Today is the last trading day of A-Shares in the year of the ox. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.53% and the gem index rose 0.08%.
Looking back on the market in January, the three major stock indexes fell in shock, and the growth style fell ahead. On the whole, the high valuation of popular stocks, the lower than expected incremental funds and the transmission of overseas risk factors are regarded as the reasons for the decline of the market.
however, at the current time point, institutions generally believe that the above risks have been fully digested. At the same time, more positive factors are converging, and the “bottom of the market” of A-Shares is close at hand.
After combing, the recent positive changes in the A-share market can be roughly summarized into three aspects: good basic orientation, capital recovery and overseas risk mitigation.
the “steady growth” policy is gradually implemented
steady growth in core asset performance
Looking back on this week’s A-share market, some heavyweights have taken the lead in showing the momentum of stabilization.
First of all, under the general tone of “taking the lead in stability and seeking progress in stability”, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the people’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Commerce and other departments have recently revealed the policy ideas and starting points of 2022. Local governments have also made clear the strength and key direction of this year’s “steady growth” policy combination, and the “steady growth” policy is expected to be implemented gradually.
In this context, the main line of “steady growth” has become the focus of funds. On the one hand, the stock prices of Listed Companies in the traditional infrastructure chain and real estate chain have a strong trend. For example, the stock prices of leading companies with a market value of 100 billion China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) rose 4% against the trend in January, and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and other companies have gained since the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, new energy under the “double carbon” goal is still a high-speed track supported by policies. The share price of new energy core assets represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has recovered significantly recently.
Today, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) shares hit the bottom and rebounded, up more than 3%. According to the performance forecast disclosed last night, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2021 is expected to achieve a net profit of 14 billion yuan to 16.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.75% to 195.52%. Among them, the net profit of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in the fourth quarter of last year was almost equal to the sum of the first three quarters, and the industrial prosperity was prominent.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Qin Peijing’s strategy team believes that the short-term adjustment range of the A-share market has deviated from the fundamental trend supported by the policy, and the policy will once again guide funds to gather consensus. After the force of monetary policy, other relay policies are forming a joint force. In addition, the local two sessions show that the trend of stabilizing the economy with investment is obvious.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that as investors’ confidence in the “steady growth” policy continues to strengthen, the consensus on the main line of “steady growth” will continue to improve, and market confidence and sentiment will also be boosted.
marginal improvement of fund issuance
the attraction of A-share market is still obvious
It is generally believed in the industry that the lower than expected opening seniority is the direct cause of the downturn in market performance. Among them, the issue rhythm of public funds has attracted the most attention.
According to the data of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , in the first two trading weeks of 2022 (as of January 14), partial equity funds issued only 27.4 billion shares, far lower than the level in the same period of 2020 and 2021.
However, this phenomenon has improved marginally recently. According to the data of from January 17 to 25, partial stock funds issued 61.9 billion new shares, and 89.2 billion shares have been issued since the beginning of the year, basically returning to the normal level, attracting fresh water to the market.
At the same time, the willingness and scale of fund self purchase have also increased significantly in the near future. In December 2021, the self purchase scale of partial stock funds reached 523 million yuan, a new high since July 2015. This week, more than ten head public offerings successively released self purchase plans. Obviously, from the perspective of fund managers, the current market is also at the bottom.
In addition to mainland institutions have “real gold and silver” optimistic about the market prospect, the trend of foreign capital inflow into A-Shares has not slowed down.
Although disturbed by the adverse factors of the rise in US bond interest rates, northbound funds have still shown a net inflow since the beginning of the year, with a cumulative net purchase amount of 16.773 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. According to other data, the average daily net inflow of foreign capital in China’s stock market reached US $413 million in the first three weeks of 2022. China’s steady and active regulation policies and less inflationary pressure continued to inject confidence into overseas investors.
Goldman Sachs, an international investment bank, recently released a report that China’s capital market opening and reform momentum is strong, making the A-share market more valuable and accessible to international investors. This is partly reflected in the record northward capital inflow in 2021 and the high allocation of A-Shares of global mutual funds.
“The A-share market is large, highly liquid and growing, but the allocation of international investors is insufficient. We believe that A-share is a strategic investment asset category that can not be ignored for global equity investors. In 2022, we still recommend high allocation of A-share.” Goldman Sachs stressed.
overseas risks gradually eased
the A-share market is expected to “focus on me”
Since the end of last year, overseas risk factors have continued to accumulate, including the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike expectation, the sharp rise of us long-term bond interest rate, overseas geopolitical tensions, and the sharp decline of US stocks.
however, with the passage of time and the landing of relevant risk events, institutions generally said that A-Shares would return to the state of “I dominated”.
Chen Guo, chief strategist of China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) said that the impact of external factors on A-Shares is relatively indirect. A few days ago, the Fed’s interest rate meeting did not exceed market expectations in the timing and range of interest rate increase and contraction, and the market has also responded to this to a considerable extent. Under the background of gradual stability of market expectations, China’s exports to the United States and the RMB exchange rate remain strong in the short term.
“Therefore, I believe that after the landing of the Fed’s interest rate meeting, the A-share market should no longer regard external factors as the main contradiction in the next stage.” Chen Guo thinks.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Yidong, the world’s chief strategic analyst, also said that the turmoil in the overseas market will not pose a major risk to a shares, and A-Shares will be “dominated by me” in the follow-up. In his opinion, China’s policy environment will enter the stage of “stabilizing the economy” in 2022, the investment clock will gradually recover, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will remain stable. Therefore, in 2022, A-Shares have better allocation and cost performance.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) the macro and strategy team jointly released a report a few days ago, firmly saying that they “look at the post holiday market of A-Shares with optimism”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the current market is gradually pricing the changes in overseas liquidity expectations. The negative impact of overseas liquidity expectations before the year is being accelerated. At the same time, the real estate credit risk will be gradually implemented after the year, and the negative factors at the denominator will accelerate the convergence. Recently, the short-term risk appetite of investors has been at a low level, and the downward space is limited. In addition, from the perspective of calendar effect, it can also be observed that the market performance after the Spring Festival over the years is significantly better than that before the Spring Festival. Overall, the A-share market is expected to gradually recover after the Spring Festival.
