During the Spring Festival holiday, the movie "the killer is not too calm" hit. In contrast, one market is too "calm".
In the off-season, the price increase and the peak season are the "routine" operations in the Baijiu industry, but it seems to be broken in the Spring Festival.
Before and after the Spring Festival, Baijiu is the traditional peak season for liquor sales. However, on the eve of this year's double festival, liquor enterprises also seem to smell the smell of market changes in advance - pile up price increases. When there is a sound of "rising", what corresponds to it is the coldness of the terminal market.
Some netizens joked: "Baijiu pre Festival price increases, like some spring festival movie, attendance rate is not good, rely on fare to get together."
why is it cold in peak season?
Although Baijiu Baijiu is not a big province of liquor consumption, Guangdong's largest share of liquor consumption has been increasing in recent years, and has become an important position for Baijiu liquor companies to compete for.
During the Spring Festival, reporters visited the Guangzhou market and found that the traditional sales channels of Baijiu were relatively deserted.
In a large chain supermarket in Tianhe District, Guangzhou, the reporter saw that only some products of Yanghe had large discounts. The prices of Yanghe Dream Blue 52 ° m3 (500ml) and tianzhilan 2021 52 ° m3 (500ml) are 698 yuan and 498 yuan respectively. You can enjoy the activity of "buying a bottle and reducing 100 yuan immediately". Dream Blue M6 + (550ml) has a special price of 839 yuan, and sea blue 52 ° (480ml) has a special price of 188 yuan. Other brands have no promotional activities.
"Our pre Festival promotion efforts are still quite large, and the scope is very wide. There are activities for high, middle and low-grade wines, but the sales situation is also very general." Mr. Huang, a regional salesperson of the supermarket Baijiu, said, "sales after the new year's twenty-nine is even worse. Only a small number of customers have finished drinking at home to replenish the goods."
Manager Lin of a chain liquor store in Yuexiu District told reporters, "although Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) this kind of high-end liquor still doesn't worry about selling, the overall sales of this year's Spring Festival fell a lot. It's not uncommon for some customers to spend tens of thousands of yuan on wine in the first two years. It may be worth considering buying two or three thousand yuan at one time this year."
The business of a medium-sized tobacco Hotel in Panyu district is also quite cold recently. The boss Lao Wang said, "in previous years, the business of the hotel next door was good. Many people came to me to buy wine and treat. This year, fewer people eat in the hotel, and fewer people come to buy wine."
According to industry sources, the sales of Baijiu main market including Henan, Shaanxi, Shandong, Hebei and so on this year are not very optimistic.
Among them, as the "national Baijiu market vane" Henan, Baijiu market this spring is also "cold chilly".
Huang Fu Shang Min, Secretary General of the circulation Committee of Henan wine industry association, recently revealed that the sales of alcohol in Henan Province during the Spring Festival in 2022 is expected to decline by more than 20% compared with last year's Spring Festival, "Henan Baijiu in December 2021 increased slightly by 10% over November, but far from the same level in the same period of last year. In January, it planned to go all the way, but it also pressed the pause button due to the epidemic, which seriously affected the dealer's market expectations."
Guan Chunxia, Secretary General of Zhengzhou wine industry association, said that the sales volume of Zhengzhou wine merchants is expected to decline by about 50% this Spring Festival, and Zhengzhou wine market may become the "coldest" Spring Festival peak season in recent years.
Xiao Zhuqing, a liquor expert, told reporters that the consumption of Baijiu Baijiu was greatly reduced by the epidemic situation this year. Meanwhile, all sectors of the industry were affected by the epidemic. The enthusiasm and purchasing power of Spring Festival consumption were weakened, which affected the spring consumption impulse of the Spring Festival.
The industry said that in addition to the epidemic situation, the peak season of Baijiu is also related to the trend of strong investment in high-grade baijiu. "Investment demand is different from traditional consumer demand. It does not have the fluctuation of consumption time nodes, and the concept of peak season will gradually weaken."
"attendance" is not good, "ticket price" to make up for it?
Compared with the "calm" of the market, the competition of major liquor enterprises to raise prices before New Year's Day is not very "calm".
On December 14 last year, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ liquor (time-honored brand) 2018 edition increased its overall price, with the planned price increase of 40 yuan / 500 ml and the unplanned price increase to 388 yuan / 500 ml; On December 16, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) informed that the price of 1573 classic bottles (38 degrees and 52 degrees) in the southwest and Central South regions would be adjusted. The planned price of each bottle would be increased by 40 yuan and 70 yuan, and the unplanned price would be increased to 750 yuan and 1080 yuan; On December 28, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) issued a price adjustment notice again, raising the group purchase price and retail price of 60 year old products of century Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) cellar age wine.
Subsequently, this wave of price rise became more and more intense. Liquor enterprises such as Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Xi liquor, shede liquor, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) successively issued price rise notices.
According to incomplete statistics, since the end of October 2021, more than 10 liquor enterprises have raised prices.
Make complaints about the price of Baijiu, different approaches but equally satisfactory results.
Xiao Zhuqing said that the price increase of Baijiu is not a special case this year. It is a regular action of famous distilleries to use the brand value and strong position to "grab money". "The working capital of famous liquor dealers is limited. If the brand announces a price increase at a time point, it is still the old price before this time point, and then the new price. Then the dealers will pay in order to obtain the price difference."
Xiao Zhuqing said Baijiu brand price rise is not simple, we should not only please the channel, but also please the consumers. "First, the price rise should be consistent with the psychological price of consumers, and it is easy to fail if it rises too much; second, the brand's ability to control inventory is very important. If the social inventory is large, the price rise is easy to fail, and it is easy to succeed if the inventory is in short supply; third, it needs a strong national sales service system, such as Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , it has a large number of salesmen across the country. It can say that it will rise and punish anyone who doesn't rise. In this way, it is easy to succeed. "
In addition, industry insiders believe that after the Spring Festival, due to the cold sales situation, there may be wine merchants who can't stand the pressure of inventory and cut prices and discounts.
A brokerage analyst told reporters that there may be two differentiated camps in the future price. "Famous wines such as maowuyang and Lufen will certainly not be sold at a discount after the festival, but some regional wineries that are not easy to sell lack a complete sales service system and strong execution, so a situation of discount and promotion may indeed be formed after the festival."
For Baijiu sector after the trend of the brokerage, the broker believes that "pre adjustment is more adequate, after the festival is stable probability; high throughout the year, the effect of steady growth is worth looking forward to, Baijiu sector is expected to suppress after Yang."
