What to invest in 2022? How?
First of all, we can summarize several main lines representing the evolution of market conditions in the past few years: first, it represents the consumption upgrading trend yearning for a better life, second, it represents the efficiency improvement direction of energy innovation, third, it represents the life science direction of a better life, and fourth, it represents the advanced technology direction of technological hard power to improve production efficiency.
Back in 2018, we can find targets with poor expectations in food and beverage, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, biotechnology, integrated circuit, military industry, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other directions by adhering to these main lines. Looking back at 2021, the market may be in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, military industry, semiconductor and other tracks. However, the reversal of one year does not mean that the next year is in the same direction. In the face of uncertainty, to find out the value and cost performance of investment, we need to make a choice between trend and reversal, earn money from the ability circle and the fundamental framework, and give full play to our ability circle to find alpha in the times. Talents who can adhere to it will have a greater opportunity to obtain returns.
The goal of high-quality development reflects the yearning for a better life. In the past few years, the investment in corresponding fields has achieved the same process, but this process is accompanied by fluctuations, and fighting short-term fluctuations requires a long-term perspective and belief. Standing at the moment, we need to answer and explore: first, whether the track with prosperity will have market value space matching the expected growth and valuation; Second, whether the monetary cycle and fiscal cycle of the game have a pulse impact on the economy more than a quarter; Third, whether there are sectors and companies with post epidemic situation and policy cycle dilemma reversal; Fourth, whether we can still find small and beautiful companies with competitive advantages or possible rapid development in the industrial chain; Fifth, whether we can find a new track representing the future direction of industrial development, such as digital economy.
A good company or industry can form its own moat and competitive advantage with the logic of increasing penetration, so as to really help investors create value. Although the investment we are facing now will be more complex than last year, and we can see the preference for undervaluation, low allocation and low position at the beginning of the year, we should return to the industry analysis of supply and demand criteria. In this, we must distinguish which industries are worthy of long-term investment, which have poor short-term expectations, which have space in the future, which are growth investment opportunities, which are cyclical investment opportunities, which need fixed investment, which need stop loss if we read it wrong, and which can increase positions with floating profits if we see it right. In my opinion, it represents the yearning for a better life and the improvement of high-quality development efficiency, and represents the direction of new technological change and policy guidance. We can adhere to looking for appropriate investment opportunities, carry out fixed investment and long-term investment, or have a greater time winning rate; The marginal change direction of the game on the left side has elasticity and odds, but we should stop profits and losses well in order to find investment opportunities with more odds and win price performance in macro variables.
Back to the consumer sector, especially the Baijiu sector, after the new year's day in 2022, the whole Baijiu sector fluctuated. However, we are not pessimistic about the disturbance. The consumption scenario may be better than last year in some cases. We still maintain confidence in the payment collection and performance certainty in the first quarter. This confidence is not echoed by others, nor is it that a channel's concern about moving sales has been corrected in a week, but the examination of the industry and high-quality enterprises in a broader scope and vision. Last year, the high growth enterprises will remain dynamic. Of course, this vitality is the confidence in the ceilings of enterprises in a longer dimension. In the face of short-term game, long-term growth actually has a more adequate investment dimension, and looks at the long and long term, and understands the long-term property of investment consumption and Baijiu investment, which is anti inflation or even surpassing. Baijiu Baijiu has been thinking seriously in an environment of excessive panic and over excitement, and has been growing with most liquor investors and even fund managers of Baijiu and liquor fund.
In the past year, although the performance of the whole consumer sector was average, many investors remained firm and gained in the process of our company, which is also what we are happy about. In the new year, we will still insist that although the dissemination of information in this era is very fast, it is more valuable to think objectively and not follow others.
Looking ahead, benefiting from the certainty of the current ppi-cpi convergence trend, the performance and valuation space of consumer stocks this year are certain. Difficult times and cycles will always pass. Thank you for sticking to consumption and investment. We will stick to looking for cost-effective investment tracks and investment targets in consumption leaders; On the basis of research tracking and factor optimization, we will adhere to the selection of growth stocks outside the sample, look for the differences in the inner outlook of the sample, look for cost-effective investment opportunities, appropriately participate in the consumption investment of Hong Kong stocks, flexibly grasp the performance growth and capital driven valuation process, do not blindly pessimistic in times of panic, and maintain calm judgment in times of optimism.
Thank you for the past year. We will work harder in the New Year! Happy new year to all investors!
