I. overseas markets: the Bank of England and Europe turned eagle, and the expectation of overseas monetary policy contraction was strengthened. On February 3, the Bank of England announced to raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%; On the same day, European Central Bank President Lagarde released a hawkish signal. The yield of 10-year German bonds rose to a nearly three-year high, and the high level of the US dollar index fell. The tone of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January was hawkish. At the same time, the US non farm employment exceeded expectations, which heated up the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 1.94%.
second, the expansion of manufacturing industry has slowed down, and the demand is still insufficient. The "steady growth" will continue to work. the manufacturing PMI data in January pointed to the slowdown in production, insufficient demand, large production and operation pressure of small enterprises, and the development trend continued to be weak. Recently, the National Bureau of statistics and the national development and Reform Commission have successively called for "steady growth", and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened. From the perspective of central policies and local two sessions, infrastructure and real estate are important starting points for "stable growth", and the support of industrial policies such as new energy (vehicles) and digital economy is still strong.
Third, A-Shares are gradually digesting negative factors and are expected to rebound after the festival. 1) overseas, the tone of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in January is "Hawk", but the current market expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase is relatively sufficient, and the overseas policy shift will not restrict China's monetary policy orientation; 2) In terms of micro liquidity of the stock market, public funds have started self purchase since January. At the same time, the purchase restrictions of popular fund products have been gradually liberalized, and the incremental funds after the festival are expected to flow into a shares; 3) During the Spring Festival, the overseas stock markets are in danger, China's steady growth policy will continue to work, and the risk appetite of the A-share market will also be repaired; 4) At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable. The valuation of most Shenwan class industries is below the median since 2010, with a certain margin of safety.
April and February A-share investment suggestions: A-share deduces "developing first and restraining later", and rationally treat this round of spring Market . since the beginning of the year, the risk appetite of the A-share market has continued to weaken under the expectation of tightening overseas monetary policy and the disturbance of risk aversion factors before the capital holiday. During the Spring Festival, overseas stock markets were in danger, and most of the world's major stock indexes rose. At the same time, China's policy level repeatedly called for "steady growth", and the market sentiment after the festival is expected to be repaired. In addition, the recent public offering to open self purchase and the liberalization of purchase restrictions of popular funds will help the inflow of incremental funds into A-Shares after the festival. A shares are expected to meet the "oversold rebound" in February. In view of the current hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and the strong expectation of contraction of overseas monetary policy, the global risk assets will still be disturbed before the landing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March. It is expected that A-Shares are still dominated by structural market. It is suggested to treat this round of spring market rationally. In terms of configuration, pay attention to three main lines:
1) real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy;
2) related to strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as: new energy (vehicles), digital economy and seed industry ;
3) the pig breeding sector reversed at the bottom of the pig cycle, etc.
■ risk warning: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The profit of the enterprise is less than expected; Overseas Black Swan incident (political risk, sovereign rating downgrade), etc.
