report summary
● a stocks made a good start after the festival. It is suggested to lay out the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon" of peg science and technology + 123456}. in the strategic outlook for the year of 21.12.5, we pointed out two key "Expectation Differences" - (1) the tightening pace of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations; (2) The effect of "steady growth" is lower than the expectations of optimistic investors. However, after the festival, we judge that the changes of the three factors will support the A shares to make a good start. (1) The short-term market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate increase has been relatively sufficient price in; (2) From the Spring Festival to the two sessions, the "steady growth" policy will be implemented intensively; (3) We judge that the "negative feedback" of absolute return product position reduction is basically over. In addition to the real estate / infrastructure chain, we also suggest paying attention to low peg technology stocks & undervalued stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon".
● low peg Technology: the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is fully price in, providing a rebound window of technology style. we suggested in 1.16 "steady growth callback, good opportunity to increase Holdings": the idea of 22-year low peg is more dominant. This week, the global undervalued value style and high growth G technology stocks generally rebounded. We judge that the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to fully price in, providing a window for the rebound of technology style, especially the technology stocks with high growth G. A shares continue to focus on emerging industries dominated by PEG, such as new energy vehicle (commercial + passenger), optical fiber and optical cable (0.69), pet base film (0.84), etc.
● intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon": the "low-carbon transformation" of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises plus leverage . on the right side of historical stable growth, "setting the tone and turning" is the opportunity to increase holdings in the "stable growth" chain. However, "no speculation in real estate and housing" and local implicit debt restrict the "steady growth" effect of the real estate / infrastructure chain. We judge that the "low-carbon transformation" of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises, coupled with leverage, can release a total credit demand of about 15 trillion. After the real estate / infrastructure chain, it is expected to become a "new grasp" of the "stable growth" policy. It is suggested to focus on five areas: Construction (prefabricated buildings), public utilities (green electricity), iron and steel (special steel), chemical industry (coal chemical industry and new energy materials) and nonferrous metals (recycled aluminum and nonferrous small metals).
● the performance forecast of the annual report is higher than expected, which will continue to help the market of low peg technology + some undervalued values. as of February 5, the release rate of annual report performance (notice) has reached 43%, which is representative: the growth rate of annual report (notice) performance is 86.7% (overall method), higher than our previous expectation. Structurally, the industries with accelerated annual performance are mainly concentrated in TMT (electronics, software, media), new energy chain (UHV, motor, etc.) and some traditional cycles (cement manufacturing, general machinery, etc.). We believe that the profits of TMT, new energy chain and some traditional cycle industries continue to accelerate, which can consolidate the profit improvement / tenacity (growth g) expectation of low peg technology and some undervalued value.
● a shares made a good start after the festival, and continue to use the idea of low peg to configure the balance between high area and low area. Changes in 3 major factors will support A-Shares to make a good start after the festival. In the medium term, A-Shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed's faster pace of interest rate hike + table contraction; The steady growth effect of China. The performance forecast of the annual report strengthens the growth expectation of low peg technology and some undervalued value. It is suggested to use the idea of low peg for the balanced configuration of high area and low area: 1. The intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon" in low-lying areas (securities companies, consumer building materials, coal chemical industry); 2。 Technology track stocks agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle, power battery and digital economy); 3。 Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing, agriculture).
● risk tips:
Repeated epidemic control, the global economic downturn exceeded expectations, and overseas uncertainty.
