January 2022 is a magic month for investors all over the world. In this month, after a series of events, such as Omicron becoming the world's main virus, the sharp decline of US technology stocks, the tension in Russia and Ukraine and the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, major markets around the world fell more or less, and the decline was far greater than the increase.
major global indexes rose 6 and fell 14
As of the closing of each market on January 31, among the 20 major indexes in the world, only 6 indexes rose in January, and 14 indexes recorded a decline, and the decline was significantly greater than the increase.
Among them, the largest decline was the A-share gem index, which fell 12.45% in January. The largest increase was the FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index, which rose 4.03%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which also led the world's important market index with an increase of 6.64% on January 20, also saw a frequent decline in late January, and finally only maintained an increase of 1.73%, ranking third among the 20 major indexes.
The best performing indexes in January were the FTSE Singapore Straits Times Index and the Manila composite index. In the Asian market, the Mumbai sensex30 index, which performed well in 2021, rose only 0.92% in January. The main reason is that foreign investors have been reducing their holdings of Indian stocks in the past few months, but India and China's mutual funds, banks and insurance companies have increased their purchases, providing support for the Indian stock market. According to the data of the national stock exchange of India, foreign investors sold us $7.24 billion of Indian stocks from October 1, 2021 to January 25, 2022, while Indian Chinese institutions bought us $9.63 billion during this period.
The FTSE 100 index became the only non Asian index that did not fall in January. Due to the tension in Russia and Ukraine, France CAC40 and Germany DAX both recorded a decline of more than 2%.
In the Asia Pacific market, Australia's S S & P 500, the Nikkei index, New Zealand's NZ50 and South Korea's composite index fell 5.89%, 5.94%, 7.48% and 10.56% respectively, larger than the European stock index.
A-share CSI 300, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and gem index fell 7.62%, 7.65%, 10.29% and 12.45% respectively. Among them, gem index ranked the bottom among the top 20 indexes in the world.
Hang Seng Index: from global leader to weak successor
The Hang Seng Index rose 1.7% in January, the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index rose 1.4% in January, and the Hang Seng branch index fell 4.5% in January.
The first day of February is the traditional Chinese Spring Festival. Renyin Tiger comes and xinchou cow goes. For the past year of the ox, the decline of the Hang Seng index can only be described as "miserable". How bad is it? It is even worse than the overall decline of the Gregorian calendar in 2021. Among them, the Hang Seng Index fell by 21.1% in the year of the ox, the national index by 29.7% and the Hang Seng Index by 4994 points, a decrease of 48%.
On January 20, the Hang Seng Index also experienced a high light moment after the beginning of the year. On the same day, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.42%, the Hang Seng technology index rose 4.5%, the Hang Seng state-owned enterprise index rose 3.79%, leading Internet companies rose one after another, meituan rose 11.01%, and Tencent holdings rose 6.6%. All sectors of Hang Seng rose, and the index of essential consumption, real estate construction, medical care, finance, raw materials and other industries rose by more than 2%. On this day, the Hang Seng Index outperformed the major indexes in the world with an increase of 6.64% since the beginning of the year. There was no difference at the moment, which seemed to be a sign of shame before blood washing.
However, as the market worried that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates faster than expected, US Treasury yields continued to rise, triggering the withdrawal of technology stocks. The Hang Seng Index, which leads the world, began to narrow its gains and even turned down almost once. Fortunately, on New Year's Eve, the Hong Kong stock market gave investors a big "Spring Festival benefit", and the three indexes closed up. Among them, the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.07%, the Hang Seng technology index closed up 2.35% and the state-owned enterprise index rose 1.7%. Taking advantage of the rise in Spring Festival benefits, Hong Kong stocks managed to maintain the hard won positive growth in January.
January of big a: Duan Zixing, A-Shares fell
In January, the performance of A-Shares was at the bottom of major global markets, especially the gem index, becoming the worst performing index in the world. For A-share investors who are good at writing jokes, the brilliance of the jokes in January 2022 is just inversely proportional to the performance of the stock market. On January 31, the new year's eve of the members of the National League, the markets opened for trading all over the world achieved good gains, which made the investors resent the performance of 3200 stocks in the two markets on January 28, but the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index still closed down.
Most institutions still have optimistic confidence in a shares. Credit Suisse released the Asia Pacific Investment Market Report, downgraded its rating on the Japanese market to "reduction", and upgraded the rating of the Chinese market from "reduction" to "synchronization with the market". It is expected that China's macro-economy will turn positive, indicating that the valuation will attract and will be supported by national policies, and is optimistic about domestic demand, medical and technology stocks.
In 2022, A-share opportunities and challenges coexist. Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , wrote in his new year's message that on the one hand, we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the interest rate increase and contraction of the peripheral Federal Reserve. On the other hand, we also look forward to the results of China's "steady growth", especially the "wide credit" efforts. The market will eventually stand on a stable new growth hub platform and look forward to new structural opportunities. The trend of intellectualization is about to open, the digital economy is springing up, and a new round of scientific and technological innovation cycle is in the ascendant. China's transformation and upgrading and capital flow to the equity market are the general trend.
Under the tough monetary policy, the three major indexes of US stocks fell
On January 31, the three major indexes of US stocks collectively closed up, with the NASDAQ index up 3.41%, the Dow index up 1.17% and the S & P 500 index up 1.89%; New energy vehicle stocks rose sharply, with velai up more than 17% and Tesla up more than 10%; The US oil and oil distribution week reached a seven-year high. In January, both the US oil and oil distribution rose by more than 17%.
One day's sharp rise could not change the overall performance of US stocks in January. Finally, the Dow fell 3.32% in January, the NASDAQ fell 8.89% and the S & P 500 fell 5.26%.
Morgan Stanley said in its report on January 31 that the rise of the S & P 500 index in 2022 looks challenging because the outlook for U.S. manufacturing activity seems weak. Its analysts said that manufacturing orders may determine the stock trend. There is a close correlation between the new order activity of the monthly manufacturing survey of US stocks and the year-on-year change of the market index, especially in the past 20 years. The close correlation between the S & P 500 index and manufacturing data most often appears on the monthly PMI, but the imperial manufacturing survey report, usually released two weeks in advance, also shows a close relationship with the stock market.
Lisa, chief investment officer, Morgan Stanley wealth management. Shalit said that the market is considering how the Fed's tough monetary policy will work, He further explained: "one possibility is that the Fed tightened its policy too late, which will slow growth and inflation, just as cyclical forces are correcting extreme conditions, thus increasing the risk of recession. Another possibility is that the Fed is too cautious, which will make inflation expected to rise, while consumption is depressed by high prices, thus facing the risk of stagflation."
