During the long Spring Festival holiday, most overseas stock and commodity markets rose, bond yields rose rapidly and the US dollar weakened. In terms of U.S. stocks, the Dow, S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose 1.05%, 1.55% and 2.38% respectively; In terms of European stocks, Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 index fell 1.34% and 0.21% respectively, while the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.67%. In the Asia Pacific stock market, Hong Kong stocks had a good start. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.24%, and the Nikkei 225 and South Korea composite index rose 2.70% and 3.26% respectively. Affected by geopolitical risks and tight supply, both Buyou and Meiyou stood at $90 / barrel, a new high since 2014.
overseas, the monetary policies of major developed economies are converging, and the non-agricultural sector in the United States is higher than expected. the inflection point of Omicron epidemic in January has emerged. Under the influence of the epidemic, the overseas economic recovery continues to show signs of slowing down, and the PMI in the United States and Europe continues to decline month on month, but the non-agricultural employment in the United States recorded 467000 in January. The higher than expected us non-agricultural data and the "Hawking" of the UK and the European Central Bank have pushed up the market's expectations of subsequent interest rate hikes by the central banks of developed countries. The US bond yield rose above 1.93%, while the US dollar was relatively weak.
China, new energy vehicles are selling brighten and consumption is slowing down under the line. in January, the manufacturing PMI fell seasonally, and the number of offline trips increased during the holidays. As of February 5, the cumulative number of Spring Festival passengers was 480 million, an increase of more than 40% year-on-year; Offline consumption showed a weak recovery, with 137 million Chinese tourists in the three days before the Spring Festival, which was 71.5% of the same period in 2019. The box office and number of film viewers in the Spring Festival were lower than last year; The sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles increased sharply in January, and the high prosperity of the track is expected to continue to be tested.
look for opportunities in a "quasi overheating" environment. with the convergence of monetary policies of European and American central banks, the equity market (especially the leader of US stock technology) is gradually returning to the fundamental trading in the earnings season. Coupled with the rise of commodity prices led by oil prices and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) due to the supply shock, the pricing logic of global asset prices began to price the "overheating" of the economy. With the promotion of China's policy from wide currency to wide credit, the expected macro environment in the future will be the gradual stabilization and recovery of social finance and the bottom of interest rate shock. From the perspective of financial cycle, we define it as a "quasi overheating" environment. Historically, under the "quasi overheating" environment, the A-share market often presents a wide range of shocks, which is also caused by the mismatch between the numerator side benefiting from the improvement of the credit environment and the denominator side more sensitive to the monetary environment. In terms of structure, the market style of this period is often a gradual switch from high growth to more stable consumption growth; Medium cap stocks with moderate liquidity sensitivity and still flexible earnings are more likely to obtain excess returns.
the market can be more optimistic in the first half of the year. at the current time point, with the full trading expected by the market for the denominator in the early stage, we believe that the focus of the market in the first half of the year will return to the numerator. it is suggested that investors grasp four main lines from the structure: first, the new energy sector with high performance growth is expected to become the phased main line of the market; Secondly, with the gradual recovery of market transactions and the expected warming of comprehensive registration system, the sector investment opportunities of securities companies deserve attention; Third, the offline economy represented by catering tourism and commercial retail is expected to be repaired; Finally, the essential consumer goods that benefit from the price transmission from PPI to CPI are still the most deterministic main line of the year, and agriculture and other sectors still deserve continuous attention.
risk tips
Overseas epidemics exceeded expectations, Sino US trade frictions exceeded expectations, and the pace of policy promotion was lower than expected.