report body
1. Express delivery of core ideas
(I) A shares made a good start after the festival. It is suggested to actively distribute low peg technology stocks and value stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon". in 21.12.5 annual strategic outlook, we pointed out two key "Expectation Differences" - (1) stagflation not seen in the United States in the past 30 years will force the fed to tighten faster than expected; (2) The "steady growth" policy will be fulfilled, but the effect at the end of the first quarter will be lower than that expected by optimistic investors. Based on concerns about the uncertainty of the effect of "steady growth", the excess return of the real estate / infrastructure chain converged last week (Figure 1 below). however, after the holiday, we judge that the changes of three major factors will support the A-share to get off to a good start - (1) the short-term market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike in 2022 has been raised to five times, and the expectation of interest rate hike has been relatively sufficient price in, while the guidelines for the first interest rate hike and table contraction need to wait until the Fed's interest rate meeting in mid March; (2) From the Spring Festival to the two sessions in mid and early March, the probability of "steady growth" policy will be intensively implemented, which will alleviate the market's concern about the small thunder and heavy rain of "steady growth"; (3) In our report on January 16, we prospectively pointed out that there is a risk of "negative feedback" in a shares: there is no safety cushion for the income at the beginning of the year, which may trigger the passive position reduction of absolute income products. Compared with the "Mao index" microstructure deterioration adjustment in February 21, it triggered the "negative feedback" of a shares. On 21.3.24, the median net value of public funds retreated by 8.2%, and the "negative feedback" ended. As of the closing on January 28, the median net value of public funds in 22 years had retreated by 10.0%. We judged that the "negative feedback" of reducing positions of absolute income products was basically over. it is suggested to actively layout the market after the A-share Festival: in addition to the real estate / infrastructure chain that we prompted in the early stage and obtained significant excess returns, we can also focus on low peg technology stocks and value stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon" (the traditional capacity of state-owned enterprises "low-carbon transformation" plus leverage).
(II) low peg Technology: the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is fully price in, providing a rebound window of technology style. in the stock markets of major global economies this week (1.31-2.4), value (energy / Finance / optional consumption) and Technology (communication equipment / information technology / Information Technology) generally rebounded. in 1.16 "steady growth correction, good opportunity to increase Holdings", we suggested that 22 years is a downward period of profitability and a year of central rise of US bond interest rate. There are constraints on both ends of growth g and valuation PE, so peg thinking will be more dominant this year.
on the one hand, the global undervalued value style has resonated since the beginning of the year. On the other hand, we judge: as the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be phased in at a relatively sufficient price in, the global technology style will also resonate: even though the US non farm payrolls data in January exceeded expectations and increased the probability (including the range) of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, the 2.4 NASDAQ still rose, and the global technology style will continue to resonate and rebound. from the structural point of view, U.S. technology stocks are also highly sensitive to G: meta (Facebook) performance plummeted with low expectations, while Amazon and snap performance rose sharply beyond expectations, it can be seen that this week is not the resonance of global technology stocks as a whole, but the resonance of science and technology stocks with high growth g expectations.
we are in 1.5 "how to interpret emerging industries in each stage of penetration?" It is proposed that the subdivided fields can be compared with PEG. in the 0% - 20% penetration stage of emerging industries in history, it is not uncommon for the stock price of track leaders to fall in a non significant negative way. It takes 1-2 months and the range is 20-30pct. We judge that the adjustment range of track leaders in this round has been basically met. Similarly, PEG measured by PE in 21 years and compound profit growth in 22-23 years shows that the first-class industries are dominated by 5g (1.2), new energy vehicles (1.23), photovoltaic (1.28) and innovative drugs (1.4); The second level is dominated by new energy vehicles (commercial + passenger), optical fiber cables (0.69), pet base film (0.84), Internet of things (0.91), etc.
