introduction to this report
the year of the tiger of A-Shares is about to start, and the negative factors before the festival have been gradually weakened. The market will gradually recover with the upward repair of positive factors and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year. In terms of structural allocation, grasp the opportunities of consumption and infrastructure chain along the direction of undervaluation.
summary
general trend study and judgment: spring returns to the earth and the beginning of the year is getting warmer. the year of the tiger of A-Shares is about to start. We believe that the negative factors before the festival have been gradually weakened, and the market will gradually recover with the upward revision of positive factors and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year. 1) At the current time point, the negative factors before the festival have been significantly weakened. Before the holiday, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to increase, and the global equity market continued to adjust. However, during the Spring Festival, with the digestion of the negative impact of liquidity expectations, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. The adjustment of US stocks on Thursday was mainly due to the drag on the performance of heavyweights rather than the change of liquidity expectations. At the same time, considering that A-Shares have gradually priced the changes of liquidity expectations before the festival, the negative impact margin of overseas liquidity expectations will continue to weaken in the future. In addition, in terms of risk appetite, the geopolitical conflict between overseas Russia and Ukraine is alleviated, the credit risk of China’s real estate will also be gradually implemented, and the negative factors at the denominator end are significantly weakened. 2) Positive factors will be gradually revised upward. In January, the local two sessions were held one after another, with strong demands for steady growth. Many governments raised the target growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022, and infrastructure and manufacturing will become an important starting point. With the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated and put into force. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. On the whole, the market is expected to gradually warm up after the Spring Festival and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year.
U.S. stocks stabilized and rebounded, and the impact of interest rate hikes was gradually relieved, but the fluctuation of scientific and technological growth was amplified on the way of liquidity tightening. During the Spring Festival, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. This week, the Dow Jones industrial average, the S & P 500 index and the NASDAQ index rose 1.89%, 1.55% and 1.05% respectively. 1) From the overall performance of US stocks, the gradual recovery of the market reflects the gradual easing of investors’ concerns about the Fed’s interest rate hike. Looking back, although the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50bp further increased in March, and the major central banks around the world accelerated the pace of tightening. On February 3, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 25bp, the peak time of the negative impact of liquidity expectations on the China US equity market is gradually passing. 2) From the perspective of US stock structure, technology stocks have fluctuated greatly and differentiated significantly recently. On Thursday, meta’s performance fell by 26.39% less than expected, but Amazon and snap rose sharply under the catalysis of strong performance. It reflects that in the environment of continuous tightening of liquidity expectations, the fluctuation of science and technology growth style is amplified, and the market has more stringent requirements for its molecular end. Mapping a shares, the test of liquidity in 2022 will also be the only way for the market, which also points out the direction for the current structural configuration.
structural allocation: pay attention to the direction of profit reversal and marginal improvement, and focus on the undervalued value. return to the starting point. At present, there are two ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, with the expected warming of steady growth, the allocation value of consumption, infrastructure and other undervalued directions has increased. We believe that the liquidity test of A-Shares in 2022 is not over, which makes the valuation end not have the basis for comprehensive rise, so we should focus on the direction of valuation repair. The positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair and pay attention to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages. In the future, the market will still flow to a lower level, and the style will accelerate the switching to undervalued style. The opportunities of track companies still need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite.
industry configuration: grasp consumption and infrastructure. According to the order of growth and the marginal improvement of profitability, industry configuration recommends: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on with supporting performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment, help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
spring returns to the earth and the beginning of the year is getting warmer
general trend study and judgment: spring returns to the earth and the beginning of the year is getting warmer. the year of the tiger of A-Shares is about to start. We believe that the negative factors before the festival have been gradually weakened, and the market will gradually recover with the upward revision of positive factors and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year. 1) At the current time point, the negative factors before the festival have been significantly weakened. Before the holiday, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates continued to increase, and the global equity market continued to adjust. However, during the Spring Festival, with the digestion of the negative impact of liquidity expectations, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. The adjustment of US stocks on Thursday was mainly due to the drag on the performance of heavyweights rather than the change of liquidity expectations. At the same time, considering that A-Shares have gradually priced the changes of liquidity expectations before the festival, the negative impact margin of overseas liquidity expectations will continue to weaken in the future. In addition, in terms of risk appetite, the geopolitical conflict between overseas Russia and Ukraine is alleviated, the credit risk of China’s real estate will also be gradually implemented, and the negative factors at the denominator end are significantly weakened. 2) Positive factors will be gradually revised upward. In January, the local two sessions were held one after another, with strong demands for steady growth. Many governments raised the target growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2022, and infrastructure and manufacturing will become an important starting point. With the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be accelerated and put into force. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. On the whole, the market is expected to gradually warm up after the Spring Festival and actively increase positions at the beginning of the year.
