There are more and more Chinese people staying at home all day or even for a week. The consumption of otaku men and otaku women not only brings fire to a large number of emerging industries such as lazy seasoning, prefabricated vegetables and pet industry, but also works at home, making purchasing agents, content entrepreneurship and live broadcasting popular, The family as the main place of economic activities is taking root and expanding day by day, which will have a subversive impact on the original mainstream economic model of centralized production and consumption.
go to the center of the stage
First finance previously reported that the market of "lazy seasoning", that is, compound seasoning, which caters to the home crowd, has expanded rapidly in the past five years. The market scale of Chinese compound seasoning was 31.5 billion yuan in 2016 and 63.4 billion yuan in 2021. Listed companies such as Haidilao and Shuanghui are scrambling to enter this market.
The homestead crowd has also put the prefabricated vegetable industry on the fast track. The space scale of China's Prefabricated vegetables is expected to reach 340 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18%. In the next three to five years, China's Prefabricated vegetable industry is expected to become the next trillion catering market. Listed companies such as Gaishi food and Shandong Delisi Food Co.Ltd(002330) are popular in the capital market because of prefabricated vegetables.
The three washing products (land washer, clothes dryer and dishwasher) that let housemen and housewomen do not and do less are also popular among consumers and the capital market. Taking the land washer with the functions of dust collection, mopping and self-cleaning mop as an example, ovicloud expects that the sales of China's land washer will increase by 327% year-on-year in 2021, Listed companies such as Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486. SH) doubled their share prices by washing machines and other online red products.
Living at home, the demand for companionship is particularly strong, which brings fire to the pet industry.
In 2020, the scale of China's urban pet market was close to 300 billion yuan, and the compound growth rate in the six years from 2015 to 2020 reached 32.8%. IResearch predicts that the compound growth rate of China's pet industry will be 14.2% in the next three years, and the scale will reach 445.6 billion yuan by 2023.
After the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic, overseas tourism was blocked, which unexpectedly stimulated the development of purchasing industry.
After 85, Chen Ying is a native of Hangzhou. After graduating from university in 2008, she joined the tourism industry. She started with the most basic customer service and became a sales manager with an annual income of more than 400000.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the income of the main tourism industry was almost nil. "At the worst, there was no list in a month," Chen Ying said. Over the past two years, Chen Ying's tourism industry has suffered heavy losses. Before the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019, the number of tourists in China was 6.006 billion, and the total tourism revenue in the whole year was 6.63 trillion yuan. In 2021, the total number of tourists in China was 3.246 billion, and China's tourism revenue was 2.92 trillion yuan. Although the total number of tourists and revenue have recovered, they are still close to halving compared with two years ago.
The purchasing business, originally a sideline, has gradually become Chen Ying's main business.
After the covid-19 outbreak in 2020, China's offline channels were blocked, and the development trend of the epidemic abroad was unstable. The consumer demand for imported goods could only be released through China, but the business of purchasing agents was better.
"Since the epidemic, the business of purchasing on behalf of others has actually been better. Part of the reason is that they can have more energy input, but more importantly, the guests can't go out," Chen Ying said She revealed that the current monthly flow is very stable, several times that of the original, and the customer structure has changed greatly, "agents account for a large proportion". As a big agent who can get first-hand supply, she gradually has dozens of secondary agents scattered all over the country.
According to the in-depth market research and investment prospect analysis report of China's overseas purchasing agency industry from 2018 to 2024 released by Zhiyan consulting, the transaction scale of China's overseas purchasing agency market was only 5 billion yuan in 2009, and the scale of China's overseas purchasing agency market reached 260.1 billion yuan by 2018. Overseas purchasing agency maintained rapid growth, extending from the first and second tier to the third and fourth tier consumer groups.
According to Zhang Yi, chief analyst of AI media consulting, the housing economy can be divided into consumption and production (home office and practice). The whole market scale of the consumer side has a scale of 1.5 trillion, involving many industries such as e-commerce, takeout, games and food. Among the consumer side industries driven by the housing economy, the sum of e-commerce and takeout accounts for about half.