(III) the value line of the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon": the "low-carbon transformation" of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises plus leverage will release a total credit demand of about 15 trillion, which is expected to become a "new grasp" of the "steady growth" policy. we pointed out in 1.16 "correction of stable growth, good opportunity to increase Holdings": on the right side of historical stable growth, "setting the tone and turning" is the opportunity to increase holdings in the "stable growth" chain. however, under the constraints of "no speculation in housing and housing" and local implicit debt, the effect of "steady growth" of the real estate / infrastructure chain is relatively limited. At the same time, the investment scale in the field of new energy (carbon neutralization and "first establishment") in the 14th five year plan is only 2-3 trillion per year, which is difficult to become the best choice to increase the holding of "steady growth" chain. then, who can assume the role of "steady growth" broad credit and the ultimate "borrower" in addition to real estate / Infrastructure / new energy? We suggest: we might as well consider the "low-carbon transformation" (carbon neutralization and "post breaking") of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises plus leverage - (1) under the "supply side reform" in 2016-17 and the "normalization of supply contraction" policy in 18 years, the profitability of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises has improved, the leverage ratio has fallen, and the capacity expansion has been limited, resulting in the continuous accumulation of free cash flow, Have the ability / willingness to carry out "low-carbon transformation" and layout the global competitive advantage of the future "low-carbon era"; (2) It is estimated that at the level of industrial enterprises, if the leverage ratio of state-owned enterprises is added back to the relative high of 16 years, a total of about 15 trillion credit demand will be released. At the level of listed companies: if the leverage ratio of the five major industries of architectural decoration / public utilities / steel / chemical industry / nonferrous metals is added back to the relative high point in the past 10 years, it can roughly release the credit demand of 6.74 trillion. 1235} the "low-carbon" transformation of state-owned enterprises is not only the main clue of "low-carbon" transformation of state-owned enterprises, but also the "low-carbon" transformation of state-owned enterprises (the "low-carbon" transformation of state-owned enterprises), 456} the main clue of "low-carbon" transformation of state-owned enterprises (the "green" transformation of state-owned enterprises), 456} Chemical industry (coal chemical industry and new energy materials) and nonferrous metals (recycled aluminum and nonferrous small metals).
(IV) the performance forecast of the annual report is higher than expected, which will help the market of low peg technology stocks + some value stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon". as of February 5, the release rate of annual report performance (advance notice) of A-share listed companies excluding finance has reached 43%, which is representative: the annual report (advance notice) performance growth rate is 86.7% (overall method, the same below), which continues to accelerate compared with the growth rate of 67.9% in the third quarterly report under the same caliber, It is also significantly higher than our previous expectations (in-depth analysis of the third quarterly report, the double squeeze of low demand and high cost, 21.11.5). industries with accelerated annual report performance (forecast) are mainly concentrated in low peg technology stocks + some value stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon" - among the major industries, TMT, industry and some service industries have the highest acceleration rate of annual report (performance); At the level of secondary industries, the annual report (forecast) performance growth accelerated, and the top 10 industries are also mainly concentrated in TMT (optical optoelectronics, software, marketing communication, Internet media), new energy chain (UHV, motors, chemicals) and some traditional cycles (mining services, cement manufacturing, general machinery) and other fields. We believe that: the continuous acceleration of profits of TMT, new energy chain and some traditional cycle industries can not only consolidate the profit improvement / tenacity expectation of low peg technology and some undervalued value, but also alleviate investors' concerns about the "Thunderstorm" of the annual report performance of TMT sector.
(V) A shares made a good start after the festival, and continue to use the idea of low peg to configure low area high area equilibrium. The changes of 3 major factors will support the A-shares to make a good start after the festival: the US bond interest rate peaked periodically after the Fed fully raised interest rates, the intensive implementation of China's "steady growth" policy after the festival, and the "negative feedback" of reducing the position of absolute income products basically ended. In the medium term after the rebound, A-Shares still face the test of two core contradictions: the Fed's faster pace of interest rate hike + table contraction; The steady growth effect of China. The downward earnings of 22 years combined with the rise of the US bond interest rate center have constraints on both ends of growth g and valuation PE. This week, the global technology style and the value style of undervalued value generally rebounded - (1) low peg technology stocks: the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates sufficiently price in, technology stocks are highly sensitive to the growth of G, and low peg technology stocks with high growth g expectations in A-Shares are expected to rebound in resonance; (2) Value stocks at the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon": the "low-carbon transformation" (carbon neutralization and "post breaking") of traditional production capacity of state-owned enterprises, coupled with leverage, is expected to release a total credit demand of about 15 trillion, which will be the "new grasp" of "steady growth" and wide credit. The growth rate of annual report performance (forecast) is higher than expected, and the industries with accelerated performance are mainly concentrated in low peg technology stocks + some value stocks with the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon". In 22, under the background of declining profits and rising US debt Center, peg will dominate and continue the balanced allocation of high area and low area: 1. The intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon" in low-lying areas (securities companies, consumer building materials, coal chemical industry); 2。 Technology track stocks agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle, power battery and digital economy); 3。 Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence (food processing, agriculture).