U.S. stocks stabilized and rebounded, and the liquidity impact eased periodically
U.S. stocks stabilized and rebounded, and the impact of interest rate hikes was gradually relieved, but the fluctuation of scientific and technological growth was amplified on the way of liquidity tightening. During the Spring Festival, US stocks stabilized and rebounded. This week, the Dow Jones industrial average, the S & P 500 index and the NASDAQ index rose 1.89%, 1.55% and 1.05% respectively. 1) From the overall performance of US stocks, the gradual recovery of the market reflects the gradual easing of investors’ concerns about the Fed’s interest rate hike. Looking back, although the probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 50bp further increased in March, and the major central banks around the world accelerated the pace of tightening. On February 3, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 25bp, the peak time of the negative impact of liquidity expectations on the China US equity market is gradually passing. 2) From the perspective of US stock structure, technology stocks have fluctuated greatly and differentiated significantly recently. On Thursday, meta’s performance fell by 26.39% less than expected, but Amazon and snap rose sharply under the catalysis of strong performance. It reflects that in the environment of continuous tightening of liquidity expectations, the fluctuation of science and technology growth style is amplified, and the market has more stringent requirements for its molecular end. Mapping a shares, the test of liquidity in 2022 will also be the only way for the market, which also points out the direction for the current structural configuration.
pay attention to the direction of profit reversal and marginal improvement, and focus on the undervalued value
structural allocation: pay attention to the direction of profit reversal and marginal improvement, and focus on the undervalued value. return to the starting point. At present, there are two ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, with the expected warming of steady growth, the allocation value of consumption, infrastructure and other undervalued directions has increased. We believe that the liquidity test of A-Shares in 2022 is not over, which makes the valuation end not have the basis for comprehensive rise, so we should focus on the direction of valuation repair. The positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair and pay attention to the direction of profit reversal or marginal improvement. At present, the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core has the above advantages. In the future, the market will still flow to a lower level, and the style will accelerate the switching to undervalued style. The opportunities of track companies also need to wait for the recovery of risk appetite.
industry configuration: grasp consumption and infrastructure
industry configuration: grasp consumption and infrastructure. According to the order of growth and the marginal improvement of profitability, industry configuration recommends: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (pig), household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, Baijiu and so on, with supporting performance and negative expectation. 2) Infrastructure: improve infrastructure investment, help “revitalize infrastructure” exceed expectations in the future, and recommend building materials, construction, power operation and other directions; 3) Finance: securities companies ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ), banks ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ); 4) Consumer electronics ( Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) / Goertek Inc(002241) ).
quick view of major events at home and abroad during the Spring Festival
5.1 overseas markets: US stocks rose first and then fell, and Hong Kong stocks rose sharply on the first day of the year of the tiger
During the Spring Festival, the US stock market goes up and down first. from January 31 to February 2, apple and Microsoft had strong quarterly results, the US stock technology sector rose sharply, and most of the popular Chinese stocks also rose. However, on February 3, the share price of meta, the parent company of Facebook, fell sharply due to poor financial results, which further spread to the technology and social networking sector. The three major indexes of the United States fell sharply, of which the Nasdaq composite index fell the most significantly. Affected by the sharp decline of US stocks and the decision of the Bank of England to raise interest rates, the main indexes of European stocks also fell across the board later this week.
Hong Kong stocks rose sharply on the first trading day of the year of the tiger. on February 4, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply on the first trading day of the year of the tiger. The Hang Seng index opened higher and closed up 3.24%. Among them, heavyweights rose significantly as a whole. Alibaba rose 5.65%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) rose 3.24%, meituan rose 3.28%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) rose 4.6%, Byd Company Limited(002594) rose 7.05% and Baidu rose 5.98%. In terms of sectors, gains were led by automobiles, non essential consumer stocks and financial stocks. Ideal automobile rose 12.58%, Xiaopeng automobile rose 11.21%, and Byd Company Limited(002594) shares rose 7.05%.
5.2 China: the number of tourists continues to recover, and the box office performance of the Spring Festival is bright
● the number of tourists on vacation gradually recovered
As of February 4, 2022, the average daily transportation during the Spring Festival is 14.58 million, which is basically the same as that in 2021, and the average daily tourist reception in China has further rebounded. From February 1 to 3, the national tourist reception is 173 million, which is restored to 71.5% of the same period of the Spring Festival holiday in 2019 according to a comparable caliber. Under the long-term anti epidemic achievements and strict control, the transportation and tourism industry is gradually recovering during the Spring Festival holiday.
