The capital market is about to open after the Spring Festival, and abundant liquidity is expected to create a good capital environment for the capital market.
Although the reverse repo funds of the people's Bank of China will be returned naturally after the Spring Festival, the large amount of cash returned after the festival will also significantly increase the total liquidity of the banking system. Superimposed on the large amount of treasury bonds due in the first week after the festival, it will also increase a certain amount of liquidity. Some analysts pointed out that, on the whole, if it is more common after the Spring Festival over the years, the market capital after the festival will be more relaxed and the liquidity supply will be relatively more than that before the festival.
The overall sharp rise of Hong Kong stocks after the opening of the year of the tiger has injected a booster into the A shares to be opened soon. On February 4, Hong Kong stocks took the lead in ushering in the first trading day of the year of the tiger. On that day, the Hang Seng Index rose strongly by 3.24%, led by the auto, consumer and financial sectors. The domineering performance of Hong Kong stocks on the first trading day of the year of the tiger also makes the market look forward to the A shares opening next Monday.
sufficient liquidity supply
take care of the stable "new year" of capital
Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has been pushed forward to protect the stability of market funds, and the intention of "cross year" is obvious.
On January 17, the central bank launched a 700 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and a 100 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation to hedge the impact of short-term factors such as the peak tax period in January and cash delivery before the Spring Festival in advance. More importantly, the two major policy interest rates were lowered by 10 basis points, releasing a loose signal that monetary policy is moving forward.
In addition, in order to maintain the stability of liquidity before the Spring Festival, the central bank also increased the investment of cross Festival liquidity, carried out 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase every day from January 17, and carried out 14 day reverse repurchase from January 24, so as to fully meet the liquidity needs of the market.
The timely replenishment of liquidity supply during the Spring Festival and the reduction of policy interest rate jointly promote the stable operation of market interest rate anchoring to a new level, reflecting the rapid response of monetary policy transmission mechanism from policy interest rate to market interest rate. According to the data, dr007 operates around the reduced open market operation with a 7-day reverse repo rate of 2.10%. Since January 17, the average dr007 rate has been 2.12%, and the interest rate center of the money market has moved down accordingly compared with the previous period.
timely and appropriate release of liquidity
sufficient liquidity after the holiday
Market analysis generally believes that the central bank's care for liquidity before the festival will continue until after the festival, so as to reflect the foresight, stability, pertinence, effectiveness and autonomy of monetary policy.
Liu Guoqiang, vice governor of the central bank, pointed out at the press conference of the state information office a few days ago that the current key goal is stability and the policy requirement is force. We should expand the monetary policy toolbox to keep the total amount stable and avoid credit collapse.
From the perspective of liquidity after the Spring Festival, cash withdrawal after the Spring Festival will greatly increase the liquidity of the banking system. Although the reverse repo funds will be recovered naturally after the Spring Festival, due to a large amount of cash withdrawal, the total liquidity of the banking system will increase significantly, and the maturity of treasury bonds in the first week after the Spring Festival is relatively large, which will also increase some liquidity.
Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst, told the securities times that the central bank's open market operation is accurate and forward-looking. Factors such as cash delivery during the Spring Festival and cash withdrawal after the festival will cause short-term disturbance to the liquidity of the banking system. In order to smooth out the above fluctuations, the central bank used the open market reverse repo tool to flexibly arrange the operation quantity and duration and accurately maintain the balance between capital supply and demand: before the Spring Festival, the central bank increased the operation scale of reverse repo and enabled the 14 day reverse repo tool, which made the liquidity of the Spring Festival less tight; After the Spring Festival, this part of reverse repurchase gradually expires, which makes the liquidity not loose after the festival.
\u3000\u3000 "After the long Spring Festival holiday last year, we also faced the centralized maturity of open market reverse repo, but the interest rate in the capital market did not fluctuate significantly. The same is expected after the Spring Festival this year. The market interest rate represented by dr007 still operates stably around the Omo interest rate, which will not only stabilize the expectations of investors in the financial market, but also help alleviate the liquidity faced by banks in the process of asset expansion Dynamic constraints are more conducive to consolidating the foundation for deepening the market-oriented reform of interest rates. " Zhang Xu said.
Mingming, CO chief economist and deputy director of the Research Institute, said recently that the central bank put a large amount of cross Festival funds into the market before the festival, started the cross spring festival liquidity arrangement, and had a clear attitude to protect the stability of funds. The liquidity gap after the festival will be greatly improved, and the monetary policy is still in a loose cycle, so it may pay taxes in February The capital level has been tightened at some time points such as government bond payment, but it will not change the overall downward trend of interest rate.
Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, recently wrote that looking forward to 2022, the prudent monetary policy will be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, be more proactive and enterprising, and focus on moving forward. At present, the economy is facing downward pressure, "stability" itself is the biggest "progress". We should focus on increasing support for the real economy to promote stability, which is reflected in three "forces": we should make sufficient efforts, cooperate with volume and price, and maintain the stability of the total amount; We should make precise efforts, take the initiative and optimize the economic structure; Rely on the front force, forward-looking operation, and walk in front of the market curve.
"Monetary policy will make comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools, timely and appropriately inject liquidity, iron out short-term fluctuations in liquidity, make cross cyclical adjustment of liquidity, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and promote the stable operation of interest rates in the money market." Sun Guofeng said.
