The strategy of securities companies has always attached importance to the income ranking of gold stock portfolio, which is one of the manifestations of the investment and research ability of securities companies.
According to the data of each city, the gold stock portfolio of securities companies closed down one after another in January. Only Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , Huachuang securities and Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) three securities companies outperformed the Shanghai stock index. The gold stocks with the highest increase were Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) (21.32%), Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (12.69%) and Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (11.52%).
Can we stop the decline and rebound after two years and open the “spring market”? As of February 2, the financial Associated Press reporter counted the February gold stock list of 13 securities companies, of which Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was strongly promoted by four seller institutions and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) was recommended by three institutions.
In February, the strategy proposal of securities companies focused on the two main lines of stability – steady growth and consumption. The steady growth sector suggests paying attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials and new infrastructure such as wind power and photovoltaic. The consumer sector suggests that the Baijiu and pharmaceuticals with high certainty should be paid attention to, as well as the appliances and mass consumer goods that benefit from subsidy policies.
in January, gold stocks of securities companies suffered “Waterloo”
In January, the gold stock portfolio of securities companies suffered a “Waterloo” and closed down one after another. Only the gold stock portfolio of three securities companies outperformed the Shanghai stock index, namely Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , Huachuang securities, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) . The income of gold stock portfolio in January was – 2.94%, – 7.15%, – 7.44% respectively.
In addition to Tianfeng, Huachuang and Zheshang, the top gold stock portfolio of securities companies in January also included Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) , Guosheng securities, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , Galaxy Securities, YueKai securities and Ping An Securities, with a decline of less than 9%.
The dismal gold stock portfolio of securities companies is closely related to the market performance. According to the data of each city, the target of 350 gold stocks in the whole market fell by an average of 11.54% in January. In the same period, the main A-share indexes closed down one after another. The Shanghai stock index fell 7.65%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 7.62%, and the gem index fell 12.45%.
According to the data, in terms of individual stocks, the highest increase in gold stocks of securities companies in January was Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) , with a revenue of 21.32%, followed by Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (12.69%) and Three’S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (11.52%); The top three declines were Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) (- 36.17%), Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) (- 32.99%) and Shinva Medical Instrument Co.Ltd(600587) (- 32.64%).
On the other hand, the largest declines in gold stocks of securities companies in January include Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) , Cinda securities, Minsheng securities, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities, Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) , Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) , Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , and the monthly income of the portfolio is between 14% and 19%.
Baijiu again pushed
According to Kaiyuan securities, based on the industry rotation model, the industry bulls in February were: Commerce and retail, real estate, household appliances, medicine and biology, building materials, coal, computers, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery.
As of February 2, the financial Associated Press reporter counted the list of February gold stocks of 13 securities companies, among which the sellers mostly recommended food and beverage and consumer stocks.
In terms of individual stocks, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was strongly promoted by four seller institutions, Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) was recommended by three institutions. In addition, Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) was also recommended by two securities companies.
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was recommended by Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) . Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the performance of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) in the first three quarters is stable, and the revenue is likely to exceed 100 billion in 2021. In the medium and long term, the high brand barrier of Maotai remains unchanged, and the market-oriented marketing reform is expected to further promote the gradual recovery of external profits, and the path of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is clearer. Moutai’s performance in Baijiu sector is still determinate, product structure is further cleared up, and overall consideration of volume and price and new executive factors will be expected. Moutai’s performance will still exceed expectations in the next two years. After the January callback, the current valuation is in the long-term value layout area.
Maotai is the first gold stock of Everbright in February, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that there have been three periods in which the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly since 2010, during which the consumer sector has performed well. The consumer sector has more advantages over the past 22 years, and the valuation has been adjusted accordingly. It is suggested that the Baijiu and medicine with high certainty should be paid attention to, as well as the household appliances and mass consumer goods that benefit from the subsidy policy.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that gufajin, as the representative of the new process, catalyzes the overall shift of gold sales mode to “pricing by gram” in 2022, and the industry will rely on “processing fee” to obtain premium, and leading brands will benefit. Jewelry brand leaders will enter the “golden” era. The performance growth rate of Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) will exceed 20%, and the performance growth rate and certainty will exceed market expectations.
As for the investment logic of Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Minsheng Securities believes that the “commercial bank + investment bank” model has made achievements in wealth management income, deposit cost saving and group linkage, which proves the potential of the model; Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) the entire middle and senior management and operating institutions have the endowment to lead other peers in the interbank market and investment banks, which is more suitable for the transformation of traditional banks in the era of great wealth management; Capital constraints are tight, which may affect expansion in the future. It is urgent to rely on debt to equity swap. It has the ability and willingness to make a quick decision by releasing performance in 2022.
steady growth and consumption are the two main lines
In terms of industry allocation, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) and others have suggested paying attention to the two main lines of stability – steady growth and consumption.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that among the five upward growth ranges of fixed asset investment since 2010, the sectors with the best overall performance include banking, real estate, building materials, household appliances, construction and other industries that typically benefit from the “steady growth” policy. It is suggested to pay attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials and new infrastructure such as wind power and photovoltaic.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the main reason for the recent market weakness is to see the demand for stable growth, but the policy implementation is slower than expected, and the pessimistic economic expectation has not been repaired. The logical deduction of steady growth needs data support, and the credit of Q1 will become the key to a good start, that is, whether it can realize the transmission from wide currency to wide credit, which will directly affect the repair of pessimistic economic expectations. If the credit supply in January is less than expected, the infrastructure and real estate sectors will continue. If the credit gets off to a good start in January, the pessimistic expectation of the economy is repaired, the steady growth sector gradually enters the cashing period, and the market style is expected to return to high growth. The growth sector with deep decline in the early stage is expected to return to the upward trend.
For the future, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that the oversold rebound is worth looking forward to, but it still needs patience to continue to pick up. The market has expectations for the rebound after the Spring Festival, but it is generally pessimistic about the second quarter. China’s economic cycle is downward and the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve is clear. Medium term concerns suppress the willingness to do long in the short term.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) believes that if the market wants to continue to recover, it needs the following conditions: first, the market finds that the policy can give consideration to medium and short-term stable growth and long-term economic stability, or at least see that the data of social finance, credit and infrastructure investment significantly exceed expectations in the short term. Second, the 2022 first quarter report of the overvalued track continues to verify the high boom, or the strength of China’s “wide currency” is higher than expected. In addition, the Fed’s tightening pace is no longer marginal than expected, which is also an important external guarantee for market stabilization.
