In the first full fiscal year after the mixed reform, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) (002129. SZ), which is in the “Li Dongsheng era”, achieved the performance goal.
“Central semiconductor exceeded the performance doubling plan.” As an indirect controlling shareholder, Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) (000100. SZ) commented on Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) in the 2021 annual performance announcement.
According to the announcement, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) is expected to realize an operating revenue of 40 billion yuan to 42 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), with a year-on-year increase of 109.90% to 120.39%; The net profit is expected to reach 3.8 billion yuan to 4.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.95% to 285.68%.
In this regard, Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) said that benefiting from the accelerated improvement of 210 product capacity, “take advantage of 210 product differentiation and cost advantages to alleviate the cost pressure of downstream customers and improve their competitiveness”.
It is worth noting that under the influence of both volume and price, silicon wafer enterprises generally achieved high growth performance last year.
silicon track competition is fierce
With Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) disclosing the annual performance forecast, new and old silicon wafers will conduct a positive contest of performance for the first time in the full fiscal year.
Since 2021, the photovoltaic silicon track has been hot, and the tide of investment and production expansion has followed. However, in terms of silicon wafer capacity, overcapacity is inevitable in the next few years.
According to the previous statistics of the silicon branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, according to China’s installed capacity of 46.8gw and component export of 96gw in 2021, the annual surplus of silicon wafer and downstream is expected to be 25.8gw, mainly due to the phased overcapacity caused by insufficient demand in the terminal market.
In addition to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012. SH), Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) two “veterans”, silicon wafer “upstarts” such as Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) (603185. SH), Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908. SH), Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481. SH) have been added to the silicon wafer field in recent years.
Recently, as the latter three have successively announced the performance forecast for 2021, the diversion of silicon wafers has brought significant results to the performance improvement.
“Overall sales growth”, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) said in the forecast of the annual report that it expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to be 285-325 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.40% to 136.50%. It is worth mentioning that the company’s net profit in the fourth quarter accounted for nearly 40% of the annual results.
Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 770 million yuan to 924 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75% to 110%. The company believes that the operating revenue of the company’s new materials business has increased significantly.
The Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) can be described as a “bumper harvest”. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 1.63 billion yuan to 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 207% to 239% year-on-year. According to the performance forecast, this is because it maintained a good capacity utilization rate and production and marketing rate last year, and the sales scale of monocrystalline silicon business continued to expand.
This year, the competition of silicon track is still hot. As the relative shortage of silicon supply will continue, the price of silicon wafer will be affected.
On January 27, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) closely followed the increase in the price of monocrystalline silicon, only 11 days after the last price adjustment. With 160 μ M thickness as an example, the latest price information shows that the quotation of M10 silicon wafer is 6.38 yuan, up 3.7%; The quotation of M6 silicon wafer is 5.35 yuan, up 3.9%; The quotation of G1 silicon wafer is 5.15 yuan, up 4.0%.
Just the day before, central also raised the price of silicon wafers. With 160 μ M thickness as an example, the quotation of G1 silicon wafer is 5.4 yuan / piece, an increase of 8%; The quotation of M6 silicon wafer was 5.3 yuan / piece, an increase of 8.1%; The quotation of M10 silicon wafer is 6.4 yuan / piece, with an increase of 12.3%; The price of G12 silicon wafer is 8.55 yuan / piece, an increase of 11%.
The latest price of silicon wafers with a maximum increase of more than 12% caused an uproar in the downstream procurement market. Since then, the company responded to investors about the reasons for the price increase, “the price of upstream silicon material has increased.”
new and old generals show their strengths
In 2021, the price of silicon materials rises continuously, which has a significant impact on the procurement cost of silicon wafer manufacturers. Previously, the market generally judged that under the background of tight silicon supply and high price, the profits of silicon wafer manufacturers were under pressure.
However, silicon wafer manufacturers in the relative upstream still have the price initiative.
