During the closing of the A-share market during the Spring Festival, the vast majority of global stock markets, including US stocks and Asian stock markets, strengthened. Among them, the US NASDAQ index and Hong Kong Hang Seng technology index rose sharply, providing a good market environment for the performance of A-shares after the festival.
the global stock market strengthened during the Spring Festival closing of A-Shares
the NASDAQ and Hang Seng technology index of Hong Kong stocks soared by more than 5%
During the long holiday of the year of the tiger, the global stock markets generally rose.
According to the reporter’s statistics, after considering the time difference and the actual trading time, the three major stock indexes of the U.S. stock market all rose during the A-share closing period, of which the NASDAQ index rose sharply by 5.58% and stood at the integer level of 14000 points again.
The S & P 500 index and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 4.02% and 2.72% respectively during the period.
The NASDAQ index of US stocks rose for three consecutive trading days since January 28, of which both rose more than 3% for two consecutive trading days on January 28 and January 29, and the index corrected on the subsequent trading days.
In terms of U.S. stocks, during the long Spring Festival holiday of a shares, most of the major large market capitalization companies in the U.S. stock market rose. Among the top 20 companies by market value, the share prices of 19 companies rose, and only the share prices of meta platforms fell. Among the 20 companies with the highest market capitalization, the shares of Amazon, Tesla, google-a, NVIDIA and visa all increased by more than 10%.
Asian stock markets also performed strongly during the A-share holiday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index and South Korea’s composite index rose by 2.70% and 3.26% respectively.
The performance of Hong Kong stock market in China was also very strong. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks rose by 4.34% during the period, and the Hang Seng technology index, which is concentrated in technology stocks and Internet stocks, rose by 5.48% during the period.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, most of them rose during the A-share market closure.
Statistics show that more than 470 of the more than 500 common targets of Hong Kong stocks rose during the Spring Festival holiday.
In addition, during the A shares during the Spring Festival break, from the Hengsheng technology index constituent stocks, only 1 stocks fell in the 30 constituent stocks of the index, and the remaining 29 shares rose, of which 18 shares rose more than 5%, and the stock of large Internet Co or large e-commerce platforms such as BEIR -SW, Alibaba -SW, -W, Kwai -W and other large companies rose.
how do A-Shares go after the Spring Festival?
look at the big data in the past decade
During the long Spring Festival holiday, the overall rise of the global stock market is believed to provide a relatively good external environment for a shares. How will A-Shares go after the Spring Festival in the year of the tiger?
The data show that the performance of A-Shares on the first day and the first week after the Spring Festival in the past decade has a great randomness, and there is no very obvious law.
From the historical data alone, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index fell six times on the first day after the Spring Festival in the past decade, and the performance was not satisfactory. However, from the performance of extending the time to the first week after the Spring Festival, seven of the above-mentioned ten years rose in the first week after the Spring Festival, and the year of rise reached 70%.
the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission blow the warm wind
On the news side, the capital market will usher in a capital environment with reasonable and abundant liquidity.
Since the beginning of this year, the prudent monetary policy has been pushed forward to protect the stability of market funds, and the intention of “cross year” is obvious. In order to maintain the stability of liquidity before the Spring Festival, the central bank also increased the investment of cross Festival liquidity, carried out 100 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase every day from January 17, and carried out 14 day reverse repurchase from January 24, so as to fully meet the liquidity needs of the market.
The timely replenishment of liquidity supply during the Spring Festival and the reduction of policy interest rate jointly promote the stable operation of market interest rate anchoring to a new level, reflecting the rapid response of monetary policy transmission mechanism from policy interest rate to market interest rate. According to the data, dr007 operates around the reduced open market operation with a 7-day reverse repo rate of 2.10%. Since January 17, the average dr007 rate has been 2.12%, and the interest rate center of the money market has moved down accordingly compared with the previous period.
