Guest introduction: Yang Delong, member of the chief economist Committee of China Securities Association, special commentator of China Central Television financial channel, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, PhD in global finance of Wudaokou School of finance, Tsinghua University. In July 2006, he joined the south fund research department as an industry researcher and chief strategic analyst, and has been a fund manager of several public funds since 2009; Joined Qianhai open source fund in March 2016; He has been a member of the chief economist Committee of China Securities Association since January 2019.
Track stocks have been significantly adjusted. How will the subsequent market style change? How to distinguish “true risk” from “false risk”? Has the investment logic of the new energy sector changed? The time has come for the overall layout? How to understand the tumbling pharmaceutical sector investment? In this regard, Yang Delong of Qianhai open source fund shares wonderful views with you.
Yang Delong said that the long-term investment logic of new energy has not changed, so after the share price falls, it may usher in the opportunity of layout. Investment will face risks at any time. If there is no risk, there will be no income, but we need to see whether it is a “real risk” or a “false risk”. If it is a “real risk” with fundamental problems, we should avoid it.
For the pharmaceutical sector that has been significantly adjusted recently, he said that the pharmaceutical stocks mainly face the risk of centralized purchase, because the reduction of drug prices caused a great blow to corporate profits, but the innovative drug industry chain and brand traditional Chinese medicine still deserve attention.
below is the essence of writing:
1, Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: the long-term logic of the new energy sector has not changed
host: has the current market style begun to switch.
Yang Delong: track stocks fell sharply in the early stage, while some undervalued sectors rebounded due to their excellent performance. This is also a violent means to complete the style switching. Blue chips with undervalued value and consumer stocks with excellent performance perform relatively well. The performance of cyclical stocks and theme stocks is relatively poor, which also indicates the market of the whole year. Therefore, at this time, we should properly maintain a certain degree of confidence and recognize the current style transformation.
host: will new energy rise in the next year?
Yang Delong: new energy was outstanding last year and fell at the beginning of this year, mainly because it rose much last year, not because the investment logic changed. Before the festival, I made a certain position adjustment and transferred some new energy stocks with large increase to consumer stocks.
Because new energy does rise very high, the greater the valuation difference, which will inevitably lead to short-term pullback. Many new energy stocks doubled last year, so it is normal to see a correction at the beginning of this year. The long-term investment logic of new energy has not changed, so when the shares of new energy fall, it may usher in the opportunity of layout. Of course, this short-term adjustment is more or less in place. There is no rigid standard.
host: what do you think of the military industry section?
Yang Delong: there is a certain commonality between the sharp decline in military industry and the sharp decline in new energy. That is, the previous increase was large and accumulated relatively large profit margins. Therefore, profit taking occurred at the beginning of the year. The investment logic of military industry mainly depends on orders. In the past two years, the growth in military orders has been relatively fast, and the performance of some military stocks has gradually improved, This is one reason why military stocks rose. However, the impact of the stock price fluctuation of military stocks is relatively large, so it is not suitable for ordinary investors to participate. You can allocate some military funds appropriately.
host: semiconductor also fell sharply at the beginning of the year. Has the market expectation really changed?
Yang Delong: more investment in semiconductors is mainly based on the speculation policy, and there is little explanation for the real performance. Because semiconductors belong to our short board, there is a big gap with overseas, and many semiconductor technologies are in the hands of the United States. When China invests in semiconductors, in fact, it is policy that is often fried.
2, Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: see whether it is “true risk” or “false risk”
Moderator: in the current market, what do you think are true risks and what are false risks?
Yang Delong: investment will face risks at any time. If there is no risk, there will be no income. What is the real risk? That is, the operation of the invested company has changed and the fundamentals have changed. You can’t copy the bottom when the real risk falls. You must cut the meat when it falls.
What is false risk? False risk is that the company’s operation has not changed. A good company is still a good company, but its stock price fluctuates. This short-term fluctuation risk of stock price is false risk. When we invest, we can take false risks, but don’t take real risks.
For example, I have always suggested that you configure Baijiu, Chinese medicine, innovative medicine, food and beverage leading enterprises. The decline in share prices is actually affected by the macro environment, not the change in business, and the brand and industry status is still there. Therefore, the risk of these stock prices falling belongs to false risk.
For example, for education and training, the document should be “double reduced”, and the out of school training in primary and secondary schools can not be done. This is a fundamental change and belongs to a real risk. So no matter how much it falls, you can’t buy it. There is a debt crisis in real estate companies, and you can’t copy the bottom when the share price falls by 90%, because it’s a real risk.
Yang Delong: at the end of last year, I told you that the main line of investment in the market in 2022 will be performance as the king. 2022 is a great year for value investment. You should grasp the two important indicators of performance and valuation to invest.
In 2021, the style of the market is biased towards growth stocks, theme stocks and concept stocks. Many value investment targets fell sharply in 2021, but the tide turned around. After some high-quality stocks were killed by mistake, there was an opportunity to copy the bottom. According to the theory of true risk and false risk, let’s take a look at the recent market correction.
In this callback, the largest callback range is new energy, because new energy was the sector with the largest increase last year. The root cause of the correction is that it rose too much last year, and excessive valuation led to profit taking. Replacing traditional energy with new energy is the general direction, and China’s time to achieve carbon neutralization is 2060, that is to say, the development of this industry is still in the early stage, at most in the early stage, so the long-term development trend of the industry has not changed, and the stock price correction is mainly affected by valuation fluctuations, which is a false risk.
