The market in January 2022 was not so bleak. Since the beginning of the year, the main A-share indexes have fallen, among which the gem fell by more than 12% and the CSI 1000 index fell by nearly 13%. However, for the 22 year market, 10 billion fund managers have expressed their views. To this end, the financial association sorted out the views of ten fund managers with a scale of more than 10 billion for investors.
Yi Fangda's blue chip selection believes that the central economic work conference in December 2021 stressed that "adhering to economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party's basic line", and China's economy and enterprises themselves contain considerable potential. At present, the downward pressure on the economy is only phased, and we remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of China's economy, firmly believe that China's economic strength will eventually reach the level of developed countries .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) excellent growth held for two years: driven by active fiscal policy, the growth of infrastructure should be relatively clear
Infrastructure may be a bright spot in 2022. From January to November 2021, China's general public budget revenue was 19125.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, with an average growth rate of 3.4% in the two years; From January to November, the general public budget expenditure was 213924 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. In November, public financial expenditure rebounded from 2.9% to 8.5% year-on-year, and the average growth rate in two years increased significantly from 10.7% to 12.1%. Public financial expenditure is accelerating. There is no significant increase in infrastructure investment in 2021. In 2022, driven by active fiscal policy, the growth of infrastructure should be relatively clear .
Jingshun Great Wall: investment still needs to choose the leading technology in the future and there are greater opportunities for specialization and innovation
The probability of 2022 is the beginning of the end of covid-19 epidemic. From a global perspective, the investment side lagging behind the recovery of consumption is expected to gradually return to normal. In the early stage, China made full use of the time window of rapid increase in export share to reduce macro leverage, adjust economic structure and digest long-term risks, laying a good foundation for sustainable economic development in the post epidemic era. At this stage, China's economic growth is already below the potential growth rate, it is expected that the policy focus of this year will be to broaden credit, stabilize growth and boost domestic demand.
Periodic opportunities will appear in industries related to steady growth, and there may be some valuation repair in real estate and related industrial chains. However, these are phased opportunities, not the future.
We still have to choose the future for our investment. Therefore, we believe that there are greater opportunities for high-quality technology leading white horse stocks and small and medium-sized market leaders represented by specialized Texin. In 2021, large market capitalization stocks have been significantly adjusted. The decline of some white horse stocks that are seriously overvalued and overdrawn for a long time may be gone forever. However, there will be many opportunities for mistakes in the process of general decline. In addition, small and medium-sized market value companies have emerged a number of targets with reasonable valuation and high growth after years of valuation digestion, which contains many opportunities .
China Europe Fund: choose alpha for good industries and beta for difficult industries
Considering the three factors of economy, capital and stock market valuation, the A-share market will have structural opportunities in the coming year. The probability of improvement of the global epidemic is increasing, and the macro-economy will maintain a certain growth. The growth rate of China's economy is declining slowly due to the new construction of real estate, the possible gradual recovery of foreign supply chains, destocking and other reasons. Corresponding to the trend of economic growth, the low interest rate environment abroad will change, prices will rise, and the Federal Reserve will recover liquidity in the future. China has been relatively proactive in dealing with the epidemic, and the central bank's policies are more forward-looking. Under the background of low macroeconomic growth expectations, the currency will be relatively loose, which is beneficial to reducing the volatility of the stock market. At present, A shares have a two-year structural bull market. The overall valuation is not low. There are some structural bubbles. also has a reasonable or undervalued valuation structure, and there is also a structural opportunity .
In the future, we will look for two types of investment opportunities along the main line of "alpha for good industries and beta for industries with reversed difficulties": first, industries with sustained prosperity in the coming years, such as new energy, photovoltaic, military industry and other industries . Most of these industries have expensive valuations, but the fundamentals of subdivided sectors will be divided, We will select the segments with positive changes in Fundamentals for configuration; the second category is the dilemma reversal industry . The stock prices of these industries are low and the short-term operation is uncertain. However, from the perspective of about two years, the probability operation will return to normal, even better than the boom years in history. The representative industries include breeding, catering and tourism, media, real estate, etc. We will dynamically adjust the sector allocation proportion according to the future profit growth rate and valuation of relevant industries.
