Recently, the Ministry of culture and tourism issued the "14th five year plan for tourism development", which defined the medium and long-term objectives. With the innovation and improvement of China's tourism under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, and under the premise of effective control of the international epidemic, promote the recovery of inbound and outbound tourism step by step and orderly.
Several securities companies believe that the tourism sector may gradually usher in a rebound. As of the closing on January 28, the catering and tourism sector rose 2.10%.
the "14th five year plan" policy was issued to help tourism development
For the policies clearly put forward in the 14th five year development plan, many securities companies believe that this is expected to alleviate the inbound and outbound tourism that continues to be under pressure after the epidemic, which is also conducive to promoting the recovery of the demand side of offline consumption sectors in China, including duty-free / hotels / scenic spots / catering.
Promote the in-depth integration of culture and tourism, build a number of world-class scenic spots and resorts with rich cultural heritage, and create national tourism and leisure cities and blocks with distinctive cultural characteristics. Under this guidance, the penetration rate of theme tourism such as leisure tourism, red tourism / rural tourism in China will be further improved in the future, and the high-end resort industry is expected to usher in a development dividend period;
"Internet plus tourism" further deepened the development of . With the implementation of policies such as promoting the development of Intelligent Tourism and online tourism and building a number of tourism cities and characteristic tourism destinations, Minsheng Securities believes that China's leisure scenic spots and theme parks, such as the eternal scene area under Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) and Atlantis under Fosun tourism, have not or will usher in a period of structural development.
tourism consumption gradually returned to the pre epidemic level
On January 25, 2022, the Finance Department of the Ministry of culture, culture and tourism announced the data of China's tourism in 2021. The total number of Chinese tourists in 2021 was about 3.246 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, returning to 54.05% in the same period in 2019.
While the number of tourist trips is increasing, tourism consumption is also increasing year-on-year. China's tourism revenue (total tourism consumption) was about 2.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.02% year-on-year, returning to 51.00% in 2019, an increase of 0.69 trillion yuan over the same period last year. The annual per capita tourism consumption in 2021 was about 899.28 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.17%, an increase of 125.14 yuan compared with the same period in 2020, and recovered to 94.33% in the same period in 2019.
Minsheng Securities believes that in the medium and short term , the macro environment of tourism is gradually improving, relying on the stable epidemic situation and the recovery of passenger flow to bring business repair. Several specific drugs and oral drugs have entered the phase III clinical trial stage, which has sent a positive signal to curb the recurrence of future epidemics.
in the long run , in the post epidemic generation, the development of cultural tourism industry depends more on improving product / service quality, optimizing the company's operation ability, creating unique products or corporate culture, forming IP to occupy the minds of consumers, improve the bargaining power of products, and finally rely on the increase of customer unit price to improve business performance.
tourism sector investment logic
Minsheng Securities believes that the effective epidemic prevention system + the full spread of vaccines + the approval and landing of specific drugs + the promotion of oral drug research and development can effectively boost consumers' travel expectations, and the demand side and performance side of offline consumption formats such as wine, tourism and catering are expected to achieve a high elastic recovery in the future. We suggest focusing on four main lines of recovery logic:
Recommend high-quality hotel targets at the bottom of the cycle / with stable long-term growth logic;
Benefiting from the increased penetration of leisure tourism and peripheral tourism, China's leisure scenic spots and theme parks, such as the eternal scene area under Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) and Atlantis under Fosun tourism, may usher in a structural development period in the future. In addition, due to the increased popularity of ice and snow tourism brought by the Winter Olympic Games, Relevant snow and Ice Tourism targets in Northeast China may benefit in the future. Pay attention to the target of high-quality scenic spots and the target with complete tourism industry chain business;
It is suggested to pay attention to the catering faucets that are expected to be repaired in the same store after the epidemic;
The tax-free sector benefiting from consumption return and consumption upgrading, as well as the human services sector with obvious anti cyclical attributes, recommend the leader with prominent barriers.
key subject:
Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (301073. SZ): the company's share price has risen nearly 100% since it was listed for more than four months. In the near future, it plans to acquire 79% equity of Junlan hotel management, 70% equity of Jinglan hotel investment management and "Junlan" series trademarks owned by Junlan hotel group with 140 million cash. Engaged in the operation and management of medium and high-end selected service chain hotels.
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754. SH): the company is one of the largest listed companies in the hotel and catering industry in China. Its main business is "limited service hotel operation and management business" and "food and catering business".
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258. SH): the company is a leading hotel group company with prominent advantages in market scale. It focuses on the investment and operation management of economic chain and medium and high-end hotels, and also has the business of scenic spots.
Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144. SZ): the company is the first performing arts stock in China and one of the top ten enterprises of the global theme park group. At present, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) is building a number of cultural and entertainment projects under the strategic guidance of "performing arts song city, tourism song city, international song city, technology song city, IP song city and online red song city".
China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) (600138. SH): the company is mainly engaged in tourism and high-tech investment; To engage in inbound tourism, Chinese tourism and outbound tourism at the expense of Chinese citizens;
Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (603136. SH): the company is located in the center of Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) tourist resort in Liyang, Jiangsu Province. It is a large-scale enterprise engaged in the planning and construction of scenic spots, operation and management and travel agency services.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888. SH): the company is mainly engaged in travel agency business and duty-free business, which mainly includes the wholesale and retail of duty-free commodities such as tobacco, alcohol and incense, as well as the development of comprehensive tourism projects.
(source of report: Minsheng securities, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) ; the information in this article does not constitute any investment suggestions. The contents published are from licensed securities institutions and do not represent the views of the platform. Investors are requested to make independent judgment and decision.)
