In 2021, the coal market was in short supply, the coal price came out of a historical high, and the performance and share prices of many coal enterprises rose together.
As of January 28, according to the incomplete statistics of surging journalists, 18 of the 23 coal enterprises in the coal mining industry have released the performance forecast for 2021, of which 17 have a year-on-year increase in net profit, 12 have an increase of more than 100%, and the net profit of Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) ( Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , 601101) is expected to increase by nearly 4000%.
During the forecast period, the net profits of China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ( China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , 601088), Yankuang Energy Group Co., Ltd. (Yankuang energy, 600188) and China China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) Co., Ltd. ( China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , 601898) exceeded 10 billion yuan.
Specifically, the net profit of coal leader China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) is expected to be about 50.3 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and the non net profit attributable to the shareholders of the company is about 50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%.
Yankuang energy expects a net profit of 16 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 124.67%.
China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 11.77 billion yuan - 14.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99.4% - 143.6%.
Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) ( Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , 601699) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be about 6.842 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 251.59%.
Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ( Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , 601001) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 4.868 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 455.84%.
Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) ( Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , 600546) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 4.5-5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 444.14% - 504.59%.
Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) ( Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) , 600123) it is estimated that the net profit in 2021 will be 2.15 billion yuan - 2.45 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 473.33% - 553.33%.
For the pre increase in performance, many companies said that they were boosted by the rise in coal market prices in 2021. Affected by the tightening of supply and demand, the coal price has continued to rise since the second quarter of 2021, and the quotation of 5500 kcal of underground coal in the port around the Bohai Sea has exceeded 2500 yuan / ton. China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) ( China Coal Xinji Energy Co.Ltd(601918) , 601918) indicates that the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal in 2021 is 622.97 yuan / ton, up 192.11 yuan / ton year-on-year.
At the same time, due to the demand of national energy supply guarantee, many coal enterprises have fully opened their horsepower since October 2021.
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) said that in 2021, the output of commercial coal was 307 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and the sales volume of coal was 482 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) also said that during the forecast period, the company will spare no effort to increase production and sales to ensure energy supply.
In addition, the only enterprise with pre reduced performance - Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) ( Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) , 600508) is expected to have a net profit of 300 million yuan to 400 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 40% - 55%. Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) said that the main reason was that the company identified signs of impairment in Kongzhuang Coal Mine in the fourth quarter of 2021 and planned to withdraw impairment provision of about 500 million yuan to 600 million yuan.
While the performance of coal enterprises is improving, coal stocks have soared for many times. In 2021, the annual share price of Yankuang energy increased by 159.43%, and that of Shanxi Foryou Corporation(002906) Xinneng Co., Ltd. ( Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , 600348) increased by 121.08%.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) the research report believes that under the background of carbon neutrality, energy transformation is the long-term main line, and the coal industry will face a pattern of tightening supply, changing demand and stabilizing price.
On the supply side, China's future capacity growth is limited, the capital expenditure of international coal enterprises continues to be low, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in imports. The policy side tends to improve the scale and efficiency of mines and control coal production; On the demand side, in the process of energy structure transformation, the dependence on thermal power is still high, and the demand growth rate is optimistic. The growth rate from 2022 to 2023 is expected to be maintained at about 3%; It is estimated that the market price center of thermal coal will be 700-900 yuan / ton in 2022.
