There are many reasons for the continuous decline of A-Shares in January, including the influence of peripheral markets and the role of sentiment.
In addition, according to relevant regulations, if it is predicted that there may be a loss in the operation of the whole year, or there is a significant change compared with the previous year (generally more than 50% increase or decrease in advance), the performance forecast must be issued before January 31. If the good news was more than the bad news earlier, a large number of performance explosive companies came in droves in the last few days of January.
the first is those that touch financial indicators and are on the verge of delisting.
According to the new delisting regulations, “if the net profit before / after deduction is negative and the revenue is less than 100 million yuan, it will be st and the listing will be terminated for two consecutive years; if the delisting risk warning stock is issued with a non-standard audit report, it will touch the criteria for terminating the listing.”
As of Friday, 18 listed companies have predicted that the annual revenue in 2021 is less than 100 million yuan, of which about half of the net profit before / after deduction is negative, which is likely to be terminated from listing.
followed by huge losses beyond expectations.
For example, Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) , the company also made a profit of 444 million yuan in the first three quarters, and suddenly broke out the annual pre loss of 4.92-5.12 billion yuan. While Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) is an ocean transportation enterprise, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) made a profit of 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 799%. Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.Ltd(600026) explained that “the provision for asset impairment was made for 94 ships, totaling about RMB 4.96 billion”.
Even if the impairment of assets is accrued, wasn’t ocean transportation very popular last year? After the release of the notice, the inquiry letter of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was welcomed immediately. The company released an 11 page reply, and the reason is still unconvincing.
As another example, Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) , it also made a profit of 454 million yuan in 2020, but it actually suffered a huge loss of 7.1-8.7 billion yuan in 2021, and its net assets in the first three quarters were 405 million yuan. According to the degree of huge loss, the net assets are likely to be negative or touch delisting.
Another example is * Zhongxing Tianheng Energy Technology (Beijing)Co.Ltd(600856) . The company only lost 310 million yuan in the first three quarters, but it lost 5.4-7.2 billion yuan in advance in the whole year. It is estimated that the net assets at the end of the year will be – 5.9 billion yuan to – 7.8 billion yuan. The company admitted that “according to article 9.3.11 of the listing rules, the listing of the company’s shares may be terminated after the disclosure of the 2021 annual report”. This kind of thunder makes tens of thousands of shareholders of the company want to cry without tears.
in addition, there are a considerable number of enterprises whose names increase, decrease or lose.
Yes, about 2 / 3 of the 1700 annual report performance forecasts are expected to be happy, but a little analysis shows that a considerable part of them are not “happy”. especially steel, coal, nonferrous metals and other industries .
For example, Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , the annual profit was 7.04 billion yuan, an increase of 256% over the previous year, but its profit in the first three quarters reached 7.489 billion yuan, that is, it was actually a loss in the fourth quarter. There are also Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Bengang Steel Plates Co.Ltd(000761) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) and so on. In particular Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , it is said that the annual profit is 1.038-1.321 billion yuan, an increase of 200-281%. However, the profit in the first three quarters has been 2.23 billion yuan. As soon as the notice comes out, “good news” has become a tragedy, and the share price fell by the limit on the same day.
The China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) of the coal industry made a profit of 11.77-14.38 billion yuan, an increase of 100-140%, but its profit in the first three quarters was 11.856 billion yuan. The Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) of non-ferrous metals made a profit of 4.9-5.3 billion yuan, an increase of 561-615%, and the same profit of 5.307 billion yuan in the first three quarters. There are Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) and so on.
Some of the above stocks are small cap stocks. In view of the fact that small cap stocks have risen the best and most popular since last year, the continuous thunder will naturally affect their popularity.
According to rough statistics, about 20% of the 1700 performance forecasts, including the first loss, advance loss or loss reduction, have suffered losses for three or four consecutive years, with a total of more than 300 listed companies. another part is large cap stocks or industry leaders. Of course, the index has the greatest impact on their increase in name and decrease in real value.
Then again, there are still many companies whose performance is actually growing. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the annual profit is expected to be 14-16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150-195%, while its profit in the first three quarters is 7.75 billion yuan, that is, the fourth quarter is equivalent to half of the whole year! Similar good companies can find a batch.
after the storm, there is a rainbow, and A-Shares will not always be a cloudy day. With the black swan flying by at the end of January, companies with performance support and reasonable valuation will still perform.
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