Recently, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rise. On January 28, 2205 iron ore futures contract closed at 829 yuan / ton, with a closing increase of 7.59%. In contrast, scrap prices, which are at historic highs, have softened recently.
The reporter of China Securities News learned from in-depth investigation that recently, the price of scrap steel has continued to decline. The main and many electric furnace plants have chosen to shut down due to the historical high price of scrap steel, which is related to the sharp reduction of production. In contrast, the recent production of blast furnace plants with iron ore as raw materials has continued to rise.
shutdown of scrap electric furnace plant
Xia Shengyan, an analyst of Fubao information scrap industry, said in an interview with reporters, "The main raw material for steelmaking in electric furnace plants is scrap steel. Compared with long process blast furnace plants, the steelmaking process of electric furnace is relatively simple, and the starting and stopping cost of electric furnace is low, so the production flexibility is relatively high. Therefore, these short process electric furnace steel plants can stop production as long as they find that the downstream demand is insufficient and the production is unprofitable."
It is understood that, in addition to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the scrap price is at a historical high, resulting in the loss of the electric furnace steel plant with scrap as the raw material, which is also the main reason for the shutdown of the electric furnace plant in the near future.
In contrast, the blast furnace steel plant with iron ore as raw material is limited by the steelmaking process and can not really realize "shutdown". At the same time, with the completion of the task of reducing production in various regions, the resumption of production of iron and steel enterprises has increased, and the output of iron and steel has rebounded significantly month on month. In addition, compared with the electric steel plant, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace plant is still positive, and the commencement of production is still profitable.
"Once the blast furnace steel works cease fire, the start-up cost may be tens of millions. Therefore, even if the production is limited in some areas, in order to protect the whole set of equipment and prevent redox reaction on the furnace wall, it is necessary to ignite the furnace and wait for re production." A steel plant disclosed to the reporter of China Securities Journal.
\u3000\u3000 "Blast furnace plants produce iron and steel with iron ore, coking coal and coke as the main raw materials. Compared with electric furnaces, the steelmaking process of such steel plants is obviously much more complex and involves more process links. Their production is often continuous, and the start-up and shutdown cost of blast furnaces is significantly higher than that of electric furnaces. Therefore, during the Spring Festival, these blast furnaces take the initiative in addition to environmental protection, production restriction or maintenance Not many people choose to stop production during holidays. " Xia Shengyan told the China Securities Journal.
raw material prices are high
"For scrap steel, even if the price has fallen recently, it is still more than 3000 yuan / ton, still at the highest level in the history of the same period in recent years." Many insiders told the China Securities Journal, "for scrap buyers, the overall willingness to hoard goods is relatively low."
Lange steel network data show that on January 28, the forward spot reference price of imported ore increased by an average of US $0.59/ton. 61.5 the quotation of Australian flour is 137.5 US dollars / ton. In January, coke prices completed three rounds of increase, with a cumulative increase of 500 yuan / ton. The average cost excluding tax of ordinary carbon billets produced from raw fuels purchased in January increased by 337 yuan or 10.2% compared with the same period last month.
Wang Guoqing of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center believes that since 2022, the price of iron ore and coke as raw materials has fluctuated upward, and the cost support has been significantly strengthened. Institutions generally expect the price of finished steel to rise after the Spring Festival.
On the evening of January 28, the official wechat of the national development and Reform Commission said that recently, the market price of iron ore rose sharply, and there were many abnormal fluctuations during the period. According to the analysis of relevant parties, at present, the supply and demand of iron ore market is generally stable, China's inventory is at a high level for many years, and the price has risen too fast recently, which is hyped.
The national development and Reform Commission is highly concerned about the changes in the market price of iron ore. It will conduct in-depth investigation with relevant departments, strengthen supervision, severely crack down on illegal acts such as spreading false information, bid up prices and malicious speculation, and study and further take effective measures to effectively ensure the stable operation of the market price of iron ore.
According to the Research Report of Baocheng futures, the fundamentals of the mining market continue to improve. The resumption of production of steel mills and the replenishment of warehouses before the Spring Festival promote the continuous improvement of ore demand. The daily average hot metal output of sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore continue to rise month on month, reaching a new high since October 2021. The increment of terminal consumption exceeds expectations. At the same time, the port dredging volume and spot transactions also remain high, The positive drive of replenishment still exists, and the strong demand supports the strong operation of ore prices. At the same time, China's arrival and shipment have witnessed a significant decline, but it is worth noting that the shipment of non Australian and Pakistani mines has rebounded recently, and China's mines are also resuming production against the season. In the long term, the favorable ore supply is not strong.
For the steel market after the Spring Festival, Wang Guoqing of Lange Steel Research Center believes that from the perspective of market expectation, the current steady growth policy continues to increase, and the market is optimistic about the release of infrastructure investment demand in spring. It is expected that China's steel market will show a pattern of shock and slight rise in February.
