"The Spring Festival 2022, the wholesale market of Baijiu is much lighter than that of last year. There are basically no people. Now the drinks are seriously overloaded and the channels are under great pressure." Recently, Lao Hu, a wine merchant in Yunnan, told the daily economic news.
"Very light." It is a word used by Lao Hu to describe the Baijiu market in Spring Festival of 2022. Like Lao Hu, there are many wine merchants in China who are worried about the sales of the "peak season" of the Spring Festival.
"We estimate that during the Spring Festival in 2022, the sales of drinks in Henan Province are expected to decline by more than 20% compared with last year's Spring Festival." Huang Fu Shang Min, Secretary General of the circulation Committee of Henan wine industry association, told the reporter of the daily economic news that the current problem is that the sales are not booming in the "peak season" of the Spring Festival and the channel inventory is large. It is not ruled out that the channels cannot support after the Spring Festival, and a large number of goods are sold, which may lead to the decline of wine prices.
Before the "peak season" of the Spring Festival, in the middle and late December of 2021, a number of liquor enterprises, including Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiannanchun, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , set off a "price rise tide" one after another. In Huangfu shangmin's view, many wine prices are "irrational", and it is a good thing that wine prices do not fall after the festival.
"dull" Spring Festival Baijiu market
"Baijiu", which is a reporter in the interview with liquor market, when the market heard the most talked about dealers and cigarette and liquor vendor.
Wang Shuang (a pseudonym) runs a cigarette and liquor store near East Second Ring Road in Chengdu, mainly in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Jiannanchun baijiu. In his store, the eighth generation ordinary Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is priced at 1280 yuan / bottle, Guojiao 1573 is priced at 1198 yuan / bottle, and Jiannanchun Dongfanghong is priced at 1180 yuan / bottle. However, according to Wang Shuang, the actual transaction price of the above products can be given a certain discount, "if you take more than one box, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) a bottle of 1120 (yuan) is taken away, Guojiao and Dongfanghong are 1080 yuan / bottle".
"It's actually quite cost-effective to buy now. The manufacturers of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) have increased their prices, but we haven't increased yet. This year, perhaps affected by the epidemic, the spring festival atmosphere is not strong, and there are few people buying wine. We don't want to press the inventory, so we can make some money and sell it." Wang Shuang said.
Subsequently, the reporter called a Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) store and a Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) store respectively. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the staff of the exclusive store said, "it depends on how much you want. If you get more, you can get a preferential price of 1180 yuan per bottle". When the reporter asked how much inventory there was in the store in the name of group buying, the other party said, "you can take as much as you want.". The staff of the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) exclusive store said that Guojiao 1573 can give a price of 1100 yuan. If the quantity is large, the price can be discussed.
Due to the lack of epidemic situation and the large number of people returning home in advance, liquor dealers or tobacco hotels in Sichuan "have a relatively better life".
"We can only say that it's OK. Let's try our best. Compared with the Spring Festival last year, the sales of drinks this year is about a low single digit increase." The person in charge of a Sichuan supermarket chain disclosed to the reporter of the daily economic news.
During the Spring Festival of 2022, the sales of Baijiu can be increased. In some northern provinces that are affected by the epidemic and the consumption capacity is frustrated, Baijiu dealers have a "difficult year".
Li Jing (a pseudonym), a dealer who operates several famous liquor brands in Henan, told the daily economic news that the repeated epidemic has a great impact on the Henan market. "In previous years, the Spring Festival market basically began after December, and the goods have been sold for several rounds. There is no news from this year to new year's day. Banquets, enterprise annual meetings and business banquets have been basically suspended." Li Jing said.
"We estimate that the mobile sales of this year's Spring Festival will decline by about 20% to 30% compared with previous years." Li Jing added that the local price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) puwu is about 960 yuan and the price of 1573 is about 920 yuan. However, fortunately, because there are not many goods in the early stage, the inventory in Li Jing's store is not very much at present. "In this situation, we dare not take the goods rashly. I hope we can digest the existing inventory after the Spring Festival." Li Jing said.
"Some time ago, there was an epidemic in Henan, which was only brought under control recently. A few days ago, we resumed eating in the hall. In addition, Henan suffered floods in 2021 and experienced three waves of epidemic, which also affected the consumption of drinks to a certain extent." Huangfu shangmin told reporters that even some liquor merchants' sales fell by more than 50% during the Spring Festival this year.
"According to our research, previously, Henan, Shaanxi, Tianjin and other markets were greatly affected by the spot outbreak of the epidemic, and the consumption scenes in some regions were damaged, while the liquor sales in Henan, the hardest hit area of the epidemic, had a great impact." A Baijiu analyst told the daily economic news.
