The year of the ox A shares failed to rise.
On January 28, the last trading day of the A-share bull year, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.97% to 3361.44 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to 13328.06 points; The gem index rose 0.07% to 2908.94.
Throughout the year of the ox, the Shanghai index fell 8.03%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 16.50% and the gem index fell 14.79%.
After the Spring Festival holiday, can A-Shares entering the year of the tiger usher in a bull market?
global stock market adjustment
In fact, since 2022, the performance of global stock markets has suddenly plummeted.
The three major A-share indexes fell by more than 100 points in a week, which is a rare situation in which more than 4000 stocks fell in multiple trading days.
Stock markets in Europe and the Asia Pacific region also adjusted. The Nikkei 225 index of Japan’s stock market approached the 26000 point mark, hitting a new low for more than a year. The South Korean composite index also fell for several consecutive days, and the lowest point has been adjusted by more than 20% compared with the high in 2021. The US Dow Jones index and Nasdaq index have plunged thousands of points.
Why? Huang Wentao, chief economist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, pointed out that factors outside China have a certain impact. China’s epidemic continues to ferment, consumption expectations are unstable, and the data of infrastructure and real estate did not rebound significantly last December. The downward pressure of growth is still bothering the short-term market.
Overseas, the Federal Reserve released the signal of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, the fermentation of disputes in Ukraine further suppressed risk appetite, and the pressure on risky assets was obvious. In particular, after the hawkish rhetoric was released at the Fed interest rate meeting, the global market was depressed, which also significantly suppressed the sentiment of the Chinese market.
According to the research report given by the China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) strategy, there was a significant adjustment in the stock market at the beginning of last year and at the beginning of this year. The characteristics of the adjustment are that the track with a sharp rise in the early stage fell significantly, and the market phased underestimated the value sector layout.
In terms of the reasons for the market adjustment, the two adjustments are due to two factors: first, the valuation of popular tracks is high and the transaction is crowded; Second, the yield of 10-year US bonds rose and US stocks fell sharply, driving the adjustment of a shares.
However, the core reasons for the two adjustments are different. The above report pointed out that the core reason for the market adjustment in early 2021 was the concern about the tightening of the central bank’s monetary policy. The subsequent refutation of the central bank’s rumor about the tightening of monetary policy and strong economic fundamentals jointly promoted the stabilization of a shares. At present, concerns about economic fundamentals and the lack of sectors with high valuation and cost performance are the core factors hindering the upward trend of the market.
can cattle rise in the year of the tiger?
“From the macro perspective of economic growth, external policies, capital flow and relative allocation value, after the adjustment of a shares, the allocation value begins to appear and can be gradually optimistic.” Huang Wentao judged so.
In his view, China’s economy is at the bottom stage. Under the tone of steady growth, whether it is the total growth rate or the industrial structure, continuous improvement on the margin is a high probability event. At the same time, the real risk of Fed tightening has been exaggerated in the short term, the ballast of China US relations is stronger than before, and the negative expectations of external policies have been fully or even overreacted.
In addition, the long-term trend of foreign capital inflow in 2022 remains unchanged, and the attraction of A-Shares is still increasing. Under the background of new asset management regulations, lower interest rates and non speculation in housing and housing, the value of A-Shares in residents’ asset allocation is getting higher and higher.
Guan Tao, the world’s chief economist, believes that the central bank’s monetary policy has a greater impact on the financial market, and any stock market will have the policy logic of “if the economy is bad, the central bank is good”. The Central Bank of China did not disappoint the market. On January 17, MLF and 7-day reverse repo cut interest rates by 10 basis points to honor the signal of steady growth.
“For the real economy, the central bank needs the cooperation of various policies such as finance and industry, and it needs to take a step-by-step look in the future. The stock market will also return to fundamentals, and the policy expectation has been relatively sufficient.” Guan Tao also said that in the case of more uncertainty, short-term A shares may still be subject to shock adjustment and lack of clear direction. However, the adjustment range may be less than that of US stocks in the future, and the structural market will continue.
Catherine Yeung, director of Fidelity International Investment pointed out that looking forward to the year of the tiger, a number of positive factors will support the Chinese market to usher in the “roaring year of the tiger”, there is more room for monetary policy relaxation, and the valuation of the Chinese market is attractive.
Yang En bluntly said that market volatility always exists, but it often provides attractive opportunities. It is expected that the profit growth of enterprises in the Chinese market will exceed 15% in the next 12 months. Whether relative to its historical average or compared with other markets in the world, the current P / E ratio of the Chinese market is attractive.
