The Spring Festival is really fast. The A-share market will open tomorrow.
These days, Niu Yanjun looked at his circle of friends and found many people basking in the snow. This year’s Spring Festival is really a little cold.
There were also a lot of important news this week, such as the Winter Olympics, the sharp rise of Hong Kong stocks, the UK interest rate hike, the meta share price avalanche, and crude oil breaking through $90.
before the festival, Niu Yanjun threw a question to everyone, that is, when this wave of market falls in place, what will be the bottom sector? Many netizens have expressed their expectation of raising interest rates in the year of tiger. So where are my chances of raising interest rates? During the festival, Niu Yanjun also thought about it. Today, Niu Yanjun will talk about it in combination with the external market performance and news during the Spring Festival.
Let’s start with Hong Kong stocks. They traded for half a day on Monday (New Year’s Eve), closed for three days and opened on Friday.
In the past two days, the Hang Seng Index has risen, with a sharp rise of 3.24% on Friday and a cumulative rise of 949 points or 4.02% in the two trading days.
On Friday, the market value at the top was basically rising. The major contributors to the index were new energy vehicles and Internet giants, such as Alibaba, baidu group, and Byd Company Limited(002594) shares, which rose 5.61%, 5.98%, 7.05% and more than 10% respectively. Banks and insurance also performed well.
if you take a closer look at the Hang Seng Index, you will find that it is not synchronized with the A-share index. From the figure below, the current point of the Hang Seng index is still lower than that in early 2019, while the current Shanghai stock index is significantly higher than that in early 2019. Therefore, whether the A-share index can fully replicate the strength of the Hang Seng Index in these two days after the festival may be a question mark.
In the U.S. stock market, metauniverse concept giant meta fell 26.39% on Thursday to see whether this news has an impact on the concept of A-share metauniverse.
In terms of the index, the Dow rose 1.05%, the NASDAQ rose 2.38% and the S & P rose 1.55% this week.
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in terms of major European stock indexes, the performance this week was average, with FTSE 100 up 0.67%, France CAC40 down 0.21%, Germany DAX down 1.43%, Europe 50 down 1.22% and Italy ftmib up 0.14%.
In terms of Asian stock indexes, the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.7% this week.
In terms of commodities, WTI crude oil futures exceeded $90 this week, and the main contract once reached $93.17 on Friday, with a settlement price of $92.31.
Soaring crude oil will increase the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike, which has been raised in the UK this week.
During the festival, Niu Yanjun repeated the US dollar interest rate increase cycle from the end of 2015 to the end of 2018 and found that the A-share market changed from growth style to value style. At that time, undervalued banks, real estate and household appliances were favored by institutions.
Of course, it also includes all kinds of Maos (at that time, the valuation of “Maogu” was reasonable and the certainty of performance growth was high) from the beginning of 2016 to the bottom of history, as well as the strongest track stock new energy sector.
This feature of weak market and heavy quality can also be reflected in the speculation of “five golden flowers” from the bear market rebound in 2013, while junk stocks continued to fall.
judging from the upcoming US dollar interest rate hike cycle, some time ago, track stocks fell sharply and bank stocks rose against the trend, which may be a sign of the switch from growth to value stocks.
Among the banking sector, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) has a strong trend in the near future. Among the top ten circulating shareholders of its 2021 third quarter report, Dongguan Golden Sun Abrasives Co.Ltd(300606) Gaoyi Guolu No. 1 Chongyuan fund under Gaoyi assets, a well-known institution, ranks the tenth largest circulating shareholder.
From the cash dividends of Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) and Bank Of China Limited(601988) over the years, the dividend rate is also good.
before the festival, Niu Yanjun listed two more important support positions of the capital line, with a 38% decline from the latest strong support and a nearly 60% decline from the second strong support. However, the rise and fall of the capital line is different from the index, so it can not be simply compared with the index.
after the stock index peaked at a record high of 5178 points in 2015, at the beginning of the market decline, the bank stocks also strengthened against the trend, but finally saw the bottom after the bank stocks completed the make-up decline. so will it be the same this time?
so when will you enter the growth style? From the perspective of capital line, the capital line fell to strong support at the end of 2018.