According to the data of toubao Research Institute, from 2019 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of the market involved in the housing economy reached 17.7%. It is estimated that by 2024, the total scale of the housing economy market will exceed 3 trillion yuan.
hot back
The housing economy is not a new phenomenon. Decades ago, a group of young people appeared in Japan. They were addicted to comics and video games. They stayed at home all day, resulting in the housing culture, which led to the topic of housing economy in which production and consumption shifted from public to family.
In 2020, covid-19 epidemic broke out all over the world, many economic activities were forced to stop, people lived at home, production and life were all at home, so that the scale of the housing economy once reached its peak.
Under the stimulating effect of covid-19 epidemic, the sales revenue of China's game market reached 278.687 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 20.71% year-on-year in 2019, the highest growth in recent three years.
In 2020, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 83.36 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%; Business income totaled 879.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%.
Also in 2020, according to AI media data, the scale of China's takeout catering market reached 664.6 billion yuan in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 15.0%.
Covid-19 epidemic is like a growth hormone, which has led to the rapid growth of many industries with the attribute of housing economy. However, after the epidemic prevention and control has been normalized, these industries return to normal, and some even shrink rapidly.
In 2021, the number of game users in China reached 666 million, a year-on-year increase of only 0.22%, reaching a new low in recent years.
In 2021, China's sales of electric ovens, wall breaking machines and portable cups, which are popular in the epidemic, showed a year-on-year negative growth; Breakfast machine, egg beater and other small household appliances were impulsively purchased, but they also fell ash in the corner of the kitchen because they were not used much.
For the housing economy, the epidemic has played a stimulant role, but it is impossible to support the long-term and sustainable development of the housing economy. After a short period of prosperity, the dust returns to the dust and the earth returns to the earth.
To develop and expand the housing economy, we need some long-term and lasting supporting elements.
Yan Leyu, research manager of small household appliances at AVC, told the first finance reporter that it has become a normal performance for young mainstream consumer groups to be lazy and stay at home. To re-enter the virtuous circle of sustainable development, kitchen small household appliances still need to have in-depth insight into consumers and stimulate demand through innovative technologies, Or solve the real pain points of "lazy people" in various scenarios.
Wu Hao, deputy director partner of Aowei consulting, said in the interview that the impact of the epidemic on consumption habits is medium and long-term, and the market growth of related categories stimulated by the housing economy will continue for some time.
Consumers have a strong demand for relief from heavy housework. In recent years, consumers have paid more and more attention to the quality of family life, hoping for better decoration and decoration, smarter kitchen appliances and more environmentally friendly furniture. Zhang Yi said that the above needs of consumers still exist even after the epidemic and will continue to promote the development of housing economy.
The home group is not just a consumer, but it is not just going to work and start a business at home, and it does not need to go out to get caught up in the sun or rain. It can has the final say. Content entrepreneurship and live broadcasting business have become popular in recent years.
Liu Xiaoxiao, 28, left a company three years ago and started digital technology we media. After releasing new mobile phones, computers, wireless headphones, tablets and other products, many businesses rely on professional KOL (key opinion leader) to introduce, evaluate and "plant grass". Therefore, Liu Xiaoxiao has an income of about 200000 to 300000 yuan a year in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, He is a well paid person. In just a few years, Liu Xiaoxiao earned the down payment for a house. Liu Xiaoxiao's house is a loft apartment near Ganjiang River in Nanchang. His studio is on the first floor and his living room is on the second floor. He doesn't have to get up early to catch the subway and clock in and out every day. He can wake up naturally and arrange his own work rhythm.
Over the past few years, the Internet platform has provided a stage for thousands of people to start their own businesses.
In 2020, a total of 15.66 million new users of today's headlines published content for the first time, helping creators earn $7.6 billion. It is planned to help headline creators earn $10 billion in 2021. In June 2021, watermelon video joint jitter and tiktok launched the "video Partnership Program", which gave the creator traffic sharing and resource support. In the past six months, a total of 500 thousand video creators joined the program, and over 13000 people averaged over 10000 monthly, and over 4000 people expected to enter 500 thousand annually.
In the first quarter of 2021, the average number of daily live users of China Kwai app and small programs reached 379 million 200 thousand, up 26.4% over the same period last year. Kwai's average monthly new content creators exceed 10 million. By March 31, 2021, nearly 24 million users had been earning income in Kwai Fu applications in various formats in one year.
