In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.64%, the Kechuang 50 index fell 12.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%.
On January 28, stimulated by the good news, the three major indexes opened higher, and the Shanghai index stood directly above 3400. In early trading, influenced by the weakness of cyclical stocks, the Shanghai index and the Shenzhen composite index both fell by more than 1%. Then the popular tracks rebounded one after another, driving the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets back to the upward trend. In the afternoon, the two cities maintained a high shock trend, showing a pattern of deep strength and Shanghai weakness. Near the end of trading, the rapid decline of non bank finance and banks led to the rapid decline of the two cities and returned to the decline trend.
By the close of January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97% to 3361.44 points; The Kechuang 50 index fell 0.91% to 1229.22 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to 13328.06 points; The gem index rose 0.08% to 2908.94 points.
So far this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.57%, the Kechuang 50 index fell 4.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 5% and the gem index fell 4.14%. In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 7.64%, the Kechuang 50 index fell 12.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%.
Wind statistics show that 3349 in the two cities rose, 1263 fell and 84 were flat.
On January 28, the total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 818.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan from 822.9 billion yuan on the previous trading day. Among them, 353.8 billion yuan was traded in Shanghai, an increase of 7.3 billion yuan over 346.5 billion yuan in the previous trading day, and 465.1 billion yuan was traded in Shenzhen.
A total of 75 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose by more than 9%, and 36 stocks fell by more than 9%.
The total net outflow of northbound funds on January 28 was 12.467 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 8.322 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 4.145 billion yuan. So far, the total net outflow of funds from the north this week was 26.072 billion yuan; In January, the total net inflow of northbound funds was 16.773 billion yuan.
digital currency led the two cities
On the sector, digital currency led the rise of the two cities, Shenzhen Ysstech Info-Tech Co.Ltd(300377) (300377), Zjbc Information Technology Co.Ltd(000889) (000889), Hengbao Co.Ltd(002104) (002104) or more than 10%, and Global Infotech Co.Ltd(300465) (300465), Feitian Technologies Co.Ltd(300386) (300386) or more than 5%.
Three child concept stocks rose intraday, Annil Co.Ltd(002875) (002875), Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) (603214), mubang high tech (603398), Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) (002348) and other trading limits.
Coal stocks led the decline in the two cities, with Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) (601666), Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) (600997), Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) (000983), Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) (600395) falling by more than 7%.
The non-ferrous metal sector also performed poorly, Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) (600711), Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) (000762), Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807) and other sectors fell by more than 5%.
Baijiu shares fell by the same time. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858) all fell more than 2%, while Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) (000995) fell to the limit, while Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779), Tian you de (002646) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596) fell more than 3%.
the most panic stage is over
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that since 2022, the market has continued to adjust, and the three indexes ended the market in January with a short-term low. The Federal Reserve announced that it may raise interest rates in March, and the table contraction will be started within the year. Overseas negative factors will be released in the near future. However, the most panic stage has passed, and the stage of the strongest short sentiment in the market has come to an end. From a medium – and long-term perspective, the steady and long-term development trend of China’s economy has not changed, and more positive structural changes are taking place in the capital market.
Therefore, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the post holiday market is expected to usher in a restorative rebound pattern, which can focus on two main lines: one is to benefit from the interest rate cut and economic bottom expectation, pay attention to the concepts related to finance and infrastructure, and the other is the outlet of digital economy, pay attention to artificial intelligence, 5g, data security, information construction, etc.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that the A-share market sentiment has bottomed out periodically and is expected to recover in the future. In terms of sentiment indicators, the proportion of more than ma200 stocks in the whole market has dropped to 31.61%, the lowest since March 2021. In the past, the proportion of 20% – 30% was generally at the bottom of the stage; Secondly, from the valuation of popular sectors, the quantile of new energy valuation has decreased from about 80% in the early stage to 63.44% at present, military industry has decreased from 70% before New Year’s day to 41.79% at present, and electronics has further decreased from 30% to 18.07% at present. The adjustment of growth sectors has been relatively sufficient, and the valuation cost performance has been revealed; Finally, in terms of the self purchase scale of funds, at present, with the cold mood of fund issuance, fund companies have begun to purchase their own products. The average self purchase scale of funds in recent two months has reached about 400 million, which is at a historically high level. In the past, when the self purchase scale of funds reached a phased high point, the subsequent market will generally rebound. Typical cases are March 2021 and October 2021, Therefore, the current emotional bottom is expected to bring post Festival layout opportunities.
In terms of industry allocation, we should pay attention to the oversold and high growth sectors with good performance during the rebound after adjustment, as well as the expected improvement of media, agriculture, policy oriented old and new infrastructure, etc. 1) From the adjusted rebound angle, it is expected that the agriculture, value sector and new energy with improved fundamentals will rebound the most. The resumption of the follow-up industry performance after the market stabilized and rebounded after six market adjustments of 5-10 points since 2019. On the whole, the industries with better performance are generally the industries with oversold in the early stage and improved fundamentals. At present, the oversold is mainly new energy, military industry, chips, etc., and the recent performance is more catalytic, and the fundamentals are expected to improve significantly. 2) From the perspective of expected improvement and policy orientation, pay attention to the media with meta universe Catalysis (virtual people, games, etc.), the computer catalyzed by digital economy planning, agricultural breeding with Festival effect, and the new and old infrastructure with clear policy orientation.
