This year, the A share market has been in a rally, with the Baijiu index falling by more than 15%. At the same time, the fund’s four seasons report in 2021 showed that by the end of last year, the market value of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) held by public funds was 121.96 billion yuan, exceeding 119.96 billion yuan of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and returned to the number one heavy stock of public funds by a narrow margin. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and other Baijiu shares also listed in a number of securities dealers February gold shares list.
Can “public offering favorite” usher in a good start after the Spring Festival? Today, the Hou Hao, deputy director of the investment fund quantification department, has recently issued a statement that the confidence and the performance of the Baijiu enterprises in the first quarter still remain confident. The growth of the high growth enterprises last year has certain certainty on the performance and valuation space of the consumer stocks.
On the whole, he believes that it represents the yearning for a better life, the improvement of high-quality development efficiency, and the direction of new technological change and policy guidance. We can adhere to looking for appropriate investment opportunities.
the past reversal market does not represent the direction of this year
Summarizing several main lines representing the evolution of market conditions in the past few years, Hou Hao believes that the first represents the consumption upgrading trend yearning for a better life, the second represents the efficiency improvement direction of energy innovation, the third represents the life science direction of a better life, and the fourth represents the advanced technology direction of technological hard power to improve production efficiency.
“Back in 2018, if we stick to these main lines, we can find targets with poor expectations in food and beverage, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, biotechnology, integrated circuit, military industry, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other directions.”
In his opinion, although in the past year, the market may be in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, military industry, semiconductor and other tracks, the reversal in one year does not represent the same direction in the second year.
“In the face of uncertainty, finding out the value and cost performance of investment requires a choice between trend and reversal.” Hou Hao believes that only by earning money from the ability circle and the fundamental framework and giving full play to their ability circle can they find alpha in the times, and those who can adhere to it will have a greater chance to get returns.
fighting short-term fluctuations requires a long-term perspective and belief
The goal of high-quality development still reflects the yearning for a better life. In the past few years, the investment in corresponding fields has achieved the same process, but this process is accompanied by fluctuations, and the fight against short-term fluctuations requires a long-term perspective and belief.
Standing at the moment, he believes that we need to answer and explore the following five questions.
First, whether there will be market value space matching the expected growth and valuation of the track with prosperity; Second, whether the monetary cycle and fiscal cycle of everyone’s game have a pulse impact on the economy more than a quarter; Third, whether there are sectors and companies with post epidemic situation and policy cycle dilemma reversal; Fourth, whether we can still find small and beautiful companies with competitive advantages or possible rapid development in the industrial chain; Fifth, whether we can find a new track representing the future direction of industrial development, such as digital economy.
“A good company or industry can continuously form its own moat and competitive advantage with the logic of increasing penetration, so as to really help investors create value.” Hou Hao admitted that although the investment facing now will be more complex than last year, from the market’s preference for undervaluation, low allocation and low position at the beginning of the year, we should also return to the industry analysis of supply and demand criteria and the smoothness analysis of price increase transmission.
“In this, we must distinguish which industries are worthy of long-term investment, which have poor short-term expectations, which have space in the future, which are growth investment opportunities, which are cyclical investment opportunities, which need fixed investment, which need stop loss if we read it wrong, and which can increase positions with floating profits if we see it right.” He said.
Hou Hao said that it represents the yearning for a better life and the improvement of high-quality development efficiency, and represents the direction of new technological change and policy guidance. We can adhere to looking for appropriate investment opportunities, carry out fixed investment and long-term investment, or have a greater time winning rate. “The marginal change direction of the game on the left side has elasticity and odds, but we should stop profits and losses well, so as to find investment opportunities with more odds and winning ratio and cost performance in macro variables.”
is not pessimistic about the short-term disturbance of Baijiu sector
Back to the consumption sector, especially the Baijiu sector, Hou Hao believes that after the new year’s day, the whole Baijiu sector fluctuates, but it is not pessimistic. In his view, the consumption scenario may be better than last year in some cases, and he remains confident in the collection and performance certainty of the first quarter.
“This confidence is not echoed by others, nor is it that a channel’s concern about moving sales has been corrected one week, but to examine the industry and high-quality enterprises in a broader scope and vision.” He said that last year’s high growth enterprises will still maintain vitality, which is the confidence in the improvement of enterprise ceiling in a longer dimension.
In the face of short-term game, long-term growth actually has a more adequate investment dimension, looking at long and long growth, understanding investment consumption and Baijiu investment, long-term resistance to inflation and even beyond the attributes, thinking seriously in an environment of excessive panic and over excitement. And Baijiu Baijiu and most of the Baijiu investors, even buy liquor and liquor fund managers to grow together.
the valuation of consumer stocks is deterministic
“In the past year, although the performance of the whole consumer sector was average, many investors remained firm and gained something in the process of accompanying us, which is also a happy thing for us. In the new year, we will still insist that although the dissemination of information in this era is not very fast, it is more valuable to think objectively and not follow others.”
Looking to the future, he believes that benefiting from the certainty of the current convergence trend of ppi-cpi and the price rise of the consumer sector since October last year, the performance and valuation space of consumer stocks this year are certain.
Hou Hao said that he would insist on finding cost-effective investment tracks and investment targets among the leading consumers; On the basis of research tracking and factor optimization, we will adhere to the selection of growth stocks outside the sample, look for the differences in the inner outlook of the sample, look for cost-effective investment opportunities, appropriately participate in the consumption investment of Hong Kong stocks, flexibly grasp the performance growth and capital driven valuation process, do not blindly pessimistic in times of panic, and maintain calm judgment in times of optimism.