There are various forms of content entrepreneurship. Liu Xiaoxiao takes the KOL route and outputs interesting content in professional fields; Koc (key opinion consumers) directly explain and promote products. E-commerce live broadcasting is in full swing now, with Li Jiaqi and Weiya as representatives.
According to the Research Report on China's live e-commerce industry in 2021 released by iResearch consulting, the scale of China's live e-commerce market will reach 1.2 trillion yuan in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 197.0%. It is expected that the average annual compound growth rate in the next three years will be 58.3%, and the scale of live e-commerce will exceed 4.9 trillion yuan in 2023. By the end of 2020, the number of anchors in the industry had reached 1234000.
Engaging in the housing economy can not only earn money, but also earn a lot of money. The housing economy has a stronger driving force for sustainable development.
growth will outperform GDP
Zhang Yi is optimistic about the long-term development of the housing economy. The epidemic is a good market education in the development of the housing economy. Prefabricated dishes and other products begin to enter ordinary families from the kitchen of hotels. Similar new consumption habits are expected to be maintained, and the people's demand for improving the quality of family life will continue for a long time, which are the driving factors of the housing economy, In addition, China's Internet infrastructure is becoming more and more perfect, and the growth of housing economy will maintain a rapid speed, probably outperforming the growth rate of GDP.
By June 2021, the total number of mobile phone base stations in China had reached 9.48 million, a net increase of 170000 compared with December 2020. Among them, the total number of 4G base stations is 5.84 million, accounting for 61.6%; The total number of 5g base stations is 961000, of which 190000 will be newly built in the first half of 2021.
By June 2021, the total length of national optical cable lines had reached 53.52 million kilometers, a net increase of 1.83 million kilometers compared with December 2020.
"With the Internet becoming more and more intelligent and various demands derived from mass consumers, it has become an important driving force for the birth of a new wave of the Internet." "The development of 5g and other emerging technologies has also provided strong technical support for the housing economy," frost Sullivan, executive director, told the first financial reporter
Yu Jian, general manager of Kaidu consumer index greater China, told the first financial reporter: "The housing economy is becoming more and more popular. The main reasons for promoting the development of the housing economy include that Internet technology includes 5g / cloud computing, so that the services originally provided on site can be transferred from offline to online; secondly, the change of consumers' lifestyle, especially young consumers' habit of realizing all communication and social activities in the network and virtual world."
Another infrastructure needed for the development of housing economy is logistics. Ren Guoqiang, senior partner of Roland Berger and vice president of Greater China, believes that developed logistics will make e-commerce and home service the most typical form of housing economy.
One end of the residential economy is consumption and the other is production. Among many industries involved, Zhang Yi is optimistic about the development of live e-commerce. He believes that live e-commerce is a typical residential economy. The drainage cost of mainstream e-commerce has been unattainable, and the growth has encountered the ceiling. Live e-commerce can interact with consumers in real time to make consumers have a better shopping experience; The development of live broadcasting e-commerce has led to cross-border live broadcasting e-commerce. China has skilled anchors, some of whom are housewives. They use tiktok and express to make their business abroad. Live e-commerce will only have 900 billion in 2019 and 2 trillion in 2021. Behind the rapid growth is the exertion of intelligence and knowledge into value.
At present, the housing economy has developed a huge ecosystem. According to the report of the head leopard Research Institute, the upstream of the housing economy industry includes content and IP copyright suppliers (such as reading group), server suppliers (such as Inspur and Huawei), and product suppliers (such as bubble mart); Midstream includes service providers (such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, meituan, byte beat, JD, BiliBili); Downstream consumers include generation Z and middle-aged and elderly people.
Application scenarios include online learning, listening to music, playing games, chatting, short video, searching information, watching video, watching animation, social community, reading novels, online shopping, watching live broadcast, watching news and information, etc.
Yu Jian said that the epidemic has accelerated the development of the housing economy. In the future, China's social form, aging, fewer children, more pets and highly developed digital economy will further expand the scale and development speed of the housing economy. Therefore, the housing economy will continue to develop in the future.
