Due to the general decline of individual stocks in the pre holiday market correction, the profit-making effect fell sharply, and the market confidence was under pressure. Although many institutional investors expect the market to warm up after the festival, considering the current global financial market environment, they all believe that it is still difficult to reverse the market.
therefore, behind the continuous shock pattern of the market, the structural market is still the main tone, and grasping the “Sniper War” of local hot sectors and individual stocks has become the mainstream and viewpoint.
From the post holiday opportunity strategy recently released by institutional investors, the safety margin of undervalued blue chip and the rebound after the correction of core track sector deserve attention. Building materials, new energy photovoltaic and Aerospace Military Industry sectors benefiting from infrastructure construction are generally optimistic.
building materials: capital construction ushers in the peak season
With the continuous warming of steady growth expectations, the uncertainty of the building materials industry is highlighted. Li Yang, an analyst at Minsheng securities, pointed out that the five-year LPR has been lowered for the first time since April 2020, with obvious positive signals. At present, real estate sales are in the doldrums and new land acquisition projects are sluggish, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence. From September 2021, the real estate policy has changed from “small launch and stable expectation” to “high-frequency launch and heavy landing”. The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. It is estimated that the marginal improvement of front-end sales, construction and other data is expected to be seen in the next quarter.
On the whole, the real estate chain can be more optimistic, and the valuation directly reflects the expectation, which will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At the current time point, the second-line leaders can be more optimistic, the performance repair flexibility is greater, and the first-line leaders are more sustainable.
In terms of sub areas, the cement sector is generally recommended. Li Huafeng, an analyst at Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) , pointed out that the executive meeting of the State Council deployed to accelerate the promotion of major projects identified in the outline of the 14th five year plan and special plans, and expand effective investment. From the demand side, the reaffirmation of accelerated infrastructure investment and the government’s active promotion of the progress of special bond issuance can partially offset the rapid decline in real estate demand. From the supply side, the continuous implementation of the dual carbon policy is conducive to accelerating industrial upgrading and maintaining a reasonable range of production capacity and interest rate. It is recommended to pay attention to Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) .
In terms of consumption of building materials, the gradual stabilization of house prices in large and medium-sized cities is conducive to the front-end housing sales and further provides strong support for the demand of the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) .
Selection of potential stocks
\u3000\u3000 Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) (600585)
\u3000\u3000 Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) (600801)
\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (002372)
\u3000\u3000 Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) (002043)
photovoltaic: demand is expected to exceed expectations
The National Energy Administration announced the installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2021. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic in the whole year was about 53gw, a year-on-year increase of 9.96%, approaching the historical installed capacity in 2017. The cumulative installed capacity is 306 million kilowatts, ranking first in the world.
Among them, China’s distributed installed capacity was 29.20gw, a year-on-year increase of 88.39%, accounting for 55%. With the implementation of the whole county pilot of roof photovoltaic in China, the continuous implementation of the dual control policy of energy consumption and the return of system costs to the downward channel, it is expected that the installed demand of distributed photovoltaic in China will be strong and maintain a high growth trend in 2022.
Tang junnan, an analyst at Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , pointed out that the risk appetite of the short-term secondary market has decreased, and there are signs of rebound after the continuous decline of the photovoltaic sector. Considering the industrial conditions, valuation and market sentiment, we still need to be cautious in the short term. In the medium term, it is suggested to focus on alleviating the shortage of raw material supply and increasing the demand for photovoltaic installation, and the layout of beneficiary fields, including thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and leading enterprises in the field of inverter.
Looking forward to the whole year, with the downward price of the industrial chain, the demand for photovoltaic in 2022 is easy to exceed expectations. Driven by the trend of carbon neutralization and the economy of the industrial chain, it has high growth potential in the medium and long term.
Fu Honghao, an analyst at Huaxin securities, suggested that investors give priority to the pattern of segments and the implementation of new technologies. Firstly, glass and diamond wire have significant cost advantages, focusing on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Henan Hengxing Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002132) ; Secondly, there are significant product differences between inverter soft magnetic particle core and high-purity quartz sand. Pay attention to Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) ; Finally, there are profitable repair opportunities for battery components, adhesive films and tracking brackets. Pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) .
Selection of potential stocks
\u3000\u3000 Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865)
\u3000\u3000 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) (300811)
\u3000\u3000 Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012)
\u3000\u3000 Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459)
national defense industry: adjust the industry to a good trend
Since the beginning of 2022, the national defense and military industry sector has fallen sharply, significantly outperforming the market. Lu Liting, an analyst at Dongguan securities, pointed out that the sector may fluctuate greatly in the short term, but it does not change the prosperity of the industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is suggested to pay attention to the layout opportunities after substantial adjustment of the industry and wait for the dawn.
In the long run, the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their own military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainties. As a key counter cyclical sector, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is improving with high certainty .
At present, the quantile of the valuation of the defense and military industry sector is 40.7%, and the valuation level has retreated to a safer position. Li Liang, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, pointed out that in the medium term, as the second year of the 14th five year plan for equipment procurement, bidding is expected to be intensively implemented in 2022. With the continuous release of industrial capacity and downstream demand, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise. With the acceleration of state-owned enterprise reform in 2022, the valuation system of military central enterprises may be reshaped, and the valuation improvement is expected.
Bao Xuebo, an analyst at Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said that looking forward to 2022, the high boom in some segments of military industry will continue, and the superposition of scale effects and improvement of governance are expected to provide performance flexibility. It is suggested to focus on aerospace, national defense informatization and other fields. Focus on Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Aerospace Ch Uav Co.Ltd(002389) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) in the aerospace industry chain; In terms of national defense informatization, it is suggested to pay attention to Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Glarun Technology Co.Ltd(600562) .
Selection of potential stocks
\u3000\u3000 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) (600893)
\u3000\u3000 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) (600760)
\u3000\u3000 Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) (688066)
\u3000\u3000 Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) (002414)
