The proportion of 2021q4 fund’s heavy positions in food and beverage continued to decline, and the rise of the sector outperformed the market in the fourth quarter. The proportion of 2021q4 food and beverage fund’s heavy positions was 7.5%, down 1.6pct month on month, and the position was at a new low in nearly five quarters. In the molecular industry, Baijiu allocation ratio dropped from 6.9% of 2021Q3 to 6.5% of 2021Q4. Fourth quarter most Baijiu fund holdings have been reduced, but some wine enterprises have increased fund holdings, reflecting the new fund approach, the old fund to reduce positions, the overall Baijiu heavy market value has dropped. In Baijiu food and beverage, the proportion of dairy products and condiment decreased slightly. 2021Q4 the proportion of non heavy Baijiu food fund has dropped from 0.17pct to 1.04%. We predict that due to the impact of the epidemic in some areas, the consumption of spring festival may be lower than expected, adding that the base of 2021q1 is high, the performance of Listed Companies in 2022q1 may be under slight pressure, and the position of food and beverage in the first quarter may continue to decline.
Top ten analysis: the number of fund holdings generally increased, and the proportion of market value of most holdings fell (1) from the number of funds held by food and beverage companies, the number of funds held by Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) among the top ten companies in 2021q4 decreased, and the number of funds held by other enterprises rebounded. The change in the ranking is that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) fell out of the top ten, and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) came in to fill the place. (2) In terms of the proportion of the market value of fund holdings: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) has rebounded, while the proportion of the market value of other holdings has fallen. In terms of ranking, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) ranks higher and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ranks lower. Overall, the number of fund holdings generally increased in the fourth quarter of 2021, but the proportion of market value held by most companies fell. Varieties with price increase expectations are favored by funds.
Among the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund, food occupies 5 seats, consumer companies still occupy the top ten heavyweight stocks of the fund as a whole, and food and beverage occupy 3 seats: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . Among the top ten heavyweight stocks, consumer companies occupy five seats (in addition to food and beverage companies, there are Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) in the pharmaceutical industry), which is still the mainstream of configuration.
Investment suggestion: Baijiu dynamic marketing feedback is steady, and four main lines are optimized. The Spring Festival Baijiu has basically been completed and ready for the real sale stage. At present, the epidemic situation has little impact on the payment collection of manufacturers, and there is differentiation in different regions of mobile sales: due to the stricter control in the epidemic area, the flat sales are also expected; However, more regions have not been affected by the epidemic, and the mobile sales still maintain a good momentum. The Spring Festival sales of Baijiu will last until the first month, and many epidemic situations are effectively controlled. The consumption of part of the loss before the festival may be compensated after the festival. It is predicted that the sales of the famous spring festival wine will keep growing. For the 2022 sector market, we should take an optimistic look: first, we should closely follow the main line of consumption upgrading, and we should also arrange Baijiu, especially the high-end and secondary high-end price bands. On the other hand, it is strategically optimistic that the transition of the price belt of the beer sector will bring opportunities for the release of enterprise profits. Second, pay attention to the theme of price transmission and layout price increasing varieties, such as condiments; Third, pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by Rural Revitalization under the background of common prosperity. Fourth, in 2021, some industries were in business difficulties due to the impact of base number, epidemic situation and channel structure transformation. A reversal is expected in 2022, focusing on opportunities in the snack food industry.
Risk tips: macroeconomic downturn, slowing consumer demand, rising raw material prices and food safety risks.
