"The cargo that could have been unloaded in one day now takes at least 3-4 days because of the epidemic. Such a long wait will cause an additional 17% waste of container ships (transport capacity)." A few days ago, Wang Zemin, general manager of SAIC Anji Logistics Co., Ltd., told the reporter of the daily economic news that it is not easy for marine vehicles under the epidemic.
According to freightos, a logistics platform, the cost of shipping a 40 foot container to the west coast of the United States rose 16 times during the epidemic.
Despite the shortage of trans ocean transport capacity and soaring freight rates, China's automobile exports set a new record of "sailing to sea" in 2021. According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, China's automobile exports in 2021 were about 2.015 million. This is the first time that China's automobile export has exceeded 1 million and jumped to 2 million.
Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automobile Industry Association, said: "export is a great growth point in China's automobile market in 2021. On the one hand, the overseas epidemic has led to a tight supply of products of other brands; on the other hand, the products exported by independent brands have been much higher in grade and further improved in cost performance."
trans ocean transport capacity of "difficult to find first class"
"At present, it is difficult to determine the time cycle of going to sea. The round trip of the South American route is usually 70 days, but once we waited there for 30 days and couldn't reach the shore." Xin Jianmin, deputy general manager of SAIC Anji Logistics Co., Ltd., told reporters that the epidemic has become the main reason affecting cross ocean transportation capacity.
In addition, ensuring the safety of crew members during the epidemic is also an important work of logistics companies. "We have 6 international routes and only 5-6 export seagoing ships. Many crew members can't get off the ship after running at sea for 1-2 years, which also has a certain impact on crew management." Wang Zemin said.
According to Wang Zemin, as a subsidiary of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) specializing in automobile logistics business, the main task of SAIC Anji Logistics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Anji logistics) is to give priority to some of the most important overseas businesses of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , and secondly provide some services for other vehicle manufacturers.
Under the shortage of transportation capacity, booking space from third-party logistics companies has become the choice of many independent brands for export. "The whole year of 2021 is a situation of 'one class is hard to find', and the shipping spaces of logistics companies are very limited, which can only be booked long in advance." A staff member related to automobile export told reporters.
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) (601919. SH), which is mainly engaged in container shipping business, also said in the announcement that shipping is very tight: "In 2021, under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated epidemics, increased demand and limited supply, the global logistics supply chain continues to be challenged and impacted by complex situations such as port congestion, container shortage and inland transportation delay, and the relationship between supply and demand of container transportation continues to be tense."
In addition, with the extension of the sea going cycle, the cost of logistics companies is also further increasing. According to public data, from January to December 2021, the average value of China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 2615.54 points, a year-on-year increase of 165.69%.
Ningbo Shipping Exchange said that from the perspective of shipping demand and capacity supply, it is expected that the overall freight rate will remain high in 2022, but there is a great possibility of year-on-year decline in the second half of 2022. Huachuang securities also expects that the spot freight rate may remain high before the third quarter of 2022, and the effective supply loss may still exceed 10% in 2022
new energy vehicles are the export highlights of independent brands
Despite the difficult export, the independent brand handed over a brilliant report card in 2021.
According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, China's automobile export volume in 2021 was about 2.015 million, a year-on-year increase of 101.1% compared with 995000 in 2020.
From the perspective of branches, the overseas sales volume of Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) in 2021 was about 697000 (including 598000 exported and 99000 produced and sold in overseas bases); Chery holding group's export sales volume in 2021 was about 269000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 36.3%; Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the export sales volume in 2021 is about 123000; Xiaopeng automobile and Weilai automobile, among the new forces of car making, are also arranging overseas business. Among them, Weilai said that it would provide corresponding services to more than 25 countries around the world by 2025. By the end of 2025, the number of exchange power stations in markets outside China would reach about 1000.
"We believe that 2021 will be the first year for Chinese brands to go to sea. We are optimistic that China will become a global automobile manufacturing base. It is expected that the proportion of exports in output will continue to increase, which may exceed 30%." China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) released a research report.
It is worth noting that new energy vehicles have begun to become the highlight of the export of independent brands. According to the data of China Automobile Association, China exported 310000 new energy vehicles in 2021, a year-on-year increase of three times.
"Compared with fuel vehicle technology, China has more technological advantages in the field of new energy vehicles. Many European countries have 'no combustion' policies, which also provides opportunities for independent brands." The above-mentioned staff related to automobile export said. In terms of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , China's leading electric vehicle industry chain, more mature electric vehicle product design and Chinese manufacturing advantages will also promote electric vehicles to the sea.
The 2022 CICC auto white paper predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the global mainstream market will exceed the critical point of 10% in 2022, new energy vehicles will enter the steep stage of the S-shaped growth curve, and the export market is expected to achieve multiple growth
the export growth rate next year is expected to be 20%
Thanks to the bright export achievements of independent brands, improving the existing sea efficiency and future transportation capacity will become the next important work of independent vehicle enterprises and logistics companies.
"We have adjusted the whole sea going organization, such as optimizing the crew replacement and crew on-the-job management, so as to ensure the delivery of products for the overseas market as soon as possible." Xin Jianmin said. According to the reporter, the delivery cycle of Mg brand in the European market is in weeks, while the delivery cycle of some local mainstream brands is in months.
In addition, it has also become a trend to increase the number of ships and improve transport capacity. According to Clarkson, a shipping service company, the number of new orders signed by the shipyard increased significantly in 2021, with a total of 120 million dwt and a contract of 107 billion US dollars. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, by the end of December 2021, the number of orders held by China's shipbuilding industry was 95.839 million dwt, an increase of 34.8% over the number of orders held by the end of 2020, including 36.099 million revised gross tons of seagoing ships and 88.2% of the total export ships.
Recently, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) also announced the formal signing of an agreement with China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) group. CSSC Jiangnan Shipbuilding will "tailor" two LNG dual fuel, low-carbon and environmental friendly ocean going motor transport ships (RO ro ships) with 7600 parking spaces for Anji logistics.
"Shipbuilding industry is a long-term industry, which generally takes three years." The above-mentioned staff related to automobile export believe that the going out of independent brands is also a process.
"In addition, the operation of ocean shipping business and China's shipping operation are completely two concepts. China has the investment of established terminals, and the whole network is very connected. Overseas needs to face the terminal negotiation problems of different countries." Wang Zemin also talked about another challenge of going to sea.
Although there are many difficulties in going to sea, the industry believes that the improvement of overseas sales of independent brands shows that the scale effect of overseas markets is emerging, and independent brands are gradually going out. Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and Secretary General of China Automobile Association, said: "the recovery of global automobile consumption, the transformation and upgrading of independent brands and other factors jointly promote the continuous growth of overseas development of independent brand vehicles. It is expected that the growth rate of China's automobile export will be about 20% in 2022."
