In the shadow of the expectation of accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, there was a big shock in the global market, and the market of A-share xinchou year (February 12, 2021 - January 31, 2022) ended with regret. The Shanghai index fell by more than 8% in the year of the ox in the lunar calendar, and the gem fell by 16.5%.
However, when the overall market shows a volatile downward trend, there are still many structural hot spots in a shares. The cyclical sectors such as coal and steel are stronger, and the themes such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic are particularly strong. However, the year of the ox, such as banks, food and beverage, closed down, which has a great impact on the trend of the market.
With the upcoming year of the tiger market in the lunar calendar, many institutions believe that driven by the improvement of capital after the festival, the continuous easing of monetary policy and the expectation of policy dividends of the two sessions, the capital risk is expected to be gradually eliminated, but investors still need to be wary of the impact of potential risk events in overseas and China on the short-term volatility of the A-share market during the long holiday.
the main line of "carbon neutralization" leads
From the perspective of industry sectors, during the lunar year of the ox, mining, steel, chemical industry, new energy and other industries related to the main line of "carbon neutralization" took the lead, while traditional blue chip sectors such as banking, food and beverage, biomedicine and so on were relatively stagnant.
The mining industry rose 45%, the highest in the year of the ox, and electrical equipment (including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and other new energy stocks) rose 38%, followed by the increase. The banking sector fell 8%, the industry sector with the worst performance in the year of the ox, followed by the food and beverage sector, which fell 1%.
Specifically, in the mining industry, there were many bull stocks that doubled. Yankuang energy, Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) and other stocks increased by more than 100% last year. The electrical equipment industry doubled, with more bull stocks, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) and so on rising by more than 200%.
The overall performance of bank stocks in the year of the ox was poor, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601825) , Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) etc. fell by more than 30%. In the food and beverage sector, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) and other sectors decreased significantly.
How to configure the year of the tiger?
Caixin Securities said that in the next 1-3 quarters, the performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communications and computers. The prosperity is a key factor affecting the trend of the industry.
In terms of new energy stocks, Caixin Securities believes that there is still an opportunity for new energy track stocks to obtain excess returns in 2022, but it is expected that the differentiation will intensify, the individual stocks with confirmed performance will still have high growth, and the individual stocks with false performance will be corrected.
In terms of consumer stocks, Caixin Securities believes that the scissors gap between China's PPI and CPI is at an all-time high. It is expected that the convergence period of this round of ppi-cpi will continue from November 2021 to August 2022. The consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the first half of 2022. We can pay attention to the food, beverage and home appliance industries.
Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) rose more than 900%
Although the three major A-share indexes of the lunar year of the ox retreated to varying degrees, individual stocks performed more actively.
According to the statistics of the reporter of the securities times, excluding the new shares listed in the year of the ox, 278 A-shares doubled in the year of the ox, of which the "capped shares" Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) ranked first with an increase of 918.58%, followed by the bull shares Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) which attracted much market attention at the end of 2021 with an increase of 700.17%.
According to public data, Dexin transportation is mainly engaged in road passenger transportation, passenger bus station business and lithium battery equipment cutting mold business. The company's net profit in 2020 is negative and its operating income is less than 100 million yuan, which touches the risk warning of stock delisting. The delisting risk warning of the company's shares has been implemented since April 28, 2021.
Why can a "hat wearing stock" become the "best stock" in the year of the ox? This is related to the company's entry into the lithium battery industry.
With the change of market environment, Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) actively seeks extension expansion. In 2021, the company acquired Dongguan Zhihong precision mould Co., Ltd. to enter the intelligent manufacturing industry. As a manufacturer of automation precision parts with profound technical background, Zhihong precision has a certain market share in China's lithium battery cutting precision mold industry.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the research points out that the lithium battery mold industry is in the domestic substitution stage, with high prices and imperfect supporting services of overseas mold suppliers. With the continuous improvement of the technical level of domestic molds, the substitution of overseas suppliers has been gradually completed. In the future, with the development of battery CTC technology, laminated die will have a large growth space.
In the field of consumer batteries, the company's main customers include Ningde new energy (ATL). In the field of power batteries, the company's main customers include Byd Company Limited(002594) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , AVIC lithium battery, etc. Apple 13 battery and Huawei TWS headset battery mould are supplied through ATL, and its power battery mould products are supplied through Byd Company Limited(002594) . The company has achieved deep binding with its core customers.
In January 2022, Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) issued the announcement of 2021 earnings forecast: it is expected to realize the annual operating revenue of 255-285 million yuan and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 80-110 million yuan.
The company said that in 2021, the scale of the new energy industry increased steadily, the market demand was relatively strong, the sales scale of the company's mold business continued to expand, the sales revenue increased, and the company's performance increased steadily.
Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) single sign income of 200000
During the year of the ox, there were 493 new shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but their performance was quite differentiated. There were not only new shares that could earn more than 100000 with one signature, but also new shares that had to bear a loss of tens of thousands of yuan after winning the lottery.
Among them, Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) one received 198100 yuan, becoming the most profitable new share. After listing, Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) after a short shock, it continued to climb and rise, up to 883.78 yuan. If the winning investors did not sell at the initial stage of listing, they could earn more than 370000 yuan at the highest price.
Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) its main business is the R & D, production and sales of intelligent projection products. At the same time, it provides consumers with accessories products and Internet value-added services around intelligent projection. The company focuses on the field of intelligent projection and constructs a strategic development model with complete machine, algorithm and software system as the core.
On the evening of January 26, Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) released the performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company will be 484 million yuan in 2021, an increase of 215 million yuan compared with the same period last year, an increase of 80.07% year-on-year.
The company said that the main reason for the performance change in this period is that the company's product market performed well in 2021, and the sales volume maintained growth, driving the growth of revenue; Continuously improve the company's gross profit margin and product introduction strategy; On the other hand, in 2021, the company used some idle funds for cash management to obtain income, resulting in an increase in non recurring profit and loss compared with the same period of the previous year.
Domestic energy beverage manufacturer Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) has also attracted strong financial attention after listing. It has raised the limit for 14 consecutive days, and a single signature can earn 195200 yuan. After the opening of the board, Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) share price continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 285.7 yuan / share. If the winning investors insist on holding, the single signing can earn more than 230000 yuan.
However, the breaking of new shares has changed the new ecology. Investors need not only simple subscription, but also in-depth research on the fundamentals of the company. According to the statistics of the reporter of the securities times, there are 22 new shares with negative single signing income in the year of the ox. among them, Aojie technology listed on January 14, 2022 has the largest winning loss, amounting to 27800 yuan.
According to the statistics of wind, the first day drop of Aojie technology on the market is the largest drop in the past 20 years, and it is also the stock with the largest drop on the first day of listing after the implementation of the registration system. In addition, Baiji Shenzhou and Liaoning Chengda Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688739) also broke on the first day of listing, with investors losing more than 15000 yuan.
Analysts pointed out that the risk of innovation is unavoidable. For innovators, it is particularly important to select and select individual stocks. We should pay attention to whether the company, especially the company with high P / E ratio, has the ability of sustainable growth, which can be analyzed from the development trend of the company's industry, the position of the company in the industry, the core technology and business model.
the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen after the festival
Affected by the weakening of capital before the festival, the intensification of differences in the Chinese market and the intensification of fluctuations in major overseas stock indexes, the trading heat before the festival weakened, and the stock indexes of the two cities fell significantly. After the festival, with the gradual release of market selling pressure, hedge funds are expected to return, and many institutions are optimistic about the stabilization and rebound of A-Shares after the festival.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) the latest strategy believes that the market pessimism is expected to repair, and the spring market is still worth looking forward to. Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that historically, the "spring agitation" market appears almost every year and is rarely absent, but its occurrence time is different. In some years, there are noteworthy markets after late January. The logic of this spring's market is still established. The market style switching trend since December 21 is also the embodiment of the restless market to a certain extent. In the future, demand side policies and financial data may be the focus of attention. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to focus on two main lines: steady growth and consumption.
Nomura Oriental International believes that the recent market adjustment is more about the rise of volatility caused by the weakening of capital before the festival. Driven by the improvement of capital after the holiday, the continuous easing of monetary policy and the expectation of policy dividends of the two sessions, the capital risk is expected to be gradually eliminated, but investors still need to be careful about the impact of potential risk events in overseas and China on the short-term fluctuations of the A-share market during the long holiday.
At the same time, the efforts to normalize overseas monetary policy mean that there is still uncertainty in the global financial market. Nomura Oriental International believes that the recent decline in the market has released the risk of A-share valuation differentiation, and A-share has gradually emerged the opportunity of reconfiguration, especially in the related fields such as optional consumption, finance and infrastructure investment, which are more sensitive to the theme of economic stabilization.
Minsheng Securities said that at present, the rise of overseas interest rates has been priced by the market. The source of China's resilience should be the current relatively low inflation level. The difference between China and the United States in real interest rates makes China finally able to exchange the rise of inflation for the recovery of economic growth. The space of policy constitutes the reason for the optimism of the potential future of the market. After the gradual release of market transaction risk, the market is expected to usher in a phased rebound. From the perspective of rebound strategy alone: according to historical experience, the stocks with poor performance in the anti decline industries and the industries with the largest decline since January should be arranged. From the medium-term perspective, we still need to return to the core main line and the supply constraints in the process of demand recovery. The elasticity of inflation is stronger than the demand itself and the change of pricing logic behind it. Investors still need to look beyond consensus.
Dongguan Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve released a partial "Hawk" signal, strengthened its loose monetary policy and fully withdrew from its position, and overseas geopolitical events remain to be observed. Near the Spring Festival, investors' willingness to trade is low, and the volume of the two markets can fall significantly. At present, the overall valuation level of A-Shares is relatively reasonable, the market toughness is significantly enhanced, and there is little possibility of continuous adjustment. It is expected that with the gradual release of market selling pressure, the market is expected to stabilize and strengthen in February.
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305 stocks in the year of the ox doubled, the most bull stocks rose by more than 900%, and the most bear stocks fell by more than 80%. Can the year of the tiger get off to a good start?
