When the year of the ox investment ends, how can the year of the tiger fight again?
"It's finally closed" and "the rise and fall are all things for next year"! For many people, the first month of 2022 is frustrating. As of January 28, the Shanghai index fell 7.65% this month, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29%, and the gem index fell 12.45%. Since the beginning of the year, the share prices of about 4100 companies have fallen, and the net value of more than 2000 funds (calculated separately) has fallen by more than 10%.
In the face of the sharp correction of the market, public funds launched a wave of self purchase, demonstrating their confidence in the future market. According to the statistics of Chinese reporters of securities companies, in the past three days, 25 public offerings and asset management of securities companies have initiated self purchase, with an amount of 1.58 billion. At the same time, Liu Gesong, Zhang Kun and other "top stream" have also liberalized purchase restrictions.
Behind these positive signals, what is the analysis of the future market of public funds?
public offering and self purchase of nearly 1.6 billion
On January 28, a number of public funds joined the "self purchase army". Among them, Boshi Fund announced that it plans to invest no less than 80 million yuan to purchase its own funds, and Qianhai open source fund and Yinhua Fund plan to invest 50 million yuan.
In addition, Dongfanghong asset management also announced that it would purchase its partial stock fund with its own capital of 50 million yuan, becoming the first in asset management of securities companies. According to the statistics of Chinese reporters of securities companies, up to now, 24 public offerings and one asset management of securities companies have initiated self purchase in three days, with an amount of 1.58 billion.
Market participants generally believe that self purchase funds are full trust in investment and research ability and long-term optimistic about the performance of the capital market.
"Many fund companies purchase their own funds, releasing a positive signal that these fund companies are optimistic about the fund and the future market, so they are willing to apply for real gold and silver." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said, "this also shows that the current short-term sharp decline in the market has gradually made some good stocks fall out of value, which plays a certain role in stabilizing market confidence and improving holders' confidence in the fund."
"top flow" release purchase restrictions
Not only fund companies have purchased by themselves, but also many star fund managers have also liberalized the purchase restriction to "open the door to welcome customers". Zhang Kun, Liu Gesong and other "top stream" are listed.
On January 28, GF Fund announced that in order to meet the investment needs of investors, it decided to resume the large purchase (including conversion and transfer in, fixed and non fixed investment) business of GF Small Cap Growth managed by Liu Gesong, GF Multi Strategy managed by Lin Yingrui, GF Jufu and GF quantitative multi factor four products managed by Chen Yuting from February 7, 2022.
Earlier, Zhang Kun and Zhu Shaoxing also liberalized the purchase restrictions.
On January 27, e fund announced that the company decided to adjust the limit of large amount subscription and large amount conversion of e fund blue chip selection managed by Zhang Kun in all sales institutions from February 7, and adjust the cumulative subscription amount of a single fund account from no more than 2000 yuan to 10000 yuan.
It is worth noting that the limit after e fund blue chip selection is increased is five times that before. Specifically, on December 17, 2020, e fund adjusted the subscription amount of single day and single account selected by e fund blue chip to 1 million, reduced to 100000 on January 8, 2021, and again reduced to 5000 yuan on January 28. On February 18, 2021, e fund blue chip selection further adjusted the original subscription ceiling of 5000 yuan to 2000 yuan.
At the same time, the high-quality selection of e-fund managed by Zhang Kun (formerly known as "e-fund medium and small cap") will also be open to daily subscription and regular fixed investment business from February 7, with a subscription limit of 10000 yuan. Previously, its status was to suspend subscription.
Fuguo Tianhui managed by Zhu Shaoxing also issued an announcement on January 27 to increase the limit on the amount of large subscription, fixed investment and conversion transfer in business, and the limit on the daily accumulated 10000 yuan of a single fund account has been adjusted to 20000 yuan since January 28.
The GF value leader managed by Lin Yingrui will also cancel the limit that the total subscription amount of a single fund account of the original investor on a single day shall not exceed 10000 yuan from February 7, so as to resume the normal subscription business.
what fell out was opportunity?
Since the beginning of 2022, the continuous decline of the market has made many investors turn pale when talking about stocks. As of January 28, the Shanghai index fell 7.65% this month, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29%, and the gem index fell 12.45%. Since the beginning of the year, the share prices of about 4100 companies have fallen, and the net value of more than 2000 funds (calculated separately) has fallen by more than 10%.
so, can the self purchase of fund companies restore market confidence?
Nanfang fund resumed the self purchase data of public funds, saying that the self purchase behavior of public funds is mostly concentrated in the stage of market downturn or sharp decline (the position in the red circle in the figure).
Self purchase behavior of public funds and A-share performance
Source: China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , as of July 31, 2021
If the partial stock hybrid fund index is held from these time nodes, the subsequent medium and long-term returns are relatively considerable, and the annualized returns are generally more than 15%, or even as high as 72.61%.
As of January 27, 2021, the past performance of the index does not predict the future, so investment should be cautious
Wu Xinrong, chief investment officer of e fund equity, said that after the beginning of the year, there have been certain adjustments in the A-share market for three main reasons. First, since the central economic work conference put forward the goal of stable growth, the policies and measures of various ministries, commissions and local governments are still brewing and being introduced. It takes time for the transmission from policies to the economy, and there are certain uncertainties in market expectations; Second, the sharp turn of the Fed's monetary policy, especially the recent hawkish statements, triggered the adjustment of the global equity market; Third, local geopolitical instability factors have been fermented.
"These concerns in the current market are not worrying." Wu Xinrong stressed. In the medium and long term, Wu Xinrong expressed full confidence in A-Shares and believed that the upward trend of bottom lifting shock in the medium and long term of the market remained unchanged. First of all, the policy will be strengthened and the macro stability will be improved; Secondly, the demand for the allocation of residents' assets to the equity market is expected to continue to increase; Third, under the capital market reform measures marked by the registration system, the quality of listed companies has been continuously optimized, and the index has a bull base; Finally, the transformation and upgrading of economic structure is expected to accelerate, and a large number of high-quality enterprises are expected to emerge and grow in various industries.
Looking forward to the future, Haifutong Fund said that China has the largest domestic demand market in the world. Under the dual trend of high-end manufacturing upgrading and consumption upgrading, the macroeconomic momentum is still strong. So far, China has produced global market leading enterprises in some fields. I believe this trend will become more obvious in the future, and a number of listed companies with global leading standards will emerge. Although there are many factors affecting the short-term market, the core factor that really affects the market is China's economic fundamentals itself in the long-term dimension. Moreover, with the outbreak of residents' demand for wealth management, the full net worth of asset management products, and the continuous increase of overseas funds in Chinese assets, the market demand for high-quality assets is still urgent, and the medium and long-term investment value of A-Shares is constantly highlighting.
"There is a high probability that there will be a rebound after the festival". The fund manager of a medium-sized fund company in Shenzhen was full of confidence in an interview with a Chinese reporter from a securities firm. For the investment layout of the whole year, he said that 2022 may be relatively balanced in style, and attention should be paid to moderate balance in configuration.
