On January 28, a shares“ И” (Cyrillic alphabet) type trend ends in January 2022. Although the first month of this year had a bad start, from the 30-year historical data, the probability of the Shanghai index rising in February was 70%, and the average increase in that month was 2.92%, ranking third in 12 months.
Insiders said that after the recent gradual release of market risks, February will usher in a safe window period before the centralized disclosure of performance reports. Considering the time of credit supply, A-Shares are expected to rebound in February. Some securities companies even believe that February will be the best stage of the market in the first half of the year.
high probability of “red February”
In January 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.65%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%. However, from the historical data, most of the Shanghai Composite Index in February was “red”.
According to the statistics of Shanghai stock index from 1992 to 2021, the reporter of China Securities Journal found that February is the month with the highest rising probability in 12 months. In the 30 years of statistics, the Shanghai index rose in February for 21 years, with a probability of 70%. In addition, the average increase in February was 2.92%, ranking third in 12 months, second only to may (6.63%) and April (4.37%).
This is also supported by the data of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) (601878) strategy analyst Wang Yang.
or the best stage in the first half of the year
The A-share market started unexpectedly in 2022, and the three indexes fell into adjustment. After the Spring Festival, A-Shares will start trading in February. Will the market rebound at that time?
In addition to the above resumption data indicating a high probability of rise in February, Wang Yang said that the risk of early Baotuan varieties has been released, and some sectors even oversold in the short term. It is expected that the market may usher in a phased rebound in February, and small cap stocks are expected to dominate.
From the perspective of time window, fan Jituo, a strategic analyst at Cinda securities, said that from the progress of annual report disclosure over the years, the time is mostly concentrated from March to April, and the time window in February is relatively safe.
Fan Jituo said that although many investors have been discussing spring agitation and cross year market since the end of last year, historically, the agitation time with the highest real certainty is often only February. Therefore, there may be a technical rebound in A-Shares in February, which may be the best stage in the first half of the year.
From the perspective of historical law, Li zhuorei, an analyst at Galaxy Securities, said that the market will generally experience a period of decline before the spring market opens, and the decline range of the early market determines the rebound strength of the spring market to a certain extent. In addition, the optimistic policy is the sufficient condition for the opening of the market in spring. The release of liquidity by the central bank and the recovery of credit data over the years are the action force in the market in spring, and at present, it is in the stage of steady growth policy. At present, some peripheral market risks have been released, and the valuation of A-Shares has also fallen to a lower position. In the future, after the investor sentiment stabilizes and the risks of some track stocks are gradually released, the spring market driven by steady growth may gradually open.
In terms of industry allocation, Galaxy Securities suggests paying attention to two main lines: one is the beneficial themes of important meetings, such as digital economy and new energy; Second, the sectors benefiting from the steady growth policy, such as building materials, machinery, etc. Wanlian securities suggests paying attention to consumption, infrastructure sector and undervalued financial sector.