The net profit of Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) exceeds the sum of Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) . It has also become the silicon giant with the largest year-on-year increase among the listed companies involved in the silicon track.
The 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that there are two reasons for Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) to achieve high profits, one is to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the other is close coordination with upstream and downstream.
Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) said that through a series of technological progress, the production efficiency of a single furnace was leading in the industry during the reporting period, and the silicon material consumption rate per unit product decreased significantly year-on-year. Through the improvement of thin line and flake process, the silicon wafer yield and product a rate increased significantly, and the gross profit per unit product was improved to a great extent. In the face of the price fluctuation of polysilicon raw materials, the company’s production and operation are well guaranteed through long-term good supply chain cooperation and reasonable inventory control.
Similarly, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) will bet on the upstream and downstream supply relationship of competitive advantage. As a new upstart entering the silicon track across the border, the huge long order signed by him will lock in the raw material procurement and downstream sales in the next two to three years in advance.
In September 2021, Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) first signed an agreement with Jiangsu Zhongneng, Xinte energy and their related parties to purchase 52700 tons and 82200 tons of polysilicon materials respectively, with an estimated purchase amount of 11.209 billion yuan and 17.468 billion yuan respectively. Subsequently, the company announced in November that it would sign a long-term purchase and sales contract with the Asian silicon industry, and planned to purchase about 252100 tons of polysilicon materials from the latter.
In the three months of the fourth quarter of 2021, we won two, one and three long silicon wafer sales orders respectively. According to the market price at the time of signing, the sales amount is expected to reach 22.76 billion yuan, 6.527 billion yuan and 12.144 billion yuan respectively.
In addition, the 21st Century Business Herald reporter noted that the fixed increase of Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) nearly 3.5 billion has been approved, and the expansion of silicon wafer production has been accelerated. According to the announcement, 3 billion yuan is used for the expansion of 20GW monocrystalline silicon wafer in phase I, and 488 million yuan is used to supplement working capital. Overweight silicon chip means that this may become a new round of growth point in the future.
At the same time, in order to accelerate the expansion of silicon wafer business and realize the gradual increase of production capacity. Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) also ensures the timely supply of monocrystal furnace equipment by signing a long purchase order. At the end of 2021, the company further purchased additional single crystal furnaces from Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) . Based on the investment of 140 million yuan / GW of single crystal furnaces, the corresponding capacity of the company’s locked single crystal furnace equipment was increased from 10GW to 16GW.
The Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , which is also a “Silicon upstart”, has also made great efforts to invest in production expansion projects and seek long-term order signing.
On December 7, 2021, Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Wuxi Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) signed the silicon wafer procurement framework contract with the buyer. The buyer plans to purchase 600 million single crystal silicon wafers from Wuxi Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) in 2022, with an estimated sales amount of 3.6 billion yuan. It is noteworthy that the sales amount of 3.6 billion yuan of the order signed by Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) almost caught up with the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of this year. On the same day, Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) also disclosed that it plans to invest in the construction of Leshan phase II 22gw high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon rod and chip project, with a total investment of about 5.5 billion yuan.
Last October, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) joined hands with Jiangsu Zhongneng and Gaojia Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) to cooperate with 100000 tons of granular silicon and other projects in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. In addition, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) also invested 18 billion yuan in 300000 tons of granular silicon project in February last year.
It is worth mentioning that Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) is still actively laying out the integration strategy of “silicon wafer + granular silicon + nano silicon” to ensure the stability of profit growth. “The granular silicon + nano silicon project is expected to be put into operation in the third quarter of 2022, and the shipment is expected to reach more than 30000 tons, bringing new profit growth points to the company’s future performance.” Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) analyst Wang Huajun said in the previous research report.
Although downstream manufacturers have a high acceptance of new entrants, a new round of game is about to take place with the dynamic change of silicon wafer price.
“Based on the overall calculation of the current terminal price and income balance, it is expected that there are still great doubts about whether the downstream can accept the new price.” According to the analysis of pvinfolink, an industry organization.
