general trend study and judgment: strengthen confidence and look at the post holiday market of A-Shares with optimism. looking forward to the Spring Festival, 1) positive factors will be gradually revised upward. At present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, with the word “stability” at the head. The steady growth policy will accelerate and exert its force, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year. 2) Negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market gradually priced the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations accelerated before the year, and the real estate credit risk will gradually fall after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. Investors’ short-term risk appetite has been at a low level, and there is limited downward space. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
core variable: the test of liquidity in 2022 is the only way. the biggest test of the market in 2022 is not the downward pressure on profits, but the change of liquidity expectations. In recent years, profitability has gradually become a structural problem. Even in the downward period of profitability, high prosperity and low growth coexist. The liquidity in 2022 is expected to change fundamentally compared with the past, and will move from positive driving to negative impact in the past two consecutive years. Therefore, the market valuation end will experience a severe test. Of course, the liquidity test experienced by the market before the festival is relieving the pressure after the festival. At the same time, as the core variable of market deduction, liquidity expectation also defines the direction for the current structural configuration.
structure selection: the water flows to the low, and the underestimated value dances. return to the starting point. At present, there are two ways in front of investors. On the one hand, after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of track companies has gradually increased. On the other hand, with the expected warming of steady growth, the value of consumption and infrastructure allocation has increased. We believe that the liquidity test is not over, superimposed on the low market risk appetite, the market still flows to the low, and the style is accelerated to switch to the undervalued style. Actively grasp the undervalued sector with consumption and infrastructure chain as the core.
industry configuration: grasp the main line of steady growth and nuggets new material opportunities. The focus of investment and consumption of securities companies will be changed from stable growth to low growth, and the focus of investment and consumption of securities companies will be revised in the order of stable growth and low growth. At present, new materials are the best foothold of the pan new energy growth market. Policy support + independent and controllable + technology upgrading further give birth to incremental demand. With the high prosperity of the downstream and the continuous increase of the profit forecast in 2022, the cost performance of the allocation in the field of new materials has improved.
monarch strategy February 2022 gold stock portfolio:
1. Finance: Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) / Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) ; 2. Agriculture: Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) ; 3. Electronic: Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ; 4. Building materials: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; 5. Building: Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) ; 6. Food and beverage: Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) ; 7. Military industry: Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) ; 8. New materials: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 9. Dianxin: Byd Company Limited(002594) .
