During the Spring Festival, overseas markets will open as usual. Over the past week, the overseas market has experienced ups and downs, and the hearts of A-share investors have also been "suspended".
Among them, meta platforms, the parent company of Facebook known as the leader of the yuan universe, received the most attention. On February 3, Eastern time, meta closed down 26.44% and its share price was reported at US $237.60, the largest decline in the stock's history; The market value evaporated nearly $250 billion on that day, and the market value scale of the loss was the largest in the history of the U.S. market.
At present, the balance of the long Spring Festival holiday is insufficient. Can A-Shares that will open soon after the holiday usher in a "good start"?
holiday peripheral market continued to fluctuate
In January 2022, the Dow Jones index fell by 3.32%; NASDAQ fell 8.89%; The S & P 500 fell 5.26%.
However, at the end of January, the three major indexes of US stocks seemed to have ushered in a turning point. On January 28 and 31, the three indexes rose continuously, up 2.84%, 6.64% and 4.37% respectively. On February 1 and 2, the three indexes continued their rise.
However, on Thursday, affected by the far less than expected performance of meta and the sharp drop of 26% in the share price in one day, large technology stocks fell across the board. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell throughout the week.
In Europe, the main indexes of major markets also rose first and then fell. As of the closing on February 4, during the A-share market closure, Germany's DAX index fell 1.34%, France's CAC40 index fell 0.21%, and Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.67%.
In contrast, on the first trading day of Hong Kong stocks after the Spring Festival, the performance of the Hang Seng index was quite "bright". It opened 590 points higher in the morning, with a half day increase of 2.71%, and the afternoon increase expanded to 3%, with a maximum of 24609.33. The whole day rose 771.03 points, or 3.24%, to 24573.29 points, with a turnover of HK $113.904 billion.
In terms of news, the non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 467000 after the quarter adjustment in January, the largest increase since October last year. It is expected to increase by 150000, and the previous value was revised up from 190000 to 510000; The unemployment rate in the United States in January was 4%, expected to be 3.9%, the previous value was 3.9%; The employment participation rate of the United States in January was 62.2%, with an expected 61.9%; The average hourly wage in the United States increased by 0.7% month on month in January, with an expected increase of 0.5% and a previous increase of 0.6%. The better than expected US employment report increased the market's bet on the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy.
After the Spring Festival, most of the investors in Hong Kong stock market still have questions about whether the "A-share" will rise after the "A-share" holiday and whether other investors will face the chaotic opening of the year.
after the festival, A-Shares are expected to turn around
In fact, statistics show that since 2017, during the Spring Festival in recent five years, the overseas market has risen and fallen. Except for the covid-19 epidemic in 2020, the performance of the A-share market on the first trading day in other years is generally better than that overseas.
Further, Xingshi investment said that since 2010, there has been a phenomenon of "spring agitation" in the stock market. Among them, the average annual performance of 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2016 is "decline first and then agitation". The adjustment of the stock market at the beginning of the year does not mean that there will be no "spring agitation" in that year. From the data, most spring agitation covers February, and the probability of rising in February since 2010 is 67%.
Therefore, despite the poor performance of the stock market at the beginning of this year, there are no major negative factors in the macro fundamentals, and the market is beginning to stabilize. The agitation in spring may be late but will not be absent.
Jiang Jingwen, head of Wukong investment research, said that since the end of 2021, China's monetary policy has shifted more actively, alleviating the market's concerns about the macro economy in 2022 since the fourth quarter of 2021, and foreign funds continue to buy Chinese assets. From the perspective of the main A-share indexes and individual industries in the early stage, the market still showed some resistance and toughness. Although A-Shares will continue to be disturbed by overseas markets in the later stage, A-Shares are expected to show obvious operational toughness.
When will the current round of adjustment of A shares end?
Gao Yuncheng, general manager of Jinglin assets, said that after the structural bull in 2021 and the rapid adjustment in January this year, the A-share market and zhonggai shares are expected to find a "double bottom" of economic and corporate fundamentals from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, Gao Yuncheng also predicted that the stock price operation may still have a relatively significant volatility in the next quarter or two, but the "bottom" of the market is also expected to become the starting point of the "new development paradigm".
In terms of investment opportunities, Gao Yuncheng said that Jinglin assets focuses on investment opportunities in three areas: the first is the online and intelligent of all equipment, the second is the real Internet, and the third is the change of energy structure.
Xingshi investment deputy general manager and chief research official Lei believes that there are three main reasons for the poor performance of A-Shares before the Spring Festival. First, some investors are worried about the strength and effect of the steady growth policy; Second, the global market is pricing the accelerated pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, and the market risk appetite has decreased; Third, the position adjustment of some institutions may further bring negative feedback to the market. However, after the Spring Festival, these factors will be alleviated. Xingshi investment is optimistic about the trend of A-Shares after the Spring Festival.