● box office performance of Spring Festival
On the first day of the lunar new year in 2022, the box office of films exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, ranking the second in the single day box office in Chinese film history, with a total of 535600 shows, setting a single day record in Chinese film history. However, the subsequent box office growth was slightly lower than that in 2021. As of the fourth day of the lunar new year, the cumulative box office decreased by more than 1 billion yuan compared with that in 2021. It is worth noting that the average ticket price for the Spring Festival in 2022 reached a new high of 54.4 yuan.
● manufacturing PMI fell in January
In January, manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.2 percentage points, domestic demand at the demand side decreased, and external demand rose offline. Compared with December, new orders decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, new export orders rebounded by 0.3 percentage points to 48.4%, and the supply-demand gap measured by new orders and inventory indicators rebounded slightly. In January, supply expansion slowed down, the pressure of insufficient demand was still on, prices rebounded significantly, and the overall economic activity decreased.
● Bureau of Statistics: be sure to take the lead in the new year
On February 1, the director of the National Bureau of statistics published a signed article entitled “increasing the volume and quality of the national economy and achieving a good start in the 14th five year plan”, emphasizing the need to make steady progress, overcome difficulties and make steady progress. The article points out that we should actively introduce policies conducive to economic stability. In view of the downward pressure on the economy, we should take practical actions to implement the party’s line, principles and policies, implement sound and effective macro policies, carefully introduce policies with contraction effect, and keep the policy force ahead appropriately. We will strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and monetary policies, organically combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation, and do a good job in normalized epidemic prevention and control.
● support diversified real estate M & A financing
Since the issuance of the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects, several banks such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Guangdong Development Bank have stated that they will provide financing support for real estate M & A, including M & a theme bonds, M & A loans, merger funds and asset securitization. It is expected to provide a total of more than 30 billion yuan of M & A financing support.
On January 21, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) bookkeeping issued real estate project M & a theme bonds (22 Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) 02), with a bond scale of 5 billion yuan and a term of 3 years. On January 25, China Resources Land and Vientiane life signed the strategic cooperation agreement on M & A financing with China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in Shenzhen. With the continuous support of diversified M & A financing of banks, M & A projects will continue to increase. This is not only conducive to the revitalization of the assets of the real estate enterprises in danger and the introduction of high-quality partners, but also conducive to the follow-up financing and sales of the project and reduce the risk of the real estate market. With the development of financing, the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises will be gradually met.
\u3000\u3000 5.3。 Overseas: the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate, and the CPI of the eurozone hit a new high in January
● the Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate
The Bank of England raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50%, in line with market expectations, with a voting ratio of 5-4; In the interest rate resolution in January, the voting ratio of interest rate increase – unchanged – interest rate reduction was 9-0-0, and that in December 2001 was 8-1-0. The European Central Bank kept the three major interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England became the first major central bank to start fighting inflation as inflation soared and continued beyond expectations. In order to control inflation within expectations, this is the second interest rate hike in the UK. As the market has been fully expected before, the overall impact on the UK stock index is limited.
● international coal prices further rise
Global coal prices rose sharply, approaching the record high set in October 2021. On January 27, the benchmark Newcastle coal index rose to US $262 per ton.
The tense situation in Russia and Ukraine and the limited increase in OPEC + production have exacerbated global anxiety about energy issues.
● euro zone CPI hit a new high in January
In January, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 5.1% year-on-year, reaching a new record, with an expected increase of 4.4% and a previous increase of 5%. In January, the CPI of the euro zone increased by 0.3% month on month, with an expected decrease of 0.4% and a previous increase of 0.4%. Among them, the inflation rate excluding food and energy fell to 2.5%, while the narrow index excluding tobacco and alcohol products fell to 2.3%, which was still higher than expected, which exacerbated the market’s doubts about the temporary theory of inflation of the European Central Bank, and further deepened the concern that inflation may face upward risks.
● meta’s share price fell sharply
Meta’s share price fell 26.39% on Thursday as Facebook’s parent company’s quarterly profit was lower than expected. Companies in the social networking sector, including twitter, were also implicated, and the US technology sector was impacted. Mate’s profit is lower than expected, which is mainly affected by many factors, including Apple’s privacy policy, changes in the advertising environment and so on. Among them, the “meta universe” business has a huge loss, which reflects that its definition and development prospect as a new concept are still unclear.
five dimensional data panorama
