Although there were some market shocks before the Spring Festival, with the time entering the year of the tiger and the self purchase and confidence of major fund companies, many investors began to prepare their investment plans after the festival.
How to vote in the year of the tiger? The recent four seasons report of the fund and the performance forecast of Listed Companies in 2021 may reveal some main lines.
From the quarterly report of the fund, the active partial equity public funds significantly increased their positions in industries such as electronics, automobile, national defense and military industry in the fourth quarter of last year, among which electronic positions accounted for the first and reached a new high; From the performance forecast of listed companies, among the 74 semiconductor companies that have disclosed the performance forecast, 70 have a net profit forecast, of which 39 have a lower limit of 100% growth in the net profit of the parent company.
In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, the semiconductor sector has been in a callback trend, but many 10 billion fund managers have fallen and bought more and more, and significantly increased their positions in relevant concept stocks.
electronic positions accounted for the first record high
Recently, the fourth quarter report of the fund in 2021 has been disclosed. According to the statistics of Minsheng Securities Research Report, the active partial share public offering fund significantly increased its positions in the electronics, automobile, national defense and military industry and other industries in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the proportion of electronic positions reached a record high of 14.41%, ranking first in the CS first-class industry classification, surpassing the food and beverage sector and the power new sector.
Specifically, it shows that zero group, PCB, passive components, consumer electronic equipment and components have been increased by the institutions to a certain extent, with the increased holdings reaching 2.711 billion yuan, 6.642 billion yuan, 8.251 billion yuan and 26.789 billion yuan respectively, and the proportion of positions in the electronic sector increased by 0.71, 1.77, 2.27 and 7.45 percentage points month on month respectively.
Meanwhile, affected by the sentiment of the sector, security, semiconductor equipment, other electronic components and panels were significantly reduced by institutions, with a net decrease of 27.364 billion yuan, 9.068 billion yuan, 6.059 billion yuan and 5.558 billion yuan respectively.
On the whole, the fund's positions in the electronic sector are still mainly concentrated in the direction of chip semiconductor. The top ten companies in the electronic sector with market value are Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , of which 6 are semiconductor companies; Compared with the end of the third quarter of 2021, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) fell out of the top ten and Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) rushed into the top ten.
Recently, many semiconductor companies have disclosed the performance forecast of 2021. The performance of most companies has increased rapidly, with the temperament of "money printer". Northbound capital has also increased the position of several chip leaders in the near future.
For example, calculated according to the average transaction price of the range, Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) has obtained an additional 837 million yuan of northbound capital since new year's day. The company expects the net profit in 2021 to be 940 million yuan to 1.208 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75% to 125%; Individual stocks such as Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) were increased by more than 100 million yuan. Of which Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) is expected to have a net profit of about 808 million yuan to 984 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 1003.94% - 1244.82%; Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 1.9 billion yuan to 2.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 136% - 160%.
more than 10 billion fund managers add positions to semiconductor
In fact, since the fourth quarter of last year, affected by the callback of some chip sales prices, the semiconductor sector has been in a callback trend. Taking the national securities semiconductor chip index as an example, since its high point on December 3 last year, the index has been callback by more than 17% before the Spring Festival, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) and other individual stocks have been callback by more than 25%, but many 10 billion fund managers have been falling and buying in the fourth quarter.
For example, Cai Songsong of noan fund, which is famous for its heavy position chips, increased its stock position at the end of last year. The share market value of noan growth hybrid fund in the net value of the fund increased from 90.03% to 92.57%. The positions of several stocks such as Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) have increased, among which Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) rose to the largest heavy position stock.
Cai Songsong believes that in 2022, the chip industry will face the strongest logic of shortage and price rise and independent key technology is about to break through the superposition of two factors: on the one hand, the shortage and price rise of the chip industry may be more tense. At present, the delivery date of some categories of chips has reached the peak since 2017 and is still extending; On the other hand, independent key technologies are about to break through. One is that the prosperity of the industry continues to accelerate, and the other is the opening of the curtain of substitution.
"But now, the stock price is hovering at a low level, and even continues to decline due to the disturbance of some factors. At present, the scissors gap between the industry and the stock price is becoming larger and larger... When there are differences, it is the time to pay attention and layout." Cai Songsong wrote in the quarterly report.
Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund increased the position of Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) which is the leader of automotive memory chip in the fourth quarter, and made it clear in the quarterly report that he is optimistic about the localization of automotive semiconductors and equipment materials. Among them, the electrification and intellectualization of vehicles have entered the acceleration stage, which will drive the increase of single vehicle consumption of semiconductors, while the verification threshold at the supply side is high, and automotive semiconductors will maintain a high outlook for a long time in the future.
In addition, Du Meng of Shanghai Investment Morgan increased his positions by Ninestar Corporation(002180) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Zheng Weishan of Galaxy fund increased his positions by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Rao Xiaopeng of Hua'an fund and Ji Wenhua of Xingzheng Global Fund increased their positions by Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , and Xingquan Trend Investment Co managed by Xie Zhiyu and Dong Li will transfer Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) into the top ten heavy positions.
optimistic about automotive chips and semiconductor materials after capacity release
Looking forward to the future, it is a consensus that the cycle of global wafer capacity shortage is coming to an end. After the release of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, fund managers generally believe that the localization of automotive chips and semiconductor materials may be an incremental opportunity for the semiconductor industry in the future.
For example, Yang Ruiwen of Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that since the demand for consumer electronics is less than that of new energy vehicles, the investment opportunities of mature processes will be better than those of advanced processes.
\u3000\u3000 "Due to the sluggish demand for consumer electronics such as mobile phones, notebooks and televisions, TSMC's investment in the past mainly focused on advanced processes. However, advanced processes are mainly used in consumer electronics such as mobile phones and notebooks. Therefore, advanced process chips and storage chips may be in surplus first. Due to the low investment in the production capacity of mature processes in the past, the demand is affected by new demand The impact of energy vehicles is higher than expected. It is expected that the release of capacity supply is still limited in 2022, and the capacity remains in short supply. Therefore, investment opportunities for mature processes will be better than advanced processes. "
He said that the investment of semiconductor still revolves around the following aspects:
First, the production capacity is still the king, and the prosperity is divided. It is optimistic about power semiconductors and automotive semiconductors for a long time;
Second, technical barriers and product characteristics are the key to the selection of chip design companies;
Third, with the large-scale investment and construction of China's wafer factories, China's semiconductor equipment and materials companies will face historic opportunities. Due to the high technical barriers and broad potential market space of semiconductor materials, compared with chip design companies and semiconductor equipment companies, it is preferred to invest in semiconductor materials companies under the same valuation.
Coincidentally, Li Xiaoxing of Yinhua Fund also said that the rapid expansion of Chinese wafer factories will drive the localization of upstream equipment and materials. Compared with the semiconductor equipment with second-order conductivity of prosperity, from the perspective of investment, we are more optimistic about the semiconductor materials with consumable properties and the equipment parts with low localization rate and expected to achieve nonlinear growth.
