In 2021, China's civil aviation market recovered from the impact of the epidemic, and the passenger transport volume and freight volume of the whole industry rebounded slightly year-on-year, returning to 66.8% and 97.2% respectively before the epidemic.
Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) the recovery rate of passenger volume and seating rate perform best
The national civil aviation work conference in 2022 disclosed that the passenger traffic volume of the whole civil aviation industry in 2021 was 440 million, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, and recovered to 66.8% before the epidemic. The shell finance reporter of Beijing News found that the six listed airlines completed a total of 328 million passenger transportation in 2021, accounting for 75% of the total industry, and the overall recovery rate was 63%.
Passenger traffic volume and recovery rate.
Among the six listed airlines, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) has the closest passenger volume recovery rate to the pre epidemic level. In 2021, the passenger traffic volume of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) will recover to 95.14% in 2019; The second is Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , and the recovery rate is 83.77%; The recovery rate of China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China remained at about 60%; HNA's passenger volume recovery rate was the lowest, 50.56%.
The recovery speed of passenger traffic volume of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) is also better than that of other listed airlines. Some analysts pointed out that it is related to the relatively low proportion of international flights of the two listed airlines. The shell finance reporter of the Beijing News also noted that the recovery rate of passenger traffic on Chinese routes of the six listed airlines is better than the overall recovery rate of airlines.
Passenger traffic volume and recovery rate of Chinese routes.
Judging from the recovery of Chinese routes of various airlines, except that the recovery rate of passenger traffic volume of HNA with special circumstances remains at about 50%, the recovery rate of China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China has increased to more than 70%, and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) has returned to the pre epidemic level.
The passenger traffic volume has maintained a high recovery level of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , and the passenger seat rate has also remained at 82.87%. Although there is still a certain gap compared with 2019, it has increased by 3.2 percentage points compared with 2020. In addition, the three major airlines represented by China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China have maintained a seating rate of 68% - 71%, but it has declined to varying degrees compared with 2019 and 2020.
passenger load factor
China Southern Airlines has the highest input in transportation capacity and China Eastern Airlines has the highest growth rate in freight volume
The shell finance reporter of Beijing News noted that although the development environment of aviation companies in 2021 is not ideal, in addition to Air China and HNA, the other four aviation companies are still increasing the investment in fixed assets represented by aircraft. In 2021, China Eastern Airlines has the largest net increase of 27 aircraft; Followed by Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , with a net increase of 12 aircraft; China Southern Airlines and Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) have a net increase of 11 aircraft; Air China has the largest net reduction of 10 aircraft; HNA reduced two.
Fleet size.
In terms of passenger transport capacity investment, China Southern Airlines invested the most, reaching 213.9 billion seat kilometers; Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) has the least investment, about 35.92 billion seat kilometers. At the same time, Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) has the highest investment growth rate, reaching 15.25%; The investment growth rate of China Southern Airlines was the lowest, about - 0.37%. In terms of recovery rate, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) has the highest recovery rate of passenger transport capacity investment, up to 94.91%; HNA's passenger transport capacity investment recovery rate is the lowest, about 48.09%.
Input and recovery rate of passenger transport capacity.
According to the data released by the national civil aviation working conference in 2022, the cargo and mail transportation volume of the whole civil aviation industry in 2021 was 7.32 million tons, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, and recovered to 97.2% before the epidemic. The shell finance reporter of the Beijing News found that the six listed airlines completed a total cargo and mail transportation volume of 4122900 tons in 2021, accounting for 56% of the total industry, and the overall recovery rate was 83%, slightly lower than the average recovery level of the industry as a whole.
Freight volume and recovery rate.
From the performance of each airline company, China Southern Airlines leads the other five listed airlines with a freight volume of 1441700 tons; Followed by Air China, with a cargo volume of 1186700 tons. It is worth noting that the recovery rate of Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) freight volume is the highest. The freight volume has recovered to the pre epidemic level in 2021. Except that HNA's recovery rate remains at 66%, the recovery rate of the other four airlines is 80% - 95%. In addition, in terms of growth rate, China Eastern Airlines had the highest growth rate of freight volume, up to 29.03%, followed by HNA, with a growth rate of 24.96%.
