On January 28, the stock index bottomed out in the morning and rebounded again in the afternoon, once falling more than 1%; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose for a time and fell lower at the end of the session; The gem index rose by nearly 2% at one time, and the decline narrowed significantly at the end of the session; The daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 800 billion yuan, with a large net outflow of funds from the north and a daily net sales of more than 12 billion yuan.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.97% to 3361.44 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to 13328.06 points, and the gem index rose 0.07% to 2908.94. Point; The total turnover of the two cities was 818.9 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 12.466 billion yuan.
On the disk, most of the sectors in the two cities rose, the tourism, hotel and catering sectors rose strongly, and the agriculture, media, home furnishing, logistics, environmental protection, oil and other sectors strengthened; The trend of coal, insurance, wine making, banking, securities companies and other sectors is weak; The concept of tax exemption, the concept of baby and child, prefabricated dishes, digital currency and the new retail concept are active.
For the post holiday market, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities expressed firm confidence and optimistic about the post holiday market of a shares. The negative impact on the denominator side is intensive, the confidence on the numerator side is insufficient, the pre holiday trading level disturbance is superimposed, and the pre holiday market continues to adjust. Looking forward to the Spring Festival, 1) positive factors will be gradually revised upward. After experiencing the real estate credit risk and local hidden debt problems in recent years, the market inevitably hesitates to stabilize growth. However, at present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, and the word “stability” will take the lead. The steady growth policy will accelerate and exert its force. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year. 2) Negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. Recently, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level, and the downward space is limited. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the sentiment of the A-share market has bottomed out periodically and is expected to recover in the future. In terms of sentiment indicators, the proportion of more than ma200 stocks in the whole market has dropped to 31.61%, the lowest since March 2021. In the past, the proportion of 20% – 30% was generally at the bottom of the stage; Secondly, from the valuation of popular sectors, the quantile of new energy valuation has decreased from about 80% in the early stage to 63.44% at present, military industry has decreased from 70% before New Year’s day to 41.79% at present, and electronics has further decreased from 30% to 18.07% at present. The adjustment of growth sectors has been relatively sufficient, and the valuation cost performance has been revealed; Finally, in terms of the self purchase scale of funds, at present, with the cold mood of fund issuance, fund companies have begun to purchase their own products. The average self purchase scale of funds in recent two months has reached about 400 million, which is at a historically high level. In the past, when the self purchase scale of funds reached a phased high point, the subsequent market will generally rebound. Typical cases are March 2021 and October 2021, Therefore, the current emotional bottom is expected to bring post Festival layout opportunities.
In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to the oversold and high growth sectors with good performance during the rebound after adjustment, as well as the expected improvement of media, agriculture, policy oriented old and new infrastructure, etc. 1) From the adjusted rebound angle, it is expected that the agriculture, value sector and new energy with improved fundamentals will rebound the most. The resumption of the follow-up industry performance after the market stabilized and rebounded after six market adjustments of 5-10 points since 2019. On the whole, the industries with better performance are generally the industries with oversold in the early stage and improved fundamentals. At present, the oversold is mainly new energy, military industry, chips, etc., and the recent performance is more catalytic, and the fundamentals are expected to improve significantly. 2) From the perspective of expected improvement and policy orientation, pay attention to the media with meta universe Catalysis (virtual people, games, etc.), the computer catalyzed by digital economy planning, agricultural breeding with Festival effect, and the new and old infrastructure with clear policy orientation.