During the Spring Festival of 2022, the "cold" of Baijiu sales market even reached the market of tobacco and alcohol recycling. Before the Spring Festival in previous years, there was often a wave of price rise. What about the temperature of the second-hand market this year? A boss who does famous liquor recycling business in Chengdu said that the bulk price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) eighth generation puwu is 860 yuan / bottle, and the unit price of the whole box is 930 yuan / bottle. "No matter how high it is, we dare not give it. The market is not very good this year.".
"Affected by the epidemic, the whole alcohol consumption is indeed relatively weak during the Spring Festival this year, and the atmosphere of high sales at the whole node has not come out." Cai Xuefei, general manager of intellectual curiosity and liquor industry analyst, told reporters that, however, liquor consumption is still in the trend of integration of drinking and storage. Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) Baijiu and Baijiu are actually developing together and making progress, which leads to the consumption characteristics of the Spring Festival, which is becoming more and more gentle.
Baijiu "rising tide" or difficult to continue
In 2022, the Baijiu market Baijiu market appeared to be "dull", but before that, the price of liquor was rising. At the end of 2021 and on the eve of the Spring Festival, manufacturers including Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) have raised prices.
A large number of wineries' intensive price increases before the spring festival do not have solid support at present.
"I don't understand why manufacturers want to raise prices. Don't they know where China's economic situation is in 2021? Now we don't dare to raise prices, and customers won't accept it." A famous liquor dealer in Hebei told the daily economic news.
"The goods sold now are still the goods taken before the price rise, and they are sold according to the price before the price rise. We don't have a lot of money before the festival. We don't dare to raise the price rashly. We want to take advantage of the peak season of the Spring Festival and observe the market situation." However, Wang Shuang also told reporters.
A liquor industry official said that some Baijiu enterprises, the price increase before the festival has certain "irrational" factors. Originally, the consideration of some liquor enterprises was to raise prices before the peak season of the Spring Festival, which would have a "scarcity" impact on the outside world and stimulate dealers to prepare goods. However, affected by the epidemic at the end of the year, many dealers' goods are stuck in their hands, forming a greater inventory pressure.
"Once the Spring Festival sales do not meet expectations, some dealers may sell out due to financial pressure and other factors after the festival, which may put pressure on the wine price." The winemaker said.
Baijiu enterprises set off price increases "irrational", which is not without reason. A person from a listed liquor enterprise told reporters frankly that the price rise of the company was mainly due to the rise of other manufacturers. "If we don't rise, we will be left behind by others. Compared with other manufacturers, we have risen less." The above liquor enterprises also judged that the consumption situation in 2022 may be more optimistic, and the liquor business will be more difficult to do.
"At present, consumers are more and more sensitive to price. Perhaps we should take into account the risk of their own lives, including the macroeconomic environment, and therefore reduce or decrease some of the consumption of non essential and high-grade drinks. This is also a major factor leading to a relatively cold consumption of Baijiu consumption this spring." Baijiu expert, vice chairman of Guizhou Guizhou wine Limited by Share Ltd Wan Xinggui, told the daily economic news reporter.
some liquor enterprises may usher in adjustment in 2022
Huang Fu Shang, it seems that with the Spring Festival season "not prosperous", some provinces and municipalities channel pressure is serious, Baijiu liquor enterprises in 2022 will usher in strong differentiation. "At present, the terminal flow speed has slowed down significantly, Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) consumption is hesitant, but it has not been revealed from the book on the winery side." Huangfu shangmin said that if the dealer's goods cannot be consumed in time, they will certainly be transmitted to the upstream.
In fact, some liquor enterprises with rapid performance in recent years have revealed some problems.
According to the reporter of the daily economic news, in some markets in Shandong and other places, the channel inventory pressure of the national and Taiwan wine industry is large at present, and some local dealers even consider withdrawing or delay in signing new orders.
Previously, Guotai liquor industry has always been a "dark horse" in the industry. The operating revenue of Guotai liquor industry in 2019 was only 1.888 billion yuan. Then in 2020, Guotai liquor industry disclosed that its tax revenue had soared to 4 billion yuan, and the tax revenue further soared to 10 billion yuan in 2021.
"Baijiu Baijiu has been slowing down in Henan, and the growth of Fen flavor liquor is still good. The growth of the scent liquor in 2021 should exceed 15%. This is mainly due to the Baijiu flavor liquor, generally speaking, the price is lower than that of sauce, wine, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , and national cellar 1573." Wan Xinggui said.
In addition to the extrusion of Fen flavor Baijiu liquor, the two or three line sauce and wine enterprises represented by the state Taiwan liquor industry will be squeezed by Moutai. Not long ago, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) officially launched a series of new wine products - Maotai 1935, with an ex factory price of 798 yuan / bottle and a price of 1188 yuan / bottle. It is generally analyzed in the industry that it will have an impact on the second and third tier sauce wine brands with high prices.
