Key points:
Event: glory and oppo released folding screen mobile phones, and oppo find n ordered more than one million units. On January 10, 2022, glory released the first folding flagship glory Magic V, starting from RMB 9999; On December 15, 2021, oppo released its first folding screen flagship oppo find n at a price of 7699. On January 10, 2022, oppo announced on its official microblog that the number of online reservations of oppo find n exceeded one million. The entry of glory and the hot sales of oppo folding machine show that the folding machine has received more attention in the industry and consumers.
On February 21, 2019, Samsung released the world's first folding machine Galaxy fold, priced at US $1980. On February 24 of the same year, Huawei released the world's second folding machine mate x, priced at about US $2500. Huawei and Samsung successively released folding machines, opening the prelude to the folding machine market. However, due to the immature folding machine industry chain and high mobile phone prices, the shipment of folding machines in 2019 was only 500000. In 2020, only Samsung and Huawei will launch folding machines among mainstream mobile phone manufacturers.
By 2021, other mobile phone manufacturers have followed up with the release of folding machines. In March, Xiaomi released its first folding machine, in December, oppo released its first folding machine, in January 2022, glory released its first folding machine, and the folding machines of Samsung and Huawei are also iterating steadily. Cinno research said that vivo is expected to release its first folding machine in early 2022.
At present, Samsung is the only folding machine in the world. Samsung is the main application adapter of folding machine in the world. Samsung folding machine adopts its own panel, cover material, drive chip and other core components, which has technical and cost advantages. At present, only Samsung uses UTG glass with better performance. The depreciation of Samsung's poled production line will end in 2022, and its folding machine cost is expected to decline further. According to the data of counterpoint, Samsung currently has a market share of more than 88% in the folding machine industry, which is expected to be about 75% by 2023.
Folding machine ushered in a high growth period, and the domestic supply chain was actively laid out
After two years of development, the folding machine has made great progress in use experience and technology. The screen creases of Galaxy fold in 2019 and Galaxy fold 2 in 2020 are obvious, while by Galaxy Z flip3 in 2021, the creases of front view have basically disappeared. Hinge is one of the core components of the folding machine, which plays the role of connecting the folding screen and will significantly affect the crease and durability of the screen. The hinge technology has been significantly improved in the past two years. Glory Magic V, Huawei P50 pocket and oppo find n all adopt water drop hinge technology, which is compared with the previous generation of U-shaped hinge technology, The effect of water drop hinge to eliminate creases is better than that of U-shaped creases, and it will also reduce screen wear. Samsung Galaxy Z fold3 / flip3 adopts the upgraded self-developed hinge. The display screen of folding machine has achieved multi-level progress, including the increase of folding times, the reduction of power consumption and the reduction of cost.
At the same time of technological progress, the price of folding machines is also declining. The price of Galaxy Z flip3 starts from US $1000, P50 pocket starts from RMB 8988 and oppo find n starts from RMB 7699. Compared with the previous two generations of folding machines, the price has decreased significantly. The rapid growth of folding machine sales is driven by the progress of technology, the reduction of selling price and the collective entry of major mobile phone manufacturers. According to the prediction of cinno research, the sales volume of folding machines in the global market is expected to reach 15.69 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 107%, the sales volume of folding machines in 2025 is expected to reach 57.4 million, and the compound Growth Rate CAGR from 2022 to 2023 is 54%.
At present, Chinese mobile phone supply chain manufacturers are also actively laying out folding machine related products. BOE has supplied folding OLEDs to glory, Shenzhen Everwin Precision Technology Co.Ltd(300115) mainly involving the hinge integration part of the folding screen, and exclusively supplying oppo find n frame products. The target customers of the company's folding machine related products are mainly Samsung, oppo and vivo. Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) has the mass production capacity of UTG glass and Xinlun New Materials Co.Ltd(002341) has CPI film products. With the rapid growth of folding machine market, relevant businesses of Chinese supply chain manufacturers are expected to usher in high growth.
Investment advice
Driven by technological progress, lower prices and the entry of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, the folding machine market has ushered in a high growth period. We are optimistic about relevant manufacturers in China's folding screen mobile phone supply chain and give the "overweight" rating to the folding screen mobile phone industry.
Risk tips
The risk that the technical iteration is not as expected; Risk that the sales volume of folding machine is lower than expected.
