On the last trading day of the year of the ox, the stock index bottomed out in the morning and rebounded again in the afternoon, once falling more than 1%; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose for a time and fell lower at the end of the session; The gem index rose by nearly 2% at one time, and the decline narrowed significantly at the end of the session. As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 0.97% to 3361.44 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to 13328.06 points, and the gem index rose 0.07% to 2908.94. Point; The total turnover of the two cities was 818.9 billion yuan. Today is the last trading day in January. From the monthly line, the Shanghai index fell 7.65% in January, the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29% and the gem index fell 12.45%.
For the upcoming post holiday market, Bohai Securities pointed out that we reviewed the performance of the market before and after the Spring Festival in recent 10 years. In the range from January to the Spring Festival, the probability of synchronous adjustment of Shanghai stock index and gem index is not high. It has only occurred twice, and there is a certain market in the corresponding post holiday market. For the gem index, the probability of rising after the Spring Festival in recent ten years is high. As long as there is no rise significantly independent of the market before the festival, there is room for game after the festival. Therefore, on the whole, the market after the festival is relatively optimistic, and investors should actively layout to meet the market after the festival.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) believes that the current adjustment of the A-share market is coming to an end, and the market situation in February after the Spring Festival is very worth looking forward to.
First, the current market adjustment range has been relatively sufficient. We have counted the cumulative decline in the duration of previous sharp decline adjustments since 2010. Taking the gem index with a large decline in this adjustment as an example, from December 14, 2021 to January 27, 2022, the gem index has fallen by 16.9% in total. In terms of the duration and range of decline, it is close to the average level of previous sharp decline adjustments.
Second, the current policies, measures and environment are very friendly to the market. In terms of monetary policy, the people’s Bank of China maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guided financial institutions to effectively expand credit supply, and continued to reduce the financing costs of enterprises, especially small, medium and micro enterprises. In terms of fiscal policy, we should appropriately advance infrastructure construction, and implement the large-scale combined tax reduction and fee reduction policy. At the same time, in the recent sharp market adjustment, we saw a number of fund companies announce that they will use their own funds to buy their fund products and promise a long holding period.
Third, from the statistical law, the probability of A-share market rising in February is very high. The so-called “spring agitation” market in the A-share market is actually the market in February. In the 22 years from 2000 to 2021, the probability of the rise of the wind all a index in February is as high as 77%, which is the month with the highest probability of rise in all months. On the one hand, this is because the market liquidity environment in February was relatively loose, on the other hand, it also reflects the market’s policy expectations for the next two sessions in March. In January 2022, when there has been a large adjustment in the market, the subsequent market is more worthy of expectation.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities expressed firm confidence and optimistic about the post holiday market of a shares. The negative impact on the denominator side is intensive, the confidence on the numerator side is insufficient, the pre holiday trading level disturbance is superimposed, and the pre holiday market continues to adjust. Looking forward to the Spring Festival, 1) positive factors will be gradually revised upward. After experiencing the real estate credit risk and local hidden debt problems in recent years, the market inevitably hesitates to stabilize growth. However, at present, the local two sessions have been held one after another, and the word “stability” will take the lead. The steady growth policy will accelerate and exert its force. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the molecular end after the year. 2) Negative factors will accelerate convergence. At present, the market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. Recently, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level, and the downward space is limited. 3) In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
