The year of the A-share bull ended with a sharp fall! Investors fell "cool" but institutions were optimistic about buying points in the first half of the year

For the fund, hot search is a common occurrence. But the recent A shares have also become a frequent visitor on the hot search.

On January 28, the last trading day of the year of the ox, the A-share market pulled back again, and the Shanghai stock index rebounded in a V-shaped way in the morning. It rose briefly in the afternoon, that is, it fell all the way and returned to the intraday low. The selling pressure of heavyweights such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) was large at the end of the day. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose by more than 3% to ensure that the gem index closed red. The turnover of the market was 0.82 trillion, which was basically the same month on month.

(the year of the ox ended with a sharp decline in a shares)

On the disk, coal, Baijiu, automobiles, semiconductors and financial sector adjustment, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell by about 4%, Byd Company Limited(002594) fell 6%, China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) and so on. Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) , Bengang Steel Plates Co.Ltd(000761) fell by the limit, and the steel sector was under pressure. The Chinese prefix also failed to come forward, and the shares of central enterprises in large infrastructure construction did their best. Duty free shops, agriculture and education sectors strengthened, and tourism stocks rose in a large area in the afternoon.

this decline is not the other one. There are more than 3300 a shares, and the individual stocks are red

Although A-Shares have been adjusted one after another, the difference from the previous sharp decline is that in the summary on the last trading day before the festival, the number of shares in the two cities rose by more than 3300, and the market sentiment has obviously warmed up. As of the closing on January 28, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97% to close at 3361.44; The Shenzhen composite index fell 0.53% to close at 13328.06; The gem index rose 0.08% to close at 2908.94.

(more than 3300 stocks closed at the red Market)

From the overall performance of the A-share market in the year of the ox, wandequan a showed a wide range of shocks from February 18, 2021 to January 28, 2022, with a cumulative decline of 6%. From the distribution of individual stocks rising and falling on January 28, there were more than 3300 individual stocks rising, and the number of companies trading at the limit reached 55. Compared with the previous trading day, the market sentiment was significantly warmer.

(the cumulative decline of A-Shares in the year of the ox was 6%)

Although the year of the ox A shares fell as a whole, from the perspective of the sector, they basically rose and fell. Among them, the coal sector increased by 43.05%, ranking the first in the sector, and the public utilities and steel sectors increased by more than 20%. Among the falling sectors, social services, beauty care, medicine and biology, food and beverage, household appliances and other sectors fell significantly.

the risk aversion of funds is high, and the net outflow of main funds exceeds 130 billion yuan

In terms of capital, from the perspective of industry capital flow this week, in the last trading week of the year of the ox, the net outflow of main capital was more than 130 billion yuan, and the net outflow of most industries, of which the net outflow of information technology sector exceeded 30 billion yuan, ranking the first; The net outflow of industry, health care, materials, optional consumption and other sectors is also high.

(in the last trading week of the year of the ox, the net outflow of funds going north was more than 130 billion yuan)

On January 28, the net sales of northbound funds reached 12.467 billion yuan, exceeding 10 billion yuan for two consecutive days and 26.072 billion yuan this week. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the A-share market is closed for up to one week. For risk avoidance, some funds may choose to leave temporarily.

From the point of time when northbound funds sold more than 10 billion yuan in a single day, there have been seven times since 2021, and the net sales of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan in the last two trading days of this month.

The same is true for the two financing funds. As of January 27, the balance of A-share margin trading was 1743.672 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.517 billion yuan compared with 1757.189 billion yuan on the previous trading day. From the recent market performance, with the continuous correction of the market, the two financing funds also fell rapidly and fell below the 1.8 trillion mark, a decrease of about 100 billion yuan compared with the end of last year.

institutions are generally optimistic: A-share overshoot brings a better layout of the market in the first half of the year. Buy

Although the year of the ox market ended in a sigh from investors, who said that this year was a little "cool", looking forward to the year of the tiger, the agency believes that the overshoot of A-Shares has brought better layout and buying points for the market in the first half of the year.

Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, said that with the recent interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, the market risk aversion was released intensively. From the perspective of fundamentals and market factors, the conditions for counterattack in the A-share market have been met. Chen Guo believes that the current policy still leaves sufficient space for continuous promotion, and there is a trend to accelerate and strengthen the promotion.

Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that, first, the short-term adjustment of the market deviates from the trend of China's monetary easing, and external changes such as the loose exit of the Federal Reserve will not restrict the "me dominated" Chinese policy style, nor change the trend of long-term additional allocation of A-Shares by foreign capital. Secondly, the short-term adjustment of the market also deviates from the fundamental trend supported by the policy. The time point of the greatest downward pressure on China's economy has passed. After the monetary force exceeds expectations, the relay of other ministries and local governments is expected to form a policy synergy, and the "policy bottom" has been clarified. Finally, the policy exit path of the Federal Reserve in the first half of the year has been clear, the sensitivity of US stocks and US bonds has been reduced after full response in the early stage, and the actual risk of overseas markets is expected to be small during the long holiday. Under the resonance of "emotional bottom" and "market bottom", the overshoot of A-Shares brought better layout and buying points for the market in the first half of the year.

Guan Tao, the world's chief economist, said that the market has overreacted in recent days, and the impact of external adverse factors on market sentiment is short-term. The trend of China's economy from stable to good has not changed. Especially after the central economic work conference, various policies and measures to stabilize growth have been gradually implemented, and there is still a lot of room for monetary, fiscal and other macro policies. Recently, the central bank has strengthened open market operation, and the market liquidity is relatively abundant. After comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market in recent years, the internal structure of the A-share market has undergone profound changes, the valuation level is more reasonable, the market toughness is significantly enhanced, and there is little possibility of continuous adjustment.

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