What is the confidence of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) changing from defensive to "all-round attack"?

In recent years, the price increase is the regular operation of many Baijiu enterprises during the peak season. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is also one of them.

According to the statistics of the reporter of the daily economic news, at the beginning of 2022, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568, SZ) has twice announced the suspension of goods and price increase. Coupled with the action at the end of the year, the frequency of goods suspension and price increase has increased significantly, and the scope has been significantly expanded. Some market participants told reporters that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) revisited the goal of "returning to the top three" last year, coupled with the rapid growth of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has an urgent need to improve market share and profit level.

Recently, at the annual summary and commendation conference held by Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Chairman Liu Miao said that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has fully completed the switch from defense to attack and has the strength to win the top three. In 2022, the company will enter a new development stage of comprehensive attack and accelerating breakthrough.

In 2022, the goods have been stopped for two times and the price has increased

To say the combination of "stop goods and increase prices", no liquor enterprise should be more skilled than Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) .

Stop in off-season and peak season; In the off-season and peak season, the news of stopping goods and increasing prices every year is always accompanied by Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . One month after the beginning of 2022, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has twice announced the suspension of goods and price increase.

The latest suspension document is the notice on stopping receiving Guojiao 1573 orders and suspending the supply of Guojiao 1573 goods issued by Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. on January 26. The notice shows that since the quota of Guojiao 1573 has been implemented in the first quarter of 2022, the company has decided to stop receiving orders from Guojiao 1573 and suspend the supply of goods from Guojiao 1573 from now to March 1.

The day before the release of the notice of suspension of goods, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the notice on suspending the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ series products. The document shows that from now on to March 1, the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ series products will be suspended.

Previously, on December 28 last year, Luzhou Dacheng Luzhou flavor Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. also issued a notice on suspending the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) touqu series products.

Stopping goods and raising prices are always accompanied. According to the daily economic news, since December last year, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao 1573 (some regions), Laojiao Tequ, century old cellar wine and touqu series products have successively announced price increases. According to the company's financial report, the company divides Guojiao 1573, Tequ and Jiaoling liquor into medium and high-grade liquor; Touqu and Erqu are classified as other wines. It can be said that this round of price adjustment and goods suspension of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) covers the whole line of mainstream products of its high, medium and low grades.

Take Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) national cellar 1573 as an example. After the price increase in December last year, the planned quota supply price of 52 degree national cellar 1573 classic packaging terminal channel was increased by 70 yuan / bottle, and the unplanned quota supply price was increased to 1080 yuan / bottle. Its unplanned supply price has been the same as the unplanned supply price of 1089 yuan / bottle rumored at the end of last year.

Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) what is the effect of frequent suspension and price increase? For a long time, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao 1573 has adopted the strategy of "following Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ". According to Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) data, at present, the rating of Guojiao 1573 is over 900 yuan, and the rating gap with Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) puwu is reduced from over 100 yuan to about 60 yuan. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the reporter learned from the dealers that the price of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is about 1080 yuan / bottle to 1100 yuan / bottle.

It is worth mentioning that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) is the fastest growing company in recent years in Baijiu listed companies. In 2014, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) gross profit margin was 47.61%, which had jumped to 86.3% in the third quarter of 2021. Last year, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) became the wine enterprise with the highest gross profit margin except Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519, SH).

At the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) annual summary and commendation meeting held on January 26, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Chairman Liu Miao said that last year, the company maintained "how fast it can run on the basis of sound development", and various indicators increased at a high speed, winning the opening victory of the 14th five year plan. He also stressed that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has fully completed the switch from defense to attack and has the strength to win the top three. In 2022, the company will enter a new development stage of comprehensive attack and accelerating breakthrough.

The scale of revenue has been surpassed by Fenjiu

Winning the top three is Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 's long cherished wish, which can also be said to be a goal. However, in the process of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) returning to the top three, the "competition situation" is becoming increasingly anxious.

From the performance of the first three quarters of 2021, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304, SZ) achieved an operating revenue of 21.942 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.01%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 7.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.37%.

Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in the first three quarters, the operating revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.65%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.32%. From the perspective of revenue and profit scale, there is still a certain gap between Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) .

In recent years, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) (600809, SH) has sprung up. In the first three quarters of last year, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) achieved an operating revenue of 17.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.24%; The net profit was 4.879 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.13%. In terms of revenue scale, Fenjiu has exceeded Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . Recently, Fenjiu also released a performance forecast for 2021, saying that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.234 billion yuan to 5.542 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 80%.

With the addition of Fenjiu, the battle for the "top three" is becoming increasingly fierce.

In order to strengthen the development power of the company, the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) equity incentive plan was implemented at the end of last year. According to the plan, from 2021 to 2023, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) will have an annual return on net assets after deduction of non-profit of no less than 22%, the growth rate of non-profit deduction of no less than the 75th percentile of the industry, and the proportion of costs and expenses in revenue of no more than 65%.

A market person said that although Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) had stopped goods and raised prices before, the frequency and scope have increased since 2020, and the intention to serve the equity incentive plan is also obvious.

For Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , it determined the dual brand operation mode of "Guojiao + Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) " early. How to find a new growth point outside Guojiao 1573 is also the problem that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) the company's senior management team dominated by Liu Miao and Lin Feng wants to solve.

In recent years, the gross profit level of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) low-grade products has increased significantly. According to the annual report data of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) from 2016 to 2019, the gross profit margin of low-grade liquor was 21.62%, 34.53%, 42.51% and 48.36% respectively, which was higher than that of high-grade liquor.

From 2020, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) will adjust high, middle and low-grade products to medium and high-grade wines and other wines. Among them, Guojiao 1573, Tequ and Jiaoling liquor are classified as medium and high-grade liquor, while touqu and Erqu are classified as other liquor. The semi annual report of 2021 shows that during the reporting period, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) the gross profit margin of medium and high-grade liquor is 90.60%; The gross profit margin of other wines was 47.41%. Medium and high-grade liquor accounts for 88.21% of the company's total revenue, while other liquor accounts for 10.48% of the company's total revenue.

Compared with Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , in the first half of 2021, the gross profit margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) main brand products was 86.16%, which was lower than that of medium and high-grade liquor in Guojiao. The gross profit margin of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) series liquor products is 58%, higher than that of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) other liquor products. Meanwhile, in the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) liquor products, the revenue of main brand products accounted for 79.6% and that of series liquor accounted for 20.4%. The pull of products with different prices on the company's total revenue is more balanced.

In recent years, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) has continued to make efforts in balancing product strength and launched a new product Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 1952, filling the gap between 1573 and 90 years old.

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