2. Important changes this week
Zhongguan industry 123561}
1 downstream demand
Real estate: according to the transaction data of wind30 large and medium-sized cities, as of January 31, 2021, the cumulative real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 30.24% year-on-year, down from - 24.93% in the previous week. The real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 23.66% month on month, 30.24% month on month and 17.47% week on week.
Automobile: the retail sales of the overall narrow passenger car market in the third week of January reached 86000 vehicles per day, with a year-on-year increase of 28%, an increase of 13% compared with the third week of December 2021.
Aviation: in December 2021, the turnover of civil aviation passengers was 40.791 billion person kilometers, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.02%.
\u3000\u3000 2。 Midstream manufacturing
Steel: steel prices rose and fell last week. The rebar price index rose 0.1% to 4822.65 yuan / ton last week, and the cold rolling price index fell 0.07% to 5399.03 yuan / ton. As of January 28, the closing price of rebar futures was 4829 yuan / ton, up 2.50% from the previous week. According to the data of iron and steel network, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 1.9873 million tons in mid January 2022, up 1.05% month on month compared with the first ten days of January.
\u3000\u3000 3。 Upstream resources
Coal and iron ore: last week, iron ore inventories fell, coal prices rose and coal inventories fell. The tax inclusive price of Taiyuan ancient delivery board was stable at 2720.00 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 5500 mixed excellent in Shanxi of Qinhuangdao rose 65.63% to 927.00 yuan / ton last week; In terms of inventory, Qinhuangdao coal inventory decreased by 0.97% to 4.07 million tons last week, and port iron ore inventory decreased by 0.82% to 153.0993 million tons.
International Commodities: WTI rose 2.30% to USD 85.90/barrel last week, Brent rose 1.11% to USD 88.88/barrel, and commodity CRB index rose 1.76% to 252.85 last week; The BDI index fell 2.40% to 1381.00 last week.
2.2 stock market characteristics
Rise and fall of the stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57% last week. The top three gainers in the industry were mining (0.00%), electrical equipment (- 1.92%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 2.12%); The latter three were medicine and Biology (- 6.83%), media (- 9.66%) and computer (- 9.69%).
Dynamic Valuation: the overall PE (TTM) of A-Shares decreased from 18.82 times the previous week to 17.94 times last week, and Pb (LF) decreased from 1.91 times the previous week to 1.82 times last week; Excluding the financial service industry as a whole, PE (TTM) of A-Shares decreased from 29.66 times the previous week to 28.22 times last week, and Pb (LF) decreased from 2.69 times the previous week to 2.56 times last week; The growth enterprise market PE (TTM) decreased from 91.68 times in the previous week to 86.96 times in the previous week, and Pb (LF) decreased from 5.26 times in the previous week to 4.99 times in the previous week; PE (TTM) of Kechuang board decreased from 59.45 times of the previous week to 56.36 times of the previous week, and Pb (LF) decreased from 5.73 times of the previous week to 4.99 times of the previous week; The total market value of A-Shares decreased by 4.69% compared with the previous week; Excluding the financial services industry, the total market value of A-Shares fell by 4.97% compared with the previous week; The relative Pb of required consumption relative to cyclical listed companies decreased from 2.20 the previous week to 2.14 last week; The relative PE (TTM) of gem relative to CSI 300 decreased from 7.24 the previous week to 7.18 last week; The relative Pb (LF) of gem relative to CSI 300 decreased from 3.48 the previous week to 3.45 last week; The equity risk premium rose from 0.66% in the previous week to 0.84% last week, and the stock market yield rose from 3.37% in the previous week to 3.54% last week.
