Welcome the God of wealth on the fifth day of the lunar new year, such as tiger’s “billion” consumption!
In 2021, the market performance of the whole consumer sector fluctuated, which brought great challenges to investors. Looking forward to 2022, what new changes are expected in the consumer industry? What are the new investment opportunities?
On February 5 (the fifth day of the Lunar New Year), in the Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) “new year welcomes the God of wealth” series live broadcast program, Zi Meng, leader of the consumption group of the Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, talked to Dong Qi, chief Macro Analyst and Chen Xianshun, chief strategic analyst of the Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Research Institute, and made the latest investment research and judgment on the future opportunities of the consumer industry in 2022.
consumption turns around
configuration value highlights
Dong Qi said that under the influence of a series of factors such as the rebound of the epidemic and economic expectations, the overall performance of consumption last year was relatively flat, especially at the end of 2021, the social zero data was relatively low. Looking forward to 2022, the general direction of consumption restoration will not change. The annual social zero growth rate is expected to be about 6% to 7%, and the compound growth rate is expected to be about 4.5% to 5%.
In terms of style research and judgment, Chen Xianshun believes that the stability of profit superimposes the repair trend, and the value style will return to the center of the stage of configuration. The “weak cycle” attribute of consumption provides certainty in the process of economic slowdown. In history, under the environment of “weak recession + weak easing”, the return on consumption is relatively good.
For the overall view of this year’s consumer industry, Zi Meng believes that it can be described as “the best of times”. In 2021, the performance of the consumer industry was weak, including the zero growth rate of social security, and the growth of catering, tourism, hotel and other industries greatly affected by the epidemic was slightly lower than the market expectation. In 2022, it has been repeatedly emphasized that to stabilize the economy, we must first “stabilize consumption”. Consumption has become a “stabilizer” and “ballast” to maintain the stable operation of the economy, and its contribution to economic growth has become increasingly prominent.
Zi Meng said that with the steady growth, the continuous development of consumption promotion policies and the continuous improvement of residents’ income level, the consumer industry is expected to show a steady and positive development trend in 2022. The marginal impact of repeated epidemics on the fundamentals of the consumer industry will continue to weaken, and both the constraints of consumption scenarios and consumption expectations will improve.
optional consumption is shown in the top
required consumption future force
In terms of market rhythm, Zi Meng suggested focusing on optional consumption in the first half of 2022 and mandatory consumption in the second half of 2022. Recently, various consumption promotion policies have focused on optional consumption sectors such as new energy vehicles, household appliances and home furnishings. The leading companies in these industries are expected to usher in a relatively certain performance growth dividend period under the favorable policies.
\u3000\u3000 “In the second half of the year, with the continuous promotion of common prosperity, the income level of low-income groups and the employment situation of young people are expected to gradually improve; at the same time, the price of upstream raw materials is expected to gradually fall, resulting in the decline of the cost side of some consumer goods prices, the improvement of the profit side of some consumer goods enterprises may be greater than the income side, and the mass consumer market is expected to usher in marginal improvement 。” Zi Meng said.
For the main reasons for paying attention to optional consumption in the early stage, Dong Qi believes that three factors are very important: one is to promote consumption policies to hedge the economic downturn, the other is to alleviate the lack of core and trigger compensatory consumption, and the third is that the real estate is expected to gradually stabilize in the first half of the year, which is specifically reflected in the repair of automobile, furniture and household appliance consumption. The focus on compulsory consumption and mass consumption in the later stage mainly stems from the indirect transmission of the force of the steady growth policy, which has brought about the improvement of the income of urban low-income groups, promoted the overall improvement of mass consumption, and the price environment brought about by the gradual rise of CPI inflation in the second half of the year.
In Dong Qi’s view, the current consumption pressure can be divided into two parts: first, the consumption constraints brought by the epidemic prevention and control, mainly focusing on the consumption of accommodation, culture and tourism, catering and other services; Second, the phenomenon of delayed consumption is concentrated due to the weakening of expectations and other factors.
Among them, with regard to the consumption constraints brought by the epidemic prevention strategy, Dong Qi believes that with the gradual mitigation of the epidemic situation in China during the year and the repair of the consumption scene, the above areas have relatively strong volume and price rebound space, and the core focus is on the evolution of the epidemic situation and epidemic prevention policies; For the impact from the perspective of employment and economic expectation, Dong Qi suggested that the core focus should be on the transmission of the power of stable growth policies. This part of consumption is more related to mass consumption and mandatory consumption. At the same time, it will also be the core highlight of consumption and investment in the whole year.
In the field of mass consumption, Dong Qi also pointed out that its structural highlights may appear in the following aspects: first, food, clothing and daily necessities with high marginal consumption propensity of low-income groups, as well as Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , rural tourism and home stay supported by policies; Second, online retail as an important direction for the development of urban and rural business system in the future; In addition, under the long-term policy guidance of common prosperity, the consumption of goods and services that can enhance the public’s sense of access and happiness will also be easier to expand the market space in the future.
