquidity environment will be relatively friendly in 2022. Obviously, A-Shares do not have the factors to form a unilateral bear market.” Zhuang Tao, founder of Panjing investment, said frankly that this year, A-Shares will experience four stages: bottoming, stabilization, shock and differentiation. After the Spring Festival, the market should be able to see the bottom, and then it will gradually stabilize. According to the current valuation, the probability of A-share market shaking this year is very high.
in terms of industry layout, the “two hands” of high prosperity and steady growth
So, where is the sword of 10 billion private placement in the year of the tiger? The reporter learned that growth tracks such as new energy, science and technology and military industry are still their key focus. At the same time, undervalued blue chips related to steady growth are also an important layout direction.
The market is still in a structural pattern in the year of tiger stone, and the market is still in shock, said Hu Feng. In the future investment direction, we should pay attention to the balance between steady growth and growth stocks.
Yuanlesheng assets believes that 2022 is a year with friendly monetary and credit conditions, and the main investment line of the whole year will be “building a platform for steady growth and singing high growth”. Specifically, in 2022, we will dig deeper into the manufacturing and consumption sectors, and seek structural investment opportunities in new energy vehicles, semiconductors, energy storage, innovative drugs, Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) equipment, Baijiu and medical beauty industries.
Zhu Liang, executive partner of Danyi investment, also said that the more obvious the market decline before the Spring Festival, the greater the follow-up space. Specifically, the future opportunities mainly come from sectors with good fundamentals after digesting the overvalued value, such as SaaS in automotive electronics and software, industry information innovation and other subdivided fields, as well as post epidemic consumption recovery sectors, such as catering, aviation and other offline consumer industries.
Xia Junjie of Renqiao assets said that he was optimistic about the relative performance of auto parts, computer, non bank, Internet, medicine, electronics and other industries in 2022. “The opportunities in these industries are more bottom-up opportunities, and the selection of varieties needs to be patiently screened. Taking auto parts as an example, compared with the brilliance of complete vehicles in the past few years, we believe that the value of excellent parts companies needs to be revalued, and the market value ratio of complete vehicles to parts will return to the average level. At least the following factors support this revaluation process: first The fragmentation trend of the whole vehicle industry has improved the long-term voice of the auto parts industry; Second, in the past few years, due to the downturn in downstream production and sales, the capital expenditure of the auto parts industry has decreased, and the recovery of capacity utilization in the future can be expected; Third, in the process of electrification, lightweight and intellectualization, the upgrading of auto parts industry has great potential; Fourth, short-term negative impacts such as lack of core and rising prices of raw materials will gradually weaken. “
Lin Peng, chairman of harmony Huiyi, believes that after a significant adjustment in 2021, both A-share and Hong Kong stock blue chip sectors may face marginal improvement. Starting from the policy tone of steady growth, the pro cyclical industrial chain represented by real estate and infrastructure has investment opportunities for expected repair. The valuations of these sectors are at the bottom of history, and the industry pattern will be reshaped after the reshuffle. The longer-term investment opportunities come from technological innovation, and the follow-up is optimistic about the major product innovation cycle of smart cars and consumer electronics benefiting from the significant improvement of chip computing power; And the huge incremental value brought by the gradual implementation of the technological revolution in the fields of MR, VR and intelligent driving. The industrial chains related to these fields can tap the beneficial targets.