Balance of financed funds and bonds: as of Thursday, January 27, the balance of financed funds and bonds was 1743.654 billion yuan, compared with 1795.756 billion yuan the previous week.
Non reduction of large and small holdings: the overall non net reduction of A-Shares last week was 2.549 billion. The industries with the largest reduction last week were medicine and Biology (- 915 million), mechanical equipment (- 653 million) and electronics (- 427 million). The industries with the largest increase last week were communication (523 million), building materials (02 million) and comprehensive (01 million).
Fund size: 36.664 billion new equity + hybrid fund shares were issued last week, compared with 33.138 billion in the previous week; Last week, the cumulative share of the fund market decreased by 183.103 billion.
Lifting the ban on restricted shares: the ban on restricted shares was lifted by 163.047 billion yuan last week and 157.081 billion yuan next week.
Capital going north: last week, the net outflow of capital going north of land stock connect was 26.071 billion yuan, and the net inflow of the previous week was 29.197 billion yuan.
Ah premium index: the A / H share premium index fell to 139.16 last week, compared with 137.99 the previous week.
2.3 liquidity
As of January 28, the central bank had five reverse repos due last week, with a total amount of 500 billion yuan; Five reverse repos with a total amount of 900 billion yuan; The net investment in open market operations (including treasury cash) totaled 400 billion yuan.
As of January 28, 2022, R007 rose 18.66bp to 2.54% last week, and shib0r overnight interest rate fell 86.30bp to 1.20%; The term spread rose 4.32bp to 0.75% last week; Credit spreads rose 4.07bp to 0.75%.
2.4 overseas
Us: US January manufacturing pmi57 was released on Tuesday 6, lower than the previous value of 58.8; On Thursday, it was announced that the quarter on quarter ratio of ADP employment in the United States in January was - 0.24%, lower than the previous value of 0.62%; On Friday, it was announced that the quarterly adjustment value of the US unemployment rate in January was 4.00%, higher than the expected value of 3.90%, higher than the previous value of 3.90%;
Euro zone: it was announced on Tuesday that the manufacturing PMI of the euro zone in January was 58.7, higher than the expected value of 58.0 and higher than the previous value of 58.0; On Tuesday, it was announced that the unemployment rate in the eurozone in December was 6.40%, lower than the previous value of 6.50%; On Thursday, it was announced that the PPI of the EU in December was 26.20% year-on-year, 23.70% higher than the previous value;
UK: it was announced on Tuesday that the manufacturing PMI of the UK in January was 57.3, lower than the previous value of 57.9;
Overseas stock markets this week: the S & P 500 rose 0.77% this week to close at 4431.85; London FTSE fell 0.37% to close at 7466.07; Germany DAX fell 1.83% to close at 15318.95; Nikkei 225 fell 2.92% to 26717.34; Hang Seng fell 5.67% to close at 23550.08.
2.5 macro
In December 2021, China's national budget revenue decreased by 15.81% year-on-year, and fiscal budget expenditure decreased by 14.16% year-on-year; In January 2022, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, higher than the critical value, and the pace of manufacturing expansion slowed down; In 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 8709.210 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.30%. In December 2021, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total profit of 734.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.20%.
3, list of data released next week
Next week's highlights: the CPI of the United States in January is year-on-year; The core CPI of the United States in January was year-on-year; The UK's GDP (initial value) in the fourth quarter of 2021 was seasonally adjusted year-on-year.
Monday, February 7: China's foreign exchange reserves in January;
Tuesday, February 8: US commodity imports in December 2021;
Thursday, February 10: US January CPI quarter on quarter; CPI of the United States in January was year-on-year; The core CPI of the United States in January was year-on-year;
Friday, February 11: the UK's GDP (initial value) in the fourth quarter of 2021 was adjusted year-on-year.
4, risk prompt
Repeated epidemic control, the global economic downturn exceeded expectations, and overseas uncertainty.
