On January 30, the data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.1% in January, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing business activity index was 51.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; In January, the comprehensive PMI output index was 51%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month; The three indexes remain above the boom and bust line
PMI monthly trend data source: National Bureau of Statistics
manufacturing PMI has been higher than the zero point for three consecutive months
In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 50.1%, which was higher than the zero point for three consecutive months, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off-season of production, and the recent slowdown in market demand weakened the expansion of manufacturing industry.
In terms of the composition of manufacturing PMI index, the five major components, including production index, new order index, raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index, fell by 0.5, 0.4, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month; The production index is higher than the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing production continues to expand.
Among other relevant indicators of manufacturing PMI, the price index rebounded. The purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 56.4% and 50.9% respectively, rebounding 8.3 and 5.4 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the expansion range.
From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries rose to a high range of more than 60.0%, and the purchase price of raw materials and product sales price of relevant industries increased significantly.
In terms of enterprises, different types of enterprises continue to differentiate. The PMI of large enterprises was 51.6%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and the prosperity level rebounded for two consecutive months; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.5%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, still higher than the critical point, and continued to expand; The PMI of small enterprises was 46.0%, 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, falling to a recent low, indicating that the production and operation pressure of small enterprises is large and the development trend continues to be weak.
Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst at the financial market department, told surging news that with the rising price of raw materials, enterprises generally reduce their inventory of raw materials, especially small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises with weak risk resistance; In January, the prices of raw materials and ex factory prices stood in the expansion area of the 50 Kuo Rong line again, so we need to be vigilant about the upstream and downstream price transmission.
\u3000\u3000 "In the first quarter, it is expected that the manufacturing PMI index will continue to fluctuate around 50%. China's demand will recover steadily, the effect of the enterprise rescue support policy and China's counter cyclical adjustment policy will gradually appear, and the supply chain and industrial chain are expected to be gradually repaired, which is good for the manufacturing industry. However, the peak of the overseas epidemic has not yet arrived, China's epidemic prevention pressure is not small, and the input costs of energy and raw materials continue to affect some small and medium-sized enterprises Due to certain pressure and seasonal factors, the pace of manufacturing expansion was relatively slow in the first quarter. " Zhou Maohua said.
PMI expansion in non manufacturing industry slowed down
In January, the non manufacturing business activity index was 51.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest point in nearly five months; The non manufacturing sector as a whole continued to expand, but the pace slowed down.
By industry, the business activity index of the service industry was 50.3%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous month; The business activity index of the construction industry was 55.4%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.
Zhao Qinghe said that the recovery of the service industry has slowed down, and the trends of various industries show obvious differences. The business activity index of monetary and financial services is in the high boom range of more than 60.0%. Recently, a series of monetary policies supporting the development of the real economy, such as the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates, have been implemented, and the total business volume of relevant financial institutions has increased rapidly; The retail business activity index rose by 5.5 percentage points over the previous month to the expansion range, and the driving effect of holiday consumption is more obvious; The business activity index of accommodation, residential services and other industries involving contact consumption is in the low range of less than 45.0%, indicating that the business volume of the industry has decreased under the influence of the weakening of residents' consumption willingness.
"The decline of the service industry index is mainly dragged down by the sporadic epidemic, the tightening of local epidemic prevention measures and residents' dining out, tourism and other activities tend to be cautious, but the service industry as a whole is located in the expansion area, reflecting that China's service industry activities are still expanding and recovering, indicating that the service industry remains resilient." Zhou Maohua said that considering sporadic cases and seasonal factors, the PMI index of follow-up service industry is expected to fluctuate.
Zhou Maohua said that the service industry is expected to maintain regional expansion. The main reasons are that the overall situation of epidemic prevention in China is improving, the vaccine is popularized, the impact of the epidemic on the service industry is gradually weakened, and the service industry is expected to maintain expansion; However, the global epidemic situation is still unstable and affected by local sporadic cases in China. Compared with normal years, China's service industry as a whole will still be restrained to a certain extent.
In terms of the outlook of the construction industry, there was a seasonal decline in January. The construction progress of the construction industry continues to slow down due to the rain and snow weather and the continuous return of workers near the Spring Festival. The employment index was 49.2%, falling below the critical point. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities was 64.4%, which was significantly higher than that of the previous month, indicating that construction enterprises are optimistic about the production and operation expectations after the festival.
Zhou Maohua said that from the perspective of trend, China has strengthened counter cyclical and cross cyclical policy support, accelerated the formation of special bond funds, and gradually warmed up the real estate market, which is expected to drive the continuous enhancement of relevant construction activities.
Purchasing manager's index is an internationally accepted leading macroeconomic monitoring and early warning index. It usually takes 50% as the critical value of economic strength. Higher than 50% reflects economic expansion and lower than 50% reflects economic contraction.