In addition, according to Xinhua news agency and the relevant person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission, in 2021, in the face of a complex and severe development environment, China’s economic development and epidemic prevention and control remained a global leader, the main objectives and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year were well completed, and the 14th five year plan achieved a good start.
The official said that the current macro-control focus is on three aspects.
1. Focus on stability, and macro policies should be steady and effective.
Maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, improve the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness, grasp the rhythm, strength and focus of policies, and strive to stabilize the overall macroeconomic market.
Active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and accurately implement greater combined tax and fee reduction policies around key industries such as small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and manufacturing.
A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy.
2. Strengthen overall policy coordination and form a joint force for steady growth.
Strengthen the overall planning and coordination of policies among departments, and do a good job in the effective connection between economic policies and non economic policies. Before the introduction of various policies, we should make evaluation and analysis, actively promote the policies conducive to economic stability, and carefully introduce the policies with contraction effect.
3. Focusing on the stable start of the economy, the policy force should be appropriately advanced.
There are many uncertain factors in the first quarter of this year. It is necessary to appropriately move the starting point of the policy forward, make early arrangements, start early and achieve early results, and meet various challenges with a stable economic operation situation.
We will promptly introduce a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. Timely study and put forward targeted measures to revitalize industrial operation.
Carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter.
How do I go after the Festival? Institutions look at it this way
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) recent research points out that the production before the festival is weak and the main operating rate indicators are low. In terms of operating rate indicators, the operating rates of deformed steel bars, PTA, petroleum asphalt devices and all steel tires of automobiles in the four weeks before the Spring Festival this year (1.3-1.30) are significantly lower than those in the same period of 2018-2021, or related to the decline of real estate boom and the lack of obvious development of infrastructure.
In other aspects, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) also believes that the consumption structure is differentiated and the consumption of durable goods is warmer. Freight rates continued to rise and export resilience continued.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the downward pressure on the economy is still great, and the steady growth policy may be further strengthened. At present, the prosperity of real estate is still weak, the effect of infrastructure development remains to be observed, the consumption structure is differentiated, the export toughness continues, and the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and expectation weakening still exists. Based on the growth target of the local two sessions, it is expected that the national economic growth target this year may be set at about 5.5%.
If we want to achieve this growth goal throughout the year, we need the efforts of government led fields such as infrastructure investment and affordable housing. From the high-frequency data, the effect of steady growth in January is not obvious, or it is mainly due to weather and project shortage. It is expected that the steady growth effect may gradually appear as the temperature recovers after the festival and matching projects are in place. However, the downward pressure on the economy is still great, and the policy is expected to be further strengthened.
For overseas asset allocation, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that, on the whole, based on all aspects of information, a considerable part of expectations have been included in the current asset price, so the stage of maximum fluctuation may gradually pass, but some concerns will still lead to repetition, and it will take time to completely subside. Looking ahead, the positive side is that the valuation is relatively reasonable and has been included in the austerity expectation. The inflection point of the epidemic has appeared and dropped rapidly. Therefore, the disturbance to supply and demand and employment is expected to gradually subside. The disadvantage is that some chaotic expectations before the FOMC interest rate hike in March cannot be completely falsified, the data will improve, but the tightening expectation will be strengthened first, and the rapid rise of interest rate will also increase asset volatility. In addition, geopolitical risks and the disturbance of soaring oil prices are also potential risks.
Operationally, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that for the volatility caused by panic and rapid correction, it may not be of great significance to reduce the position again, especially considering that the expectation has been partially included and there is marginal room for improvement in the future. Therefore, it is suggested to make a static turnaround and maintain the suggestion of over allocation of equity assets, although there may still be twists and turns in the short term. Among different markets, thanks to the repair under the valuation advantages of some markets such as Hong Kong stocks, emerging markets have performed better under the turmoil and tightening pressure of US stocks, but there are great internal differentiation. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the comparative advantage of Hong Kong stocks is still expected to continue to be reflected, so the allocation proportion of US stocks is slightly reduced and Hong Kong stocks are added.