However, it is worth noting that the leading enterprises of new energy are in an advantageous position in the industry competition, so they are often the ultimate winners.
Therefore, I am more optimistic about four major track leading stocks, including new energy vehicles and lithium battery industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power and new energy.
Some non leading enterprises, especially those only with the concept of new energy, may have greater business risks this year, which may be a real risk. Therefore, this year’s investment in new energy can not be fried with the edge of new energy as last year, but choose competitive industry leading enterprises.
In terms of consumption, there has been a significant decline in consumption growth in the past two years. In addition, the consumption of white horse stocks has increased too much in the past five years, and the Mao index fell sharply last year. I think the decline of these consumption white horse stocks is a false risk of stock price fluctuation, not a real risk of change in investment logic. Although the growth rate of short-term consumption has decreased, it has not changed the investment value of many consumption white horse stocks, so the decline of share price is an opportunity to copy the bottom.
China’s per capita GDP will exceed US $10000 in 2020. According to the experience of European and American countries, when the per capita GDP exceeds US $10000, there will be a large outbreak of consumption upgrading and total consumption. The epidemic in the past two years is equivalent to suppressing the outbreak of consumption in the short term. However, once the epidemic is over, the consumption growth rate will return. Once the consumption growth rate rebounds, the whole consumption white horse stock is expected to regain its upward trend and even reach a new high. Therefore, we should maintain confidence in consumption white horse stock this year.
From the perspective of macro policy, this year’s macro policy will focus on stable growth. The monetary policy will maintain a wide currency and credit and maintain a low interest rate environment, which will be conducive to the valuation and repair of high-quality leading stocks killed by mistake. So this year’s opportunity, I think the main line is the opportunity of valuation repair, or the opportunity of restorative rise.
The bad start shows that the current market is far from excited, but in a downturn. Peter Lynch once said a famous saying, when you feel desperate, don’t sell stocks, because the price must be very low. At this time, when others are desperate, you must be desperate.
Munger once said humorously that investing is actually very simple, that is, buying stocks from those desperate people and selling them to those excited people. Of course, investment is easier said than done. If you want to do a good job in value investment, you should not only learn the concept of value investment, but also exercise a good attitude and overcome human weaknesses.
3, Qianhai Kaiyuan Yang Delong: optimistic about innovative drugs and brand traditional Chinese medicine enterprises
host: can medicine really pick up this year?
Yang Delong: the main risk of pharmaceutical stocks is the risk of centralized purchase, because the reduction of drug prices caused by centralized purchase has a great impact on enterprise profits. Pharmaceutical enterprises entering centralized procurement may become processing plants and have no pharmaceutical attribute. Medicine was originally a big industry, but after entering the centralized purchase, it was only given the cost price.
Once the drugs are purchased intensively, pharmaceutical companies will have little profit to make, which will lead to difficulties in the operation of these enterprises. Therefore, there is no chance for these medicines, generic drugs and generic drugs. Why do you invest in traditional Chinese medicine? As I said just now, traditional Chinese medicine has certain brand value and is not affected by centralized collection.
Another is innovative medicine. Recently, we have seen a sharp rebound in individual stocks of innovative drugs, because we all know that innovative drugs are not affected by centralized purchase, because there is a 20-year patent protection period, and its monopoly will bring certain profit protection. Therefore, new drugs can be matched relatively, that is, some cro companies. The opportunity of common traditional Chinese medicine is also small, but the opportunity of leading traditional Chinese medicine, especially traditional Chinese medicine with unique formula, is relatively large.
Yang Delong: pharmaceutical just told you that the problem of pharmaceutical stocks is mainly centralized purchase, so it depends on whether the pharmaceutical stocks it holds are generic drugs or innovative drugs, whether they are affected by centralized purchase or not. I think what can not be affected by centralized mining can be firmly held until it rebounds. If affected by centralized mining, we should stay away from it, because the lethality of centralized mining is indeed too great. Of course, the purpose of centralized mining is to reduce drug prices, make Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) affordable, reduce medical costs and crack down on intermediate links. But everything has advantages and disadvantages. In addition, it may lead to no profit for enterprises to engage in R & D. in this way, there will be no competitiveness in innovative drugs in the future. Maybe more innovative drugs are made by Americans and Europeans, so there are advantages and disadvantages.
Moderator: does the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction table have an impact on the A-share market?
Yang Delong: it is inevitable for the fed to raise interest rates and shrink the table. The Fed’s policy regulation, from releasing water to receiving water, will have an impact on the trend of US stocks. Therefore, the risk of US stocks peaking this year is increased, and there may be relatively large fluctuations. However, I don’t think the impact of US stock fluctuations on the A-share market will be too great.
Because there was no A-share rising with the U.S. stock market when it rose before, it will not fall as miserably as the U.S. stock market. It may affect one or two days in the short term, but in the long run, the trend of A-share still depends on China’s policy changes.
host: will Hong Kong stocks have a chance to recover in the next year?
Yang Delong: the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is indeed in a depression, with a certain opportunity for restorative rise. Where are the main opportunities? I think in Internet giants, these companies have changed their work and lifestyle, and their long-term investment value has not changed. However, because of the anti-monopoly law, many of its share prices have been halved. I think these internet giants will have a big rebound this year, which may drive the recovery of Hong Kong stocks. Some high-quality leading stocks in Hong Kong stocks also fell miserably, with a large price difference with a shares. If the price difference is large, there is also a certain rebound opportunity.
