2022 is considered to be the first year of the outbreak of hybrid vehicles.
Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of finance, the State Administration of Taxation and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements of energy-saving and new energy vehicle products that enjoy the vehicle and vessel tax preference. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said that the adjustment of this policy is a relatively stable adjustment for the new energy vehicle market.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of industry and information technology said that the technical requirements for energy-saving and new energy vehicles enjoying vehicle and vessel tax preference were adjusted in combination with the release and implementation of standards such as technical conditions for plug-in hybrid electric passenger vehicles (GB / T 32694-2021), and the relevant technical requirements for plug-in Hybrid Electric (including added program) passenger vehicles were adjusted. Some people in the industry believe that the adjustment of the policy is a further favorable policy for the hybrid market; Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) according to the analysis, multiple policies form resonance, and the hybrid market ushers in new opportunities.
policy Dongfeng gives birth to the market outlet, and the hybrid market welcomes new opportunities
This time, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments adjusted the technical requirements of new energy vehicles enjoying vehicle and vessel tax preference, mainly adjusting the relevant technical requirements of plug-in hybrid electric (including added program) passenger vehicles, requiring that the pure electric driving range of plug-in hybrid electric (including added program) passenger vehicles should meet the conditional equivalent full electric mileage of no less than 43 km; The fuel consumption (excluding the fuel consumption of electric energy conversion) of plug-in hybrid electric (including incremental program) passenger car in power holding mode test shall be less than 70% compared with the fuel consumption limit corresponding to the vehicle model in the fuel consumption limits for passenger cars (GB 19578-2021); The electric energy consumption of electric energy consumption mode test shall be less than 135% of the target value of electric energy consumption. According to the different curb weight (m, kg), the target value (y) of electric energy consumption per 100 km shall meet the requirement of y = 0.0112 when m ≤ 1000 × m+0.4； one thousand
At 1600, y = 0.0048 × m+8.60。
According to CS [2018] No. 74 document of 2018, the ratio of comprehensive fuel consumption of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles to the corresponding target value in the current national standard of conventional fuel consumption is treated differently according to the range. Cui Dongshu believes that the adjustment of vehicle and vessel tax policy will not have a great impact on the overall sales of new energy vehicles, but it is an encouragement for the development of new energy vehicles. The industry believes that the significance of policy guidance is more obvious, which is more conducive to the development of hybrid route.
It is generally believed in the industry that 2022 is expected to be the first year of the outbreak of hybrid routes. In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles will continue to decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) it is predicted that according to the new subsidy scheme, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a endurance of 300-400 km and more than 400 km will be reduced by 3900 and 5400 yuan respectively in 2022 compared with 2021, while the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles will be reduced by 2000 yuan. From the data, hybrid vehicles are less affected by the decline of subsidies.
In addition, from the perspective of the double score policy, in June 2020, the decision on Amending the measures for the parallel management of average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle enterprises and new energy vehicle scores, the new double score regulation, vigorously promoted hybrid electric vehicles; For example, the integral calculation method of new energy passenger vehicles has been modified, and the integral of pure electric vehicles with the same range has been reduced by 50%, and the integral of plug-in hybrid vehicles has been reduced by 20%.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) according to the analysis, assuming that the output of traditional energy vehicles of car enterprise a is 1 million, if the proportion of hybrid cars can meet the target of 50% in 2025, the new energy integral requirements will be reduced by 35000, 56000 and 72000 respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to the output requirements of relevant pure electric vehicles will be reduced by 25%, 35% and 40% respectively, Therefore, the inclusion of hybrid vehicles into the double integral accounting standard will encourage vehicle enterprises to produce hybrid vehicles to achieve the double integral goal.
