Since the beginning of 2022, under the wave of sharp decline in science and technology stocks, Cathy wood's funds, the head of ark investment and known as "goddess of science and technology stocks" and "sister wood", have performed poorly, and ark innovation ETF fell nearly 28% this year.
Wood is known for investing in disruptive and innovative technology companies. Due to the recent rising bond yields and the hawkish turn of the Federal Reserve, ark investment's favorite overvalued technology stocks were bloodwashed.
A few days ago, ark investment released its new year investment strategy as scheduled, with scientific and technological innovation as the core.
At the beginning, wood listed six major investment risks of scientific and technological innovation, namely, rapid development, regulatory obstacles, diversity of fields and market values, political or legal pressure, uncertainty and unknowness, and fierce competition.
Then he reiterated his preference for disruptive scientific and technological innovation: the change developed slowly at first, and then turned earth shaking in an instant. In the future, innovation will replace the existing industries, improve efficiency and market share, which is an opportunity for exponential growth.
Today, AI, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , energy storage, DNA sequencing and blockchain are evolving and integrating, which is also the core research direction of ark investment; Among them, the report points out that with the decline of cost, at present, 14 technologies are approaching the critical point of explosion (as shown in the figure below). When future historians look back at this era, they will call it "an unprecedented technological boom" - everything has changed.
in 2022, the five industries most favored by wood in terms of investment return are AI, battery technology, blockchain, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and gene sequencing. ark investment predicts that the long-term return of the above industries is considerable; From 2020 to 2030, the average annual compound growth rate of these five industries will increase by 26%, 35%, 43%, 51% and 40% respectively.
At the same time, wood also made specific prospect analysis on several sub sectors in the above industries. For example, electric vehicle field, with the increase of mileage, the price of electric vehicle is continuously falling, and the biggest concern of consumers to buy electric vehicles is eliminated. Ark investment predicts that by 2026, the sales of electric vehicles will increase by about 8 times, from 4.8 million in 2021 to 40 million. In the development process, the biggest downside risk lies in whether the traditional automakers can successfully transit to electric autopilot.
In addition, batteries account for the largest proportion of the cost of electric vehicles, which affects whether the latter can compete with the price of fuel vehicles. According to White's law, every time the production scale is doubled, the battery cost will be reduced by 28%; At the same time, lithium iron phosphate battery is also very important in cost reduction.
In the field of autopilot, ark investment is optimistic about the automatic driving vehicle called the vehicle platform. It is estimated that compared with the current car Hailing service, the automatic driving car Hailing platform will reduce the travel cost to one eighth in the future, so as to expand the use scale; By 2030, it will increase global GDP by about $26 trillion a year.
In the field of automated logistics, automated logistics including trucks, UAVs and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) can reduce costs and improve speed and convenience. Ark investment predicts that the future revenue of automated logistics is expected to grow from the current "zero" to US $900 billion in 2030.
In the field of AI, while the training cost drops rapidly, the performance is also significantly improved. In the future, the market value of AI software and hardware companies will increase at an annual rate of 50%, from $2.5 trillion in 2021 to $87 trillion in 2030.
In the field of digital wallet, since 2017, digital wallet has dominated e-commerce payment and will become the primary offline and online payment method in the future. In the next five years, the annual growth rate of global digital wallet is expected to reach 78%, and the market scale will increase from US $1.1 trillion to US $20 trillion.
in the field of gene editing, with the integration of next-generation DNA sequencing, CRISPR gene editing and AI, health care is expected to usher in changes, the pace of scientific research is accelerated, and the medical research area tends to be personalized. The compound growth rate of the market value of gene editing and gene therapy companies is expected to reach 54%, from the current US $130 billion to US $1.1 trillion in 2026.