ICBC Credit Suisse Fund: it is expected that new infrastructure is the first choice for steady growth policy, and technology and green may be the two main lines
In terms of macroeconomic environment, global economic growth will slow down in 2022. Considering the strength of demand side policies and the optimization of structural policies, China's economic growth may gradually stabilize. It is expected that China's PPI in 2022 will fall significantly compared with that in 2021, CPI will rise moderately, monetary policy will maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and the range of fiscal end force will rise compared with that in 2021. In terms of the market, it is expected that A-Shares will be in a period of profit decline in 2022, and it is difficult for the index to have a large performance. The market will also focus on structural opportunities, and the investment cost performance of short-term stable growth may rise. In terms of the whole year, the boom trend and dilemma repair are still the main investment determinants within the one-year dimension.
In terms of economic growth power and transformation, from the medium and long-term perspective, it is expected that new infrastructure is the first choice for stable growth policies, and technology and green may be the two main lines .
Xingzheng Global Fund: China's steady growth tendency is relatively clear, and the traditional economy may also improve
Looking forward to 2022, the major overseas economies, especially the United States, have made it very clear that the process of reducing the table and raising interest rates. At the same time, the United States is in the process of replenishing inventories of real estate, household appliances and cars, and the real economy is also relatively strong. If the rise of interest rates and economic growth can be carried out synchronously and moderately, the financial market may be able to digest this process. China's steady growth tendency is relatively clear, and the traditional economy may also improve .
Personally, I think the main line of market operation will be different compared with 2021. "Economy" will become the most important keyword in 2022, including the economic "countercyclical policy" in the first half and the economic stabilization and recovery in the second half. Therefore, the performance of the economic countercyclical regulation sector and industries with high economic relevance may be better than that in 2021.
For the A-share market, will strive to balance the long-term investment opportunities with "industrial upgrading" as the main line and the medium and short-term investment opportunities with "economy" as the core word .
Harvest Fund: small cap growth stocks have more opportunities for individual stocks, and excellent companies in the manufacturing industry will stand out
We are still optimistic about the large market value stocks represented by banks and real estate. Relatively speaking, we are more optimistic about the opportunity of leading real estate. At the same time, we are still bearish on the beautiful 50 (mainly distributed in the fields of consumption, medical services, science and Technology) with the best performance in the past two years and the large-scale growth stocks represented by the new energy industry. We think it will take a long time to digest the valuation level. The growth of profits is not enough to support the continuous rise of market value, and the growth of profits may not meet expectations. small cap growth stocks will still have more individual stock opportunities . In some subdivided manufacturing industries, excellent companies will stand out and need to be selected from bottom to top. Most of them have the logic of industrial upgrading and import substitution, which is the strongest investment logic in the medium and long term. However, some stocks rose significantly in the short term, and we rebalanced to some extent.
Boshi Fund: Based on the perspective of meso industry, focus on military industry, double carbon and other sectors
Looking forward to 22 years, from the perspective of prosperity ranking, the beginning of 22 years is faced with many adverse factors such as weak consumption and downward real estate. There are few structural prosperity sectors that can be relatively independent of macroeconomic pressure. From the perspective of meso industry, we focus on military industry, power informatization, double carbon and other sectors .
Southern Fund: manufacturing companies with innovative ability will continue to be tapped by the market
In terms of market opportunities, we believe that in the process of manufacturing upgrading, companies with innovative ability will continue to be tapped by the market . Meanwhile, after the correction in 2021, the valuation of many core assets with long-term competitiveness and stable growth in the market has returned to a reasonable level. Therefore, in the 22 year market, we will focus more on the opportunities of relevant industries and individual stocks, and dig into the industrial chain for highly competitive high-quality enterprises in subdivided industries.
hongderuize: steady growth measures will be gradually implemented, and undervalued blue chips will be repaired
Steady growth measures will be gradually implemented, and undervalued blue chips will be repaired. At the same time, we need to be vigilant about some real estate related industrial chains. With the gradual implementation of steady growth measures, undervalued blue chips represented by banks and real estate will be repaired as expected and valued. At the same time, we need to be clearly aware that the firm implementation of the policy of housing, housing and non speculation makes this round of undervalued blue chip market only a repair market. In the future, with the continuous decline of real estate sales data, industries and companies in relevant industrial chains will be affected. We need to select the best among the best, and select individual stocks with strong growth and improved market share.