In fact, the energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap 2.0 released in 2020 is considered to be a favorable turning point for the policy of hybrid vehicles; Further strengthen the importance to the hybrid market, which mentioned that new hybrid passenger vehicles will account for 50% of the sales of traditional energy passenger vehicles in 2025, 75% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. In addition, the new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) mentioned the need to deepen the three vertical and three horizontal R & D layout, in which the three vertical refer to pure electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that if the policy promotion is successful, hybrid will become the main theme of “energy-saving vehicles” for a long time.
the “scuffle” of independent brands ended, and the market broke out
The new energy vehicle market grew rapidly in 2021. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times; It is worth mentioning that the overall growth rate of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles has also increased by more than 1.3 times; In December last year, the growth rate of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was higher than that of pure electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 1.62 times.
According to the data of the passenger Federation, in 2021, there were 2.444 million pure electric vehicles in the retail end of new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 168.6%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles including the add-on program reached 545000, with a year-on-year increase of 171.2%, slightly higher than that of pure electric vehicles; Moreover, the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles has been increasing. According to the data of the passenger Federation, the overall share of plug-in hybrid vehicles in new energy vehicles was 15.9% in December 2020, while the sales share of plug-in hybrid vehicles had increased to 19.9% by November 2021.
From the performance of auto enterprises, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Byd Company Limited(002594) in 2021 was 593745, of which 272935 were plug-in hybrid models, and DM hybrid models accounted for 45% of the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles in Byd Company Limited(002594) ; According to the information disclosed by Byd Company Limited(002594) on the investor teleconference, the sales volume of plug-in hybrid models is planned to reach 500000-600000 in 2022, accounting for half of the total sales volume. In 2021, the ideal car will deliver 90500 vehicles with only one incremental hybrid model, the ideal one.
The industry believes that compared with pure electric vehicles, the use experience of hybrid models is closer to traditional fuel vehicles. For example, they also need to supplement gasoline fuel regularly, do not need to rely on special charging devices, and the acceleration and deceleration are more stable. Because the hybrid model has low dependence on battery capacity, it can relatively save high battery configuration cost.
However, at present, the hybrid market is still mainly “monopolized” by Toyota and Honda. With the clarity of market prospects and the blessing of Dongfeng policy, independent brands including Byd Company Limited(002594) have also arranged the hybrid market and launched their own new generation hybrid systems.
For example, Byd Company Limited(002594) released DM-I super hybrid; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ‘s new lemon DHT system, its wey brand will take the lead in realizing comprehensive mixing; Geely Automobile released a new Raytheon hybrid system; Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) release blue whale IDD hybrid system; Chery Automobile launched Chery Kunpeng DHT system, and GAC directly undertook Toyota’s th hybrid technology.
According to the planning of Byd Company Limited(002594) , wey, Harvard, Geely, Lingke, Chang’an and other auto enterprises, about 20 hybrid models will be listed in 2022.
However, in the hybrid market, Japanese Liangtian still occupies the main market share, but the industry believes that with the R & D investment of independent brands, promoting the iterative development of hybrid technology and the gradual layout of joint venture brands, the competition in the hybrid market will be more intense in 2022.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said that due to the long cycle of fully realizing pure electrification and the increasingly stringent multiple restrictions on fuel vehicle emissions and energy consumption in policies and regulations, hybrid vehicles will gradually become the main force of the market in a certain period of time; Among them, independent brands are expected to increase their share in the hybrid market and reshape the market pattern.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive industry innovation research center of Northern University of technology, said that the price of plug-in hybrid vehicles is not much higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, but the fuel consumption is significantly reduced, so it is still very competitive in the market and there is a lot of room for improvement in the market as a whole. According to the analysis of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) , the new generation of hybrid system represented by Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI has solved the core short board that the power loss state is more fuel consuming than the oil vehicle compared with the previous generation of hybrid products, the power of the new generation of hybrid products has been significantly improved, and the industry is about to break out under the catalysis of policy and supply and demand; From the demand side, hybrid can solve the pain point of pure electric use and realize the high-level intelligent experience that fuel vehicles cannot provide. At this time, the hybrid industry is about to break out.
