When the whole family is happy, it is also the time when the film market receives the most attention every year. Major professional teams and listed companies are competing in this golden schedule, and many excellent works of young and old have emerged, as well as potential investment opportunities. In the Spring Festival of the year of the tiger, what new records have been born?
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2022 Spring Festival has exceeded 2.4 billion yuan
According to the data of cat’s eye professional edition, as of 16:00 on the second day of the Lunar New Year (February 2), the total box office (including pre-sale) of festival files in 2022 has reached 2.464 billion yuan.
A total of 8 new films will be released during the Spring Festival, including 5 feature films “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”, “miracle · stupid child”, “the killer is not too calm”, “Four Seas”, “sniper”, and 3 animated films “pleasant goat and grey wolf out of the basket of the future”, “bear haunt · return to the earth” and “little tiger pier hero”. From the pre-sale situation, as of 0:00 on February 1, the pre-sale of four films, including shuimen bridge of Changjin lake, the four seas, the killer is not too calm and miracle stupid child, exceeded 100 million, which is the Spring Festival file with the largest pre-sale of films in Chinese film history. It can be seen that the audience has high expectations and enthusiasm for this year’s Spring Festival films.
From the perspective of the film, “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” is undoubtedly the biggest winner of this year’s Spring Festival. This gift blockbuster, which was officially announced to be airborne for the Spring Festival on January 13, is a sequel to the box office champion of Chinese film history, Changjin Lake (with a total box office of 5.775 billion yuan). It also brings together seven heavyweight producers such as bona film, Huaxia film, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) and Alibaba film to protect the film. Despite the fact that “Changjin Lake” is the most popular film, and the producer Bona film and a cinema have a dispute over the number of films, which has brought little pressure to the release of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”, from the current box office results, the film not only leads the schedule with a total pre-sale of more than 400 million yuan, but also has reached 1.077 billion yuan as of 16:00 on February 2, Beat other competitors in the Spring Festival.
Not only that, “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” also broke more than 10 records, including the one-day box office of mainland film history war films, the box office of mainland film history war films on the premiere day, and the number of film viewers on the premiere day of mainland film history war films.
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will the “dark horse” break through successfully?
In addition to the unparalleled “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”, as of 16:00 today, the box office of “this killer is not too calm” and “Four Seas” has exceeded 300 million yuan, the box office of “miracle stupid child” has 297 million yuan, and the box office of “bear haunt · return to earth” has also exceeded 200 million yuan. There is still a big gap between several films and “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”. It seems that in this year’s “one super and many strong” pattern, it is very difficult to achieve counter attack by relying on word-of-mouth.
However, the gorgeous counter attack of “dark horse” is also a reserved program of the Spring Festival file over the years. From the perspective of single chip performance, operation Red Sea in 2018, wandering the earth in 2019 and Hello, Li Huanying in 2021 are all well-known “dark horses” in the Spring Festival.
Taking the Spring Festival in 2021 as an example, Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) and Tang Tan 3, endorsed by Chinese film and television and blessed by commercial film IP, led the start. It not only ranked first in the “want to see” list of cat’s eye one month before its release, but also broke many records such as pre-sale box office and first day box office. However, due to the poor quality of the film, the reputation and score plummeted after its release, and the follow-up was weak. In contrast, “Hello, Li Huanying” won the best reputation in the fierce battle with the tenderness of “tears in laughter” and the theme of meeting the needs of family fun in the Spring Festival, gradually released the box office potential, caught up with “Tang Tan 3” at the box office on the fourth day of the lunar new year, and harvested many awards since then.
At present, the only comedy in the Spring Festival file, “this killer is not too calm”, has a regular performance. Although it may be difficult to reach the height of “Hello, Li Huanying”, it is generally in line with market expectations. The film is produced by the team of Charlotte’s troubles and Xihong’s richest man. The producers include seven companies, including Xinli media, Tencent film and Yuewen film and television. Among the co producers, Beijing roast culture media Co., Ltd. is 60% owned by actor Shen Teng.
It is worth mentioning that Shen Teng also participated in the production of his film “Four Seas” through Haikou, a large film and Television Culture Co., Ltd., which holds 100% of his shares, and made a lot of profits in the Spring Festival.
Another “win hemp” actor is Yi Yang Qianxi. During the Spring Festival, Yi Yang Qianxi starred in two films: shuimen bridge of Changjin lake and miracle stupid child. At 0:00 on February 2, his starring box office exceeded 10 billion yuan, becoming the first Post-00 actor with a box office of 10 billion in the mainland.
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the effect of fare increase is not small
According to the lighthouse professional edition, after a year of silence, the total box office of China Film Co.Ltd(600977) in 2021 reached 47.258 billion, returning to 74% before the epidemic – this figure is also affected by the limited attendance of cinemas and the repeated epidemic in some areas. Since the outbreak, the siphon effect of the head schedule has become more and more obvious. New box office records have emerged in the Spring Festival and national day in 2021.
According to the data of Yien, in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021, the box office of the Spring Festival reached 3.428 billion yuan, 5.771 billion yuan, 5.821 billion yuan and 7.827 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 6.14%, 9.51%, 9.20% and 16.59% of the annual box office respectively. The Spring Festival almost laid the tone of the box office of the whole year.
According to the professional edition of cat’s eye, on the first day of this year’s lunar new year, the market produced 1.478 billion yuan of box office revenue, the second best single day performance in mainland film history, second only to 1.692 billion yuan on the first day of 2021.
It should be noted that high ticket prices are one of the main catalytic factors for high box office. Looking at the box office performance of the Spring Festival since 2016, it is not difficult to see that the average ticket price (including service fee) has increased a lot. It was 36.5 yuan in 2016, 37.8 yuan in 2017, 39.7 yuan in 2018, 44.7 yuan in 2019 and 48.9 yuan in 2021. This year, it directly rose to 56.8 yuan, close to the 60 yuan mark, which made many netizens shout “despise”.
In fact, the high ticket price has indeed restrained the willingness of some viewers to watch the film. From 2016 to 2021, the number of film viewers increased steadily on the first day of the lunar new year, and stabilized at more than 30 million after 2018. However, on the first day of the lunar new year in 2022, the total number of film viewers was only 25.36 million, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with 2021.
Although limited by the epidemic and other factors, the producer has to make up for possible losses by increasing the customer unit price, the simple price increase can only produce false prosperity for the data growth of the box office of the Spring Festival. How the 2022 Spring Festival file will eventually be handed over, but the report card remains to be determined later.
Wanlian Securities believes that the epidemic will accelerate industry integration, and the leading companies will benefit significantly after the industry is cleared, especially in low-level cities. The largest increase in the number of film viewers in the sinking market also reflects the market potential of the low-line market. In addition, the policy clearly stated that it would launch a series of supportive policies. Based on policy support + fixed growth and integration measures of leading companies, the industry fundamentals have been improved. The box office continues to pick up + market share increases + business efficiency improves. We can pay attention to the head cinema and core producers.
