The year of xinchou in the A-share market has come to an end. Compared with the Gregorian calendar in 2021, the market performance of the lunar year of the ox is slightly inferior, mainly due to the failure to include the rising market in the beginning of 2021 and the decline in the beginning of 2022.
Looking back, the structural differentiation pattern of A-Shares in the year of the ox is very significant, which is reflected in indexes, sectors and individual stocks. Market analysts believe that this may be related to the capital factors of the slowdown of public offering, the expansion of private placement scale and the shift of foreign investment style.
Looking forward to the lunar year of the tiger, institutions generally hold a positive view on the A-share market. Especially after the rapid retreat in 2022, many institutions believe that the Spring Festival will be the starting point of the year of the tiger market.
medium and small cap stock index is stronger than the large cap index
From the performance of major market scale indexes, in the year of the ox (from February 18, 2021 to January 28, 2022), the Shanghai index fell by 8.03%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index fell by 16.50% and 14.79% respectively.
In addition, the Shanghai 50 index fell sharply by 24% in the year of the ox, indicating the overall downturn of blue chips in the market; The China Securities 500 index rose slightly by less than 1% in the year of the ox, reflecting the fair performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks.
Performance of major A-share indexes in the year of the ox
Market style. Taking CITIC style index as an example, the stable style index (airport, expressway, power, railway transportation, port, etc.) rose 17.16% in the year of the ox. Cycle style and growth style increased by 3.66% and 0.45% respectively; Financial style fell by 11.34% and consumption style fell by 23.12%.
Performance of CITIC style index in the year of the ox
To sum up, the performance of small and medium-sized market capitalization style in the past year is significantly stronger than that of large market blue chip, which is inseparable from the current pattern of the rise of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, and the opening of the Beijing stock exchange has further strengthened this trend.
Ren Lang, chief researcher of the small and medium cap team of open source securities, said that from the pilot registration system of the science and innovation board, and then gradually extended to the gem and the Beijing stock exchange, IPO ushered in continuous expansion, especially innovative small and medium-sized enterprises ushered in the "golden age" of direct financing.
"Driven by policy support and direct financing, with the help of a new generation of technological revolution, the endogenous growth momentum of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises has been strengthened. The performance contribution of extension M & A has changed from negative to positive, and the performance of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises has ushered in an upward turning point. At present, the valuation of small and medium-sized companies with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan is at a historical low, and the PE (TTM) of companies with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan The median has been significantly lower than companies with a market value of more than 20 billion. Looking forward to 2022, under the background of low valuation, policy support and upward performance, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises. " Ren Lang said.
the main line of "carbon neutralization" runs through the whole year
In terms of the ranking of the rise and fall of the industry in the whole year, the coal, environmental protection, new energy and other industry sectors related to the main line of "carbon neutrality" in the year of the ox led significantly, while the traditional blue chip sectors such as food and beverage and biomedicine pulled back at a high level.
Specifically, divided by Shenwan industry, the coal industry rose 43% in the year of the ox as a whole, ranking first in the first-class industry, public utilities and iron and steel industries increased by more than 20%, and environmental protection, building decoration, power equipment and non-ferrous metal industries increased by more than 10%.
13 primary industries rose in the year of the ox
On the other hand, the social service industry (education, tourism, etc.) was affected by the epidemic and policies, and the overall performance of the year of the ox fell by 34%. The beauty care industry is affected by high valuation factors, and the annual decline of the ox is also more than 30%. The pharmaceutical and biological, food and beverage and household appliances industries all fell by more than 25%.
Top 10 industries in the year of the ox
Looking forward to the year of the tiger, the agency believes that the differentiation trend among industries is expected to converge, and there are investment opportunities in the high boom track and the "dilemma reversal" sector.
Xu Chi, a strategic analyst at Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) said that under the global energy revolution, the prosperity of the "double carbon" sector may continue in the next three years, which is the core main line with high certainty and obvious upward industrial trend; Under the development trend of "meta universe", the trend of computing revolution may bring opportunities to improve the valuation of A-share consumer electronics, media and other sectors; Under the convergence of "cpi-ppi" scissors difference, the mandatory consumer goods in line with the national strategic orientation also deserve attention.
Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) won the crown of increase
Excluding the secondary new shares listed after 2021, Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) rose as high as 918.58% in the year of the ox, becoming the "best stock" in the year of the ox.
According to public information, Dexin Jiaoyun is mainly engaged in road passenger transportation, passenger bus station business and lithium battery equipment cutting mold business. The company's net profit in 2020 is negative and its operating income is less than 100 million yuan, which touches the stock delisting risk warning situation in the stock listing rules. The company's shares have implemented delisting risk warning and put on the "* ST" hat since April 28, 2021.
But in less than a year, the company has ushered in the dawn of "taking off its hat". Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) recently disclosed the announcement of performance forecast profit in 2021. The company is expected to realize a net profit of 80 million yuan to 110 million yuan in 2021, which is expected to turn loss into profit.
The company said that if the 2021 annual report indicates that the company does not meet any of the circumstances in article 13.3.2 of the stock listing rules, the company may apply to the Shanghai stock exchange for cancellation of the delisting risk warning in accordance with article 13.3.7 of the stock listing rules.
After Delixi Xinjiang Transportation Co.Ltd(603032) , the Bull Stock Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) measured by covid-19 ranks second in the year of bull. Since the end of last year, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) covid-19 self inspection products have been favorable frequently, driving the company's share price to rise vertically, with the maximum increase of more than 10 times, and the cumulative increase in the year of the ox is fixed at 700%.
The annual growth of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , senxuan medicine and Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) cattle also exceeded 400%.
"Top ten bull stocks" in the year of the ox
On the other hand, affected by the policy environment, the share price of Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) bull year of education and training plunged 83.24%, ranking the bottom of a shares. China Dive Company Limited(300526) , Kaile Science And Technology Co.Ltd.Hubei(600260) , Easy Visible Supply Chain Management Co.Ltd(600093) also fell by more than 70%.
"Top ten bear stocks" in the year of the ox
organization: February is expected to be the starting point of the market in the first half of the year
At the beginning of 2022, the overall performance of the A-share market was poor. The internal and external factors such as the lower than expected incremental funds and the sharp rise of US bond interest rate disturbed the capital sentiment. After the outlook Festival, the institutional view is generally optimistic that the market is expected to stabilize and recover after all risks are fully digested.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the negative impact on the denominator side is intensive, the confidence on the numerator side is insufficient, and the pre holiday trading level disturbance is superimposed, resulting in the continuous adjustment of the market in the beginning of the year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that looking forward to the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the positive factors will be gradually revised upward, the steady growth policy will accelerate the promotion and force, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year; On the other hand, negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing changes in overseas liquidity expectations, and the negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations years ago is being accelerated. In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) emphasizes the need to grasp the starting point of the market in the first half of the year.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that first, the short-term adjustment of the market deviated from China's policy trend. External changes such as the Fed's exit from easing will not restrict the policy rhythm of "focusing on me", nor will it change the trend of long-term additional allocation of A-Shares by foreign capital; Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market also deviated from the fundamental trend supported by the policy; Finally, the policy exit path of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year has been clear. After the full response of US stocks and US bonds in the early stage, the sensitivity has been reduced. It is expected that the actual risk of overseas markets during the Spring Festival holiday is not large. To sum up, under the resonance of "emotional bottom" and "market bottom", the "overshoot" of A-Shares brought better buying points for the market in the first half of the year.
