Affected by many negative factors, the market fluctuated lower this week. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5%, the gem index fell 4.14%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.51%. For the post holiday market, industry insiders believe that the stock index fell 3400 points on Friday, the medium and short-term average turned down, and investors should still focus on defense.
The stock index fell nearly 8% in January
Affected by external stock market shocks, geopolitical and other uncertain factors, the market fluctuated downward this week. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3500 and 3400 points one after another. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57% in a week and 7.65% in January.
The recent weakness of US stocks has also dragged down the peripheral financial markets. As of Thursday's close, the Dow fell nearly 6% in January and the NASDAQ fell more than 14%. The Fed has hinted that it will raise interest rates for the first time since 2018 in March, and according to its usual caution when it began to cancel monetary stimulus, the rate increase may be 25 basis points. However, if Powell believes that the Fed is far behind the curve and needs to resist the continuous rise of prices in order to make up his mind to fight inflation, he may also take bolder action. Investors are now expected to raise interest rates by about 30 basis points from March 15 to 16, reflecting a one-fifth probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points.
In China, the agency believes that manufacturing enterprises have entered the off-season of production, and the PMI is expected to decline slightly to 50.1% in January. The outlook of the service industry may weaken, the prosperity of the construction industry will pick up slightly, and the PMI of non manufacturing industry will drop to about 52.4%. The policy is based on the "good start" of banks at the beginning of the year. It is expected that the new credit volume in January will reach 3.7 trillion yuan. With the significant increase of credit, the momentum of local bond issuance and stock market IPO is good. It is expected that the new scale of social finance may reach 5.6 trillion yuan, and the growth rate may increase to 10.4%. Supported by the expansion of new credit and bond financing, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in January may significantly rebound to about 9.5%.
theme stocks cooled rapidly
This week, the differentiation of theme stocks with digital economy, epidemic prevention and control, yuanuniverse and secondary new shares as the main line increased, and many popular varieties in the early stage were significantly adjusted.
Wind statistics show that 15 stocks fell by more than 30% this week, including Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) , xidiwei-u, Inly Media Co.Ltd(603598) , Shenzhen Asia Link Technology Development Co.Ltd(002316) , Jishi Media Co.Ltd(601929) , Hubei Radio & Television Information Network Co.Ltd(000665) , Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co.Ltd(300741) , Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) , Chengda pharmaceutical, temus, C Yidong, Zhejiang Yatai Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002370) , Harson Trading (China) Co.Ltd(603958) , Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co.Ltd(000530) . Only three of them increased by more than 30% in the week, namely Kingland Technology Co.Ltd(000711) , Suna Co.Ltd(002417) , Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) .
In terms of individual stocks, Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) fell sharply after hitting a new high of 26.03 yuan / share this week, down 37.57% in one week, and fell the limit for four consecutive days from Tuesday to Friday. On the evening of January 19, the company announced that it planned to take its 100% equity of Wanli power supply (estimated value of 680 million yuan) as the set out assets and replace the 48.95% equity of Teri battery (estimated value of 1.15 billion yuan) jointly held with the counterparty, that is, the equivalent part of the set in assets. Meanwhile, Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) plans to raise matching funds of no more than 150 million yuan through non-public offering of shares to no more than 35 specific investors. The raised matching funds will increase the capital of Teri battery for the projects under construction of Teri battery. The capital increase price will be determined according to the final transaction price of Teri battery determined in this transaction. After the capital increase is completed, the shareholding proportion of Listed Companies in Teri battery will not be less than 51%. After the completion of this transaction, the existing lead-acid battery business of the listed company will be realized, and the main business will be changed to the R & D, production and sales of lithium iron phosphate products, the cathode material of lithium batteries. The products are mainly used in the field of power batteries and energy storage batteries of new energy vehicles.
risk should still be controlled in the short term
For the post holiday market, industry insiders believe that taking into account the short divergence of the medium and short-term average of the market, the operation should still focus on defense.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Mr. Xue, senior manager of securities, told the reporter of Dazhong securities news that the market broke down in January. After the weakening of subject stocks, heavyweights weakened sharply on Friday, and the market may continue the shock bottom trend after the festival. On the one hand, investors can pay attention to China's macro changes during the Spring Festival; On the other hand, it can continuously track the trend of peripheral financial markets. In terms of operation, investors should still strengthen their defense after the festival.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) analyst Zhang Qiyao believes that since the beginning of the year, with the rising concern of the Federal Reserve about raising interest rates or even shrinking the table and the sharp rise of US bond interest rates, US stocks, especially US technology stocks and overvalued white horses have fallen sharply, which once triggered concerns in the Chinese market and further deepened the adjustment pressure on high valuation sectors such as A-share new energy and semiconductors. After the recent sharp decline, the trading volume ratio of S & P 500 put options to call options has dropped significantly, indicating that the adjustment of US stocks may be coming to an end, and the subsequent impact on China's A-share market will gradually decrease.
