"Maintaining the stable growth of the total amount of money and credit" and "increasing the financing supply" not only appeared in the priorities of the central bank and the CBRC, but also listed the growth of guarantee credit as the primary task of this year's work at the working meetings of local CBRC and banks. At the same time, the key areas of credit investment have also been clear. Small and micro enterprises and green finance will become the focus of credit support this year.
In addition, under the "three stability" policy of "stabilizing land prices, house prices and expectations", measures such as strictly controlling risks, meeting reasonable needs and increasing financial support for Housing leasing have become the consensus of regulatory authorities and the banking industry.
many places will reasonably increase financing supply
"Based on expanding effective demand, reasonably increase financing supply." The Beijing Banking and insurance regulatory bureau pointed out this at the working meeting and regarded it as one of the important tasks of "promoting a virtuous cycle of the national economy". It is worth noting that the banking and insurance regulatory bureaus in Guangdong, Tianjin, Fujian, Sichuan and other places have put similar statements in the relatively top position of this year's key work.
In January this year, bank credit growth once fell short of market expectations. Some institutions are worried that the overall credit growth this year will be lower than that in 2021. But then the financial regulators voiced "stabilizing credit". At the 2022 working meeting, the CBRC pointed out that we should reasonably increase the financing supply and ensure the financing of key areas and major projects in the 14th five year plan. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, also wrote recently that he would "guide financial institutions to effectively expand credit supply and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit".
It is worth noting that this year's increase in credit is not an indiscriminate "flood", but will guide the steady optimization of the credit structure. For this reason, local credit lending emphasizes the need to focus on local key strategies and focus on supporting the development of small and micro enterprises, the "double carbon" field and the enterprise development in the "specialized and special new" field.
"To reasonably increase financing supply is to increase support for the real economy." Zeng Gang, deputy director of the national finance and development laboratory, said that doing a good job in financing key areas and major projects will help stabilize growth in the short term, boost investment and expand domestic demand to a certain extent, and investing in areas such as "specialization and innovation" and "double carbon" will help the adjustment of the whole economic structure and high-quality development in the long run.
However, the focus varies from place to place. For example, Beijing requires financial services for the Winter Olympic Games and the whole winter Paralympic Games. At the same time, it also emphasizes the consumption reduction and upgrading of traditional high-carbon enterprises and the stability of energy production and supply, so as to promote industrial transformation and upgrading; Guangzhou tends to support the expansion of investment, promote consumption, stabilize foreign trade and meet the capital needs of moderately advanced investment in infrastructure; Sichuan will intensify its efforts to reduce the burden and relieve market players, and continue to increase the credit supply to poverty-stricken areas and key counties; Fujian focuses on serving the development strategies of Fujian's digital economy, marine economy, green economy and cultural tourism economy.
At the 2022 working conference, many banks also pointed out the need to "arrange the total amount and structure of credit and investment", "increase the total financial supply both on and off balance sheet", serve entities, continue to reduce fees and profits, and provide credit support for major projects of "steady growth", manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, green development and other fields.
"The corporate credit business structure of the bank may be adjusted in 2022." Bank Of China Limited(601988) the research institute also pointed out in the report that under the requirements of building a dual cycle development pattern, the banking industry will adjust the credit supply in relevant fields and invest more loans in real economy fields such as infrastructure, manufacturing and Inclusive Finance.
the real estate market has become the focus of risk prevention
From the current statements of local banking and insurance regulatory bureaus and banks, "real estate is not fried" is still the basic principle. At the same time, the real estate market has not been removed from the task of "resolving financial risks and preventing" in various places, but guiding the healthy development of the real estate market is the key task of local banking and insurance regulatory bureaus this year.
In fact, a series of good news about the clearing of risks in the real estate market continue to emerge, and the reorganization of real estate enterprises and project mergers and acquisitions are already on the way. Moreover, the banking industry, national asset management companies and other financial institutions are constantly entering the real estate M & a business, which has boosted the confidence of the real estate market.
Local financial regulatory authorities have not relaxed their vigilance to the risks of the real estate market. Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau believes that there is still a "grey rhinoceros" risk in real estate, while Guangdong banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau requires and strictly prevent the diffusion of industrial risks to financial risks and steadily control real estate financial risks.
"In some key cities, it will take some time to resolve the risks in the real estate market." A financial person told the associated press that if only static stress tests are considered, the current risks of individual real estate enterprises will not have an impact on the financial market. The upstream and downstream industrial chains of the real estate market are complex and cover a wide range. It is difficult to predict whether there are other risk points from a dynamic perspective. When the risk of the real estate market has not been completely cleared, it is reasonable for some key cities to be in full readiness.
It is generally expected that the credit environment of the real estate market will be further improved in 2022. Although the basic principle of "housing without speculation" is still maintained, the reasonable financing needs of the real estate market will continue to be met.
The working meeting of the banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau in some regions clearly pointed out that this year, it will meet the reasonable demand for the first house and improved housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the local real estate market. However, there are differences in local political strategies. For example, Sichuan banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau will focus on supporting the development of housing rental market and affordable housing, while Fujian will focus on implementing the differentiated credit policy of real estate.
A bank with a relatively low concentration of real estate loans told the associated press that at present, the risk of personal housing mortgage loans, M & A loans and other businesses is relatively small, so the bank has plans to increase the credit intensity of housing loans this year.
In addition, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the overall credit policy environment of the current real estate market has begun to improve. It is expected that various policies to clear the market risk of housing loans will continue to be released this year, and the stabilization of the real estate market will be the overall trend.