HNA expects to make a profit of at least 4.5 billion yuan in 2021
According to the report issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021, affected by the epidemic, the global aviation industry is expected to have a net loss of US $51.8 billion in 2021. China's aviation industry is also facing severe challenges. Although China's air passenger transport volume rebounded in 2021 compared with that in 2020, the demand for international air passenger transport continues to be low due to the overseas epidemic and international travel restrictions. In addition, the continuous rise of fuel prices, exchange rate fluctuations and other factors have increased the cost burden of airlines.
At present, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines and Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) have issued performance loss forecasts for 2021. Among them, Air China expects a net profit loss of 14.5 billion yuan to 17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change range of - 0.63% to - 18%; China Eastern Airlines expects a net profit loss of 11 billion yuan to 13.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of - 14% to 7%; China Southern Airlines expects a net profit loss of 11.3 billion yuan to 12.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change range of - 4.2% to - 18%; Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) the estimated net profit loss is 420 million yuan to 330 million yuan, with a year-on-year change range of 10.6% to 29%.
It is noteworthy that Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) and HNA are expected to turn the net profit into profit in 2021. Among them, Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) is expected to make a profit of 35 million yuan to 52 million yuan, and HNA is expected to make a profit of 4.5 billion yuan to 6.2 billion yuan. The positive development of the net profits of the above two airlines in 2021 is not only due to the excellent performance of their business, but also related to investment and restructuring. HNA made it clear in the announcement that the turnaround of performance is mainly due to restructuring, with an impact of about 16 billion yuan to 17.6 billion yuan.
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) busiest, Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) fastest recovery
According to the data of flying standard, the actual number of outbound flights in China in 2021 was about 3.9 million, accounting for 17.88% of the world, with a year-on-year increase of 5.12%; Compared with 2019 before the epidemic, the number of flights resumed exceeded 80%. In the annual list of 20 ten million airports in 2021, Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has the largest number of outbound flights, with 160000 flights, once again becoming the busiest airport of the year; The flight volume of Beijing Daxing airport and Wuhan Tianhe Airport recovered most significantly year-on-year, with an increase of more than 57%.
In 2021, the number of outbound flights of China's ten million airports was the top 10. Figure / data picture
Among the three listed airports, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has the largest passenger throughput in 2021, reaching 40.257 million person times. Meanwhile, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) 2021 has the largest number of flights taking off and landing, reaching 362500.
Passenger throughput.
Number of flights taking off and landing.
In terms of recovery level, Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) performed well, and achieved the highest recovery rate in terms of passenger throughput and takeoff and landing sorties, 68.69% and 85.87% respectively; The recovery rate of Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) is the lowest among the three listed airports, and the recovery rates of passenger throughput and takeoff and landing sorties are 42.3% and 68.29% respectively.
In terms of performance, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) have issued the announcement of performance loss in 2021. Among them, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) net profit is expected to lose 1.64 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change range of - 29.44% to - 40.49%. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) the expected net profit loss is 381 million yuan to 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year change range of - 52.18% to - 86%. Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) the expected net profit loss is 25.5 million yuan to 50.8 million yuan, with a year-on-year change range of - 190.84% to - 280.98%.
In the announcement, the three listed airports said that the performance loss was related to the continued impact of the epidemic in 2021. The spread of the epidemic in many places in China limited the resumption and growth of China's airline business. Limited by the global epidemic situation, the business volume of international routes is still greatly affected.
Recently, the "14th five year plan" for civil aviation development was issued. It is estimated that by 2025, the number of civil transport airports will reach more than 270, ensuring 17 million flights and 930 million passenger trips. Qunar aviation and tourism big data Research Institute pointed out that the civil aviation passenger transport market in 2022 will continue the characteristics of 2021 and will still be a constrained market under epidemic prevention and control, but it is expected to be improved as a whole. Among them, the passenger transport volume will be greatly improved on the basis of 2021 and may even be close to the level of 2019.
