Viewpoint: according to PMI data for two consecutive months, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still a rebound, and the downward pressure is still large. However, the data recovery may boost the market in the short term. In addition, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole has maintained a good foundation. After the central bank lowered the reserve requirement and LPR in the fourth quarter of last year, the central bank lowered the MFL and reverse repo interest rate in the beginning of the year, and the monetary easing cycle gradually opened. Under the expectation of abundant liquidity, the market as a whole was still boosted. In the short term, after the continuous decline of the market, the fund companies welcome the buying tide or boost the market confidence. With the support of fundamentals and the boost of liquidity, the logic of the market for the better remains unchanged, and the spring market is still a good opportunity to lurk.
On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the three indexes collectively opened high. After the opening, the diving collectively turned green, and the record index fell 2900 points. Since then, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has been promoted, entrepreneurship has been the first to turn red, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have rebounded. On the disk, the sodium ion sector opened higher, the ice and snow industry strengthened, coal, steel and other cyclical stocks fell, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and other white horse stocks led the decline. In terms of specific sectors, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the rise, while light industry manufacturing, social services and communications led the rise, while coal led the decline, and non-ferrous metals, steel and automobiles led the decline.
According to incomplete statistics, a total of 17 public funds announced relevant information in just two days from January 26 to 27, with a self purchase amount of 1.2 billion yuan. It is not the first time for fund companies to buy by themselves. Every time the market continues to decline, fund companies also have the behavior of buying by themselves. Under the tide of self purchase, it is conducive to the recovery of market confidence. According to historical data, there has been a wave of self purchase of funds in March 2014, September 2015, November 2018, March 2020 and February 2021. Under the tide of self purchase, the market has rebounded and risen in stages.
From the perspective of the recent market decline, it is mainly the impact of external market fluctuations and events. Among them, the concerns about the Fed’s interest rate increase and the acceleration of table contraction are still the main, coupled with the market adjustment caused by the decline of overvalued varieties. In fact, the current market is not substantially bad. It is more the result of emotional venting and structural adjustment. Under the trend of fundamental support and loose liquidity expectation, the market still has support and boost, and continues to be optimistic about the market in spring.
Back in the market, led by the better than expected performance of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , the gem stopped falling, took the lead in turning red and quickly pulled up. Under the multi sector meeting, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets followed closely and turned red at random. The bottom of the three indexes rebounded in the adjustment of mood, which can only show that there is still support and resistance below, which is conducive to the recovery of the index and the boost of confidence. Of course, on the last trading day before the Spring Festival, according to experience, the market trading is mostly flat, so we can’t expect much counterattack. However, after the continuous downward trend, the market stage risk is released, and the downward space is very small.
In the current market, the policy side is supported, the capital side is also boosted, and the rest is the emotional side. With the rise of the tide of self purchase of funds, the phased rebound may gradually start under the boost of the bottom recovery of the market. At present, there is no need to be too pessimistic. What is more is to do a good job in the low absorption of the spring market and wait patiently.